Donald Trump Is Now the Weaker Candidate
It is tempting, when you look back at the raucous, joyous scenes from last week’s Republican National Convention, to assume that Donald Trump is stronger than ever. This is not the case.
The last insane, chaotic, stupid month in American politics has obscured a simple, basic truth: Trump is a deeply unpopular, eminently beatable politician. He is a man that most Americans do not like and do not want to vote for. And he is just as unpopular now as he was six months ago, or four years ago, or eight years ago. If you run a reasonably competent person against him without significant flaws, you have a more than reasonable chance of winning.
Joe Biden, as became very clear in last month’s debate, was not that person. On Sunday, he belatedly arrived at that conclusion himself. Enter Kamala Harris.
The next three months in American politics will undoubtedly be chaotic, and probably very aggravating. But Democrats are now in a significantly better position than they were on Sunday morning. They can run an energetic, positive campaign that highlights the numerous threats that Trump poses to the country. They can do this with Harris, a flawed nominee who also will be a perfect contrast to Trump, and an eminently qualified vice presidential nominee.
For most of the last year, Democrats could not adequately prosecute the case against Trump because their leader and presumptive nominee was simply not capable of it. Four years ago, Biden could shut down Trump—by literally telling him to “shut up.” That Biden is long gone, and his own deterioration made it difficult, and often impossible, to draw a sharp contrast. He often garbled the case for why, precisely, Trump’s return to the White House would be an existential threat. Trump is also old and deranged—but Biden was hardly the messenger for that argument, as he was markedly showing more signs of aging than his opponent.
What doesn’t get said enough—and here I agree with Team Biden’s whining about the press coverage—is that Trump and Biden are weak in some of the same ways. Trump is also really old! He also struggles to speak coherently and isn’t great on stairs! But “see, they’re both geriatric” was hardly an argument for why Biden should have remained in the race. In fact, it was the most compelling reason to put someone else, pretty much anyone else, atop the ticket. Against any other candidate, Trump’s diminishing abilities would be clear. His unpopularity would be overwhelming. He wouldn’t stand a chance.
Biden apparently came to realize this, and now Trump is the oldest presidential nominee in American history. What was the Democrats’ greatest liability—their nominee’s age—is now one of the many, many drags on the Republican ticket. Looking for a reason not to vote for Trump? You have several. At the end of his term, he will be older than Biden is now. He is a convicted felon. He is a fraudster. He has been found liable for sexual assault. He ran the most disorganized, incompetent presidential administration in American history. The risk of global conflict would skyrocket. He would reward autocrats and authoritarians of all stripes. He would use the presidency to enrich himself and his family. He is surrounded by right-wing ghouls. He is planning on deporting 10 million people. He is Donald Trump, for God’s sake. (How did we get here again?)
For a month, this case has been undermined by wholly legitimate concerns about Biden’s fitness for office. But there should be no concerns about Harris. She has been vice president for nearly four years and is more than capable of doing the job. As a campaigner, she can make—and has made, especially recently—the case that Trump poses a unique threat to the country.
There will be hand-wringing about Harris’s candidacy. Much of this will focus on her own mediocre run for president five years ago. This anxiety is misplaced, however. Yes, Harris is a limited politician without a clear ideological or policy program. That’s a problem in a party primary—and certainly was one for her in 2020. But she doesn’t have to worry about that now. She’s not trying to show how she’s different from other Democrats. She only needs to point to the Biden administration’s many successes. Having served as vice president for nearly four years, she is more than capable of running the country.
But Harris’s own qualifications pale in comparison to the case against Trump. That case is simple and easy to make. Donald Trump is a fascist. He is a felon. He will be the oldest president in American history. All the Democrats need is someone who can repeat these facts again and again. Joe Biden sadly wasn’t that person. Kamala Harris is.
