Domestic extremists and conspiracy theorists pose greatest threat during election: Reports

Federal intelligence agencies have identified domestic extremists driven by election-related conspiracy theories as the most likely source of violence during next week’s election, according to a new report from NBC News. That assessment is mirrored by two new studies from groups that monitor domestic extremism.

Meanwhile, USA TODAY reports on the family of Stewart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers, who fear for their lives if former President Donald Trump pardons Rhodes. There’s also a great longread on the downfall of a neo-Nazi in rural Maine, and a company is selling political data pinpointing whether people support QAnon, the Jan. 6 insurrection and other far-right causes.

It’s the week in extremism.

Report: Conspiracy driven domestic extremists pose election threat

Domestic extremists driven by grievances about alleged election fraud and conspiracy theories pose the greatest threat of violence over next week’s election, according to a joint intelligence briefing from the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security reported on this week by NBC News.

• From NBC: “The report identified the potential targets as candidates, elected officials, election workers, members of the media and judges involved in election cases. The potential threats include physical attacks and violence at polling places, ballot drop boxes, voter registration locations and rallies and campaign events.”

• This assessment mirrors what experts in extremism have told USA TODAY. In interviews and calls with experts from the Anti-Defamation League, the Global project on Hate and Extremism and the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, experts who monitor domestic extremism expressed concerns about flare-ups at polling stations and especially vote-counting centers in swing states.

• Most experts USA TODAY spoke with are in a “wait and see” stage and are concerned about potential flashpoints — especially if they are promoted by Trump, who infamously called on his supporters to gather at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

• While many of the organized groups that formed the backbone of the Jan. 6 insurrection have splintered or disbanded, the possibility for violence remains very real, according to the intelligence report viewed by NBC:

• “The United States remains in a heightened, dynamic threat environment and we continue to share information with our law enforcement partners about the threats posed by domestic violent extremists in the context of the 2024 election,” DHS spokesperson Mayra Rodriguez told the network in a statement.

Extremism reports also point to election-related violence

Two other reports released this week by groups that monitor domestic extremism also raise the specter of election-related violence in the days and weeks to come.

• A new report from the Global project on Hate and Extremism looked at online “chatter” about the election and cautions that the rhetoric circulating today mirrors what was seen in the days before the 2020 election.

• On the secure messaging platform Telegram, for example, GPAHE noted: “Much like in 2020, violent rhetoric related to election denialism has risen 317 percent over the course of October 2024. Posts made on Telegram include using election denialism to justify an apparent ‘inevitable civil war’ and a call to ‘Shoot to kill any illegal voters.’ ”

• Meanwhile, a new report from the Bridging Divides Initiative at Princeton University outlined a trend that USA TODAY has been monitoring for the last two years: Rising numbers of threats against public workers, particularly election officials.

• BDI researchers interviewed more than 150 election officials across the country and concluded: “These conversations have painted a concerning picture of hostility at the local level, but they have also revealed the wide array of tools officials are leveraging to respond to threats and harassment.”

Oath Keepers founder’s family terrified he will be pardoned

A major USA TODAY report this week tells the story of Tasha and Dakota Adams and the family of Elmer Stewart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers, who was imprisoned for 18 years for seditious conspiracy last year. Rhodes’s family, who say they lived under his tyranny for decades, are terrified he will be pardoned by Trump and will seek revenge against them.

• Trump has been increasingly bombastic about his plans to pardon Jan. 6 insurrectionists if he wins next week’s election. His campaign would not comment on whether he would pardon Rhodes, saying the former president will make decisions on a “case-by-case basis.”

• Rhodes, who received the second-longest sentence related to Jan. 6, is divorced from Tasha Adams, who accused him of years of physical and mental abuse of her and her six children. Adams and her eldest son fear Rhodes will seek retribution because she testified against him during his prosecution and because of past conflicts.

• “He is somebody that had a kill list — always,” Adams told USA TODAY, noting the list was something Rhodes kept in his head, rather than on paper.  “And obviously, now I'm on this list, and so are some of my kids, I'm sure.”

• Rhodes’ lawyers say there’s no evidence Rhodes poses a danger to Adams.

How a neo-Nazi was driven out of Maine

Another great long-read this week comes from The Atavist Magazine, which has a story about nao-Nazi Christopher Pohlhaus, otherwise known as “Hammer” who tried and failed to set up a white supremacist compound in rural Maine.

Pohlhaus was driven out of America’s whitest state thanks to sleuthing by journalists that led to animosity against him from his neighbors.

Polling firm sells database of far-right conspiracy theorists

A political data polling company is selling a voter database identifying Americans based on their support for far-right conspiracy theories and so-called armed militia groups, according to a new report from Politico this week.

• From the story: “The company, L2 Data, collects a wide net of information about voter preferences on issues such as defense, spending and the economy. But unlike other data companies, L2 also measures or estimates voters’ support for the most divisive and potentially threatening threads of the extreme right.”

• According to Politico, the information sold by the firm has been purchased by politicians from both sides of the aisle.

Statistic of the week: More than one-fifth

That’s the proportion of U.S. Senators considered “at risk” of objecting to certifying the results of next week’s election on Jan. 6, according to new research from the voting rights advocacy association Public Wise.

Public Wise identified 24 sitting senators and seven candidates for US Senate who “either voted against certification, publicly stated plans to vote against certification in 2020, publicly questioned the results of the 2020 or 2022 elections, refused to say whether they would accept the results of the 2024 election, and/or spread disinformation about voting and elections.”

USA TODAY also asked every member of Congress last month whether they would certify the election. Of those who responded, the majority of incumbents vowed to uphold the election results

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Conspiracy theories pose biggest threat to election, reports reveal