Does Trump still have the same grip on the GOP?

“The 360” shows you diverse perspectives on the day’s top stories and debates.

What’s happening

For most of the past six years, the conventional wisdom in Washington has been that any Republicans who stand up to Donald Trump will either be quickly brought in line or find themselves cast aside. That theory has been tested over the past few weeks as some of the most prominent members of the GOP have directly challenged the former president and his allies in the party.

Much of the disagreement centers around Trump’s false insistence that he won the 2020 election and his defense of people who rioted at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Former Vice President Mike Pence called Trump’s assertion that Pence could have overturned the results of the Electoral College “wrong” and “un-American” while speaking to the conservative Federalist Society earlier this month. Several Republican senators publicly defended Pence’s statements.

Last week Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell rebuked the Republican National Committee for suggesting the Jan. 6 insurrection was “legitimate political discourse” in a measure censuring GOP Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger over their criticism of Trump. McConnell’s willingness to defy Trump isn’t limited to just public statements. According to the New York Times, the influential Washington Republican is “desperately maneuvering to try to thwart” Trump’s campaign to elect loyalists to key offices across the country in the upcoming midterm elections.

Why there’s debate

In the eyes of some political observers, these recent criticisms may be part of a trend that is showing Trump’s command over the Republican Party beginning to slip. The former president is still clearly the most popular figure in the GOP, but a handful of recent polls provide evidence that the extent of his dominance could be shrinking. An NBC News survey from last month, for example, showed that the percentage of Republican voters who consider themselves more loyal to Trump than to the party itself has declined substantially over the past year. “No one should be afraid of President Trump, period,” Sen. Susan Collins of Maine told the Times.

Skeptics of this theory argue that even if Trump’s numbers have dipped a few points in some polls, the overwhelming majority of the GOP base is still squarely behind him — even when it comes to divisive topics like the integrity of the 2020 election. Others argue that Trump has extraordinary advantages like his massive fundraising ability and power to consume media attention that no one else in the party can come close to challenging.

What’s next

Over the next few months, the weight of Trump’s influence will be repeatedly tested in Republican primary races across the country. He has endorsed more than 100 candidates, many of whom are seeking to unseat high-profile GOP incumbents who have drawn his ire. The results of those contests could provide a clearer picture of how much sway Trump still holds over the party’s voters and how clear his path to the Republican nomination might be if he chooses to run again in 2024.

Perspectives

Trump’s grip is slipping

Republicans have to move on from Trump to retake power in Washington

“As the Biden administration flails aimlessly, Republicans have an opportunity on the horizon. But if they fail to heed the sober voices of Mr. McConnell, Mr. Pence and a growing number of other GOP leaders, and instead opt to stare out the back window complaining about ‘stolen’ elections, they might find the political tail winds have turned into a headlong gale.” — Editorial, Las Vegas Review-Journal

Anti-Trump Republicans have a window to sideline him if they play the strategy right

“??Trump has never been weaker or more vulnerable to replacement than today. He might Houdini his way out of trouble once more. You can never count him out. But there has never been a better moment for the mice to bell the Trump cat than there is today.” — Jack Shafer, Politico

Trump’s obsession with the 2020 election is causing his support to slowly dwindle

“Donald Trump can’t seem to quit spreading lies about election fraud. Then again, I don’t believe he wants to. … But, something has changed. Trump’s ongoing delusional rant is wearing thin … on Republicans.” — EJ Montini, Arizona Republic

Trump is still very strong but is weaker today than he was a year ago

“There are factors working against him now: He’s hampered by the fact that he has no social-media presence, and … you have rising stars like DeSantis making a name for themselves and pushing for Trumpian policies without having some of the same baggage that the former president does. … I by no means think Trump is dead, but do I think his grip on the GOP is loosening since he left office? Absolutely.” — Alex Samuels, FiveThirtyEight

Republicans are learning to capitalize on Trumpism without Trump

“Seven years after Trump first emerged as a significant political force, and with him now in semi-retirement post-2020, the party seems finally to have figured out how to use to its own advantage what made him appealing. Trumpism, if you will, has been licensed out like so many Trump products before.” — Philip Bump, Washington Post

Trump is as strong as ever

The GOP is still Trump’s party to its core

“This is Trump’s party. What’s more, it’s a cult of personality built around the whims and wants of the former President. Disagreement with Trump — even if you have the facts or even the Constitution on your side — is not tolerated. You are either with Trump on his wild conspiracy theory that the election was stolen from him, or you are his (and the base’s) mortal enemy.” — Chris Cillizza, CNN

Claims that Trump is weakening are purely wishful thinking from his detractors

“It bears emphasizing that Trump is broadly unpopular with the public at large. … But for now, any erosion of his standing with Republicans remains slight or nonexistent — despite what the skeptics might hope.” — Niall Stanage, The Hill

Trump will rule the GOP for as long as he chooses to

“The next leader of the Republican party won’t be a politician who challenges Trump and unseats him. The Republican party is a totalitarian state and in autocracies, you ascend to the throne by being loyal to the boss and positioning yourself to take over when he passes on.” — Jonathan V. Last, Bulwark

Trump will reassert his dominance once his 2024 campaign begins in earnest

“Trump has some built-in advantages that are unlikely to change. When the election machine truly kicks in, Trump will no doubt garner a vast majority of the media attention once again. He obviously enjoys unrivaled name recognition. And Trump’s absence from office this term could give him an edge because he has not had to take the blame for what now feels like an endless pandemic.” — Jay Caspian Kang, New York Times

The fact that Pence’s critique counts as news shows how unassailable Trump really is

“Pence’s statement was taken as a brave stand for the constitutional order and the rule of law not because it was some authentic declaration of his party’s sturdy values but because so few Republicans are willing to be forthright about Trump’s efforts to overturn a legitimate election — and his ongoing efforts to subvert the next one — that even a tatty and insincere facsimile of civic virtue seems daring by comparison.” — Alex Shephard, New Republic

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