What early voting has told us so far about how the 2024 election will turn out
As Donald Trump and Kamala Harris make their final pitches to voters ahead of Election Day, ballots are already pouring in as early voting continues.
More than 67 million Americans have already made their choice, according to the University of Florida’s early voting tracker.
Both campaigns and their supporters, predictably, are looking to project a hopeful message ahead of Tuesday.
The Trump campaign, for instance, has put out a battleground state analysis claiming the former president is on the “verge” of victory in a majority of toss-up states needed to win the Electoral College.
Democrats are pointing to a recent set of Marist polls, showing Harris leading Trump in the so-called “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
The Independent’s poll tracker, meanwhile, shows the candidates basically tied, with Harris maintaining a slight lead.
So what can we learn from early voting results?
Early voting is here to stay
In 2020, more than 101 million people voted early by this point in the race, and though pandemic fears around in-person voting have faded, there are still nearly 20 million more early votes now than there were in 2012 (46.2 million) and 2016 (47.2 million), according to the BBC.
Women are turning out strongly
Overall, 55 percent of the early vote so far has been from women, according to a Politico analysis this week, a trend that will give both parties something to be pleased about. Democrats typically do better with women overall, while significant numbers of GOP women have also voted early in 2024.
Encouraging signs for Harris in Michigan
In Detroit, the city clerk predicts between 53 and 55 percent of registered voters will take part in the 2024 race once early and Election Day votes are fully counted, surpassing 2016 and 2020 levels, a positive sign for Democrats, who are hoping the state’s urban centers turn out for Harris.
Last-minute polls in the state are mixed for the Democrat, with the Detroit Free Press finding Harris with a three-point lead and growing support from women and Black voters, but noting that chance of victory is within the margin of error. Another measure, the Suffolk University / USA Today poll, shows the candidates tied.
Trump surges in Nevada amid the death of the ‘Reid Machine’
Election watchers in Nevada, meanwhile, say early signs point to Trump.
As of Thursday, Republicans had a more than five-point lead in early voting, with more than 60 percent of the likely overall vote cast, a reversal from Biden’s early lead in 2020 in the state, which he ultimately won.
That led one columnist in the Las Vegas Review-Journal to declare that the “Reid Machine” of Democratic influence, established by longtime Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, “may be dead.”
A ‘silver surge’ for the Dems in Pennsylvania
A reversal in the opposite direction seems to be underway in Pennsylvania, where registered Democrats accounted for about 58 percent of the senior vote, a key constituency for Republicans, who only have about 35 percent over the 65+ crowd so far.
“Our expectation going into the early vote was that it would, in general, skew substantially more Republican than in 2020,” Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart, told Politico of this “silver surge.”
It’s all the more surprising given that Republicans are starting to abandon their open hostility toward early voting.
“There is no more pandemic, Democrats were more Covid conscious … and Republicans have been pushing early voting.”
Mixed signals in Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, Democrats make up 34 percent of the projected early votes, compared to 25 percent for the GOP, according to NBC News.
That difference might not be particularly revealing, however, with a recent Marquette University Law School poll showing only a one-point difference between Harris and Trump, in favor of the Democrat.
Lagging early turnout for Harris and enthusiasm for Trump in North Carolina
Both campaigns have their eyes on North Carolina, where statewide Republican turnout has just overtaken the level at this point from 2020, while Democratic turnout in the crucial urban county of Mecklenburg, home to Charlotte, is about 40,000 less than last cycle, per Axios.
Record-breaking turnout in Georgia
In Georgia, over half of the state’s likely vote has already been cast, with NBC’s election tracker showing the GOP with a project lead over the Democrats of three points.
Those encouraging signs may be because of exceptionally high turnout in rural, low-population counties that are typically Republican strongholds in the state, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
More flipping for Arizona?
Trump won it in 2016. Biden took it back in 2020. And in 2024?
So far, more registered Republicans (41.9 percent) have turned in mail ballots than Democrats (34 percent) AZFamily reported earlier this week.