'Entirely unprecedented': Biden's exit, Harris' rise scrambles race in Wisconsin

WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden’s withdrawal and Vice President Kamala Harris’ apparent ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket this weekend has scrambled the playbook.

Especially in Wisconsin.

Democrats in the battleground state have largely coalesced around Harris as Republicans grapple with the idea they will not face Biden on the ballot in November. And while the last 48 hours have upended much of the previous two years, exactly what that means will play out in the coming months.

“There’s nothing in modern history that I can think of where you have a situation like this,” said Mark Graul, a longtime Republican strategist in Wisconsin. “It’s just entirely unprecedented.”

The weekend’s events came on the heels of a Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in which the GOP attempted to project a sense of unity following the assassination attempt against the 78-year-old former President Donald Trump. They painted Democrats as being in disarray over Biden’s future.

Now, Harris, 59, plans to march into the same city Tuesday in the first official stop of her nascent presidential campaign with just weeks to go until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Both Democrats and Republicans in Wisconsin have quietly acknowledged that Biden’s decision to drop out of the race has provided a boost to his party. The 81-year-old president had faced sharp questions about his age and viability following a disastrous debate performance last month. And polling since the debate had shown Trump with an edge in Wisconsin and other key states.

Some Democrats had worried Biden’s unpopularity would drag down other candidates in difficult races, like Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin — who has been polling ahead of the president in Wisconsin. But the emergence of Harris, while still closely tied to Biden as his vice president, has reinvigorated the party.

“I’d have to think that there will be a fundamental reset and relook by all the voters, except just the absolute partisans, at this ticket — (for) both parties,” said former Democratic Party of Wisconsin chairman Mike Tate, calling Trump’s decision to pick Ohio Sen. JD Vance, 39, as his running mate a “fresh new look.”

Wisconsin Democrats quick to support Kamala Harris

Signs of the Democratic excitement began to show shortly after Biden announced his intention to withdraw. Wisconsin Democrats, nearly all of whom had remained silent on whether Biden should remain in the race, praised his decision as the“patriotic” and right thing to do.

Nearly every one of the state’s top Democrats quickly threw their support behind Harris.

Rep. Mark Pocan, the only Wisconsin Democrat to publicly call on Biden to withdraw, told the Journal Sentinel just minutes after the announcement: “I am quite happy. I feel this is what we needed.”

Graul, the Republican strategist, said it was still “too soon to tell” how Biden’s withdrawal would impact things in Wisconsin but noted he thinks the move is “to the benefit of Democrats” given Biden’s downward trend.

And Wisconsin Republican Rep. Glenn Grothman made a similar comment to CBS58. “It is, I think, going to be more difficult to beat somebody who’s not Joe Biden,” Grothman said.

"In the short run, I think it trips up the Republicans, who have had a really wonderful week (with the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee)," said Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison."(Biden's) age, his feebleness, his mental capacity, those were the things that the public had major concerns about. … that's now gone as an issue."

Republican say strategy unchanged despite Biden's exit from race

Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Brian Schimming, however, told the Journal Sentinel this week that Republicans’ campaign strategy won’t change dramatically because Harris and Biden are “tied at the hip.”

“Everything he has done, she has been part of,” Schimming said of Biden and Harris. “So it's going to be pretty hard to run away from it now. As far as I'm concerned, Kamala Harris is Joe Biden: The Sequel.”

Schimming’s remarks hint at another potential aspect of the ticket change: the impact on down-ballot races. Baldwin’s Republican Senate opponent, Eric Hovde, for example, has sought to tie Baldwin directly to Biden as his popularity dropped in Wisconsin.

“It can become the Biden-Harris record as opposed to the Biden record,” Marquette University Law School poll director Charles Franklin said in an interview. “I’m sure Republicans are going to work hard to tie Harris to Biden and Biden’s record.”

But when it comes to potential notable impacts, Franklin pointed to enthusiasm.

“Maybe the most important thing is that it lifts the Democratic depression over Biden and his problems as a candidate,” Franklin said, noting Democratic enthusiasm for Biden had dropped since his debate performance.

He pointed out that Harris raised about $50 million in the 24 hours after launching her campaign.

“I think one of the real risks to Democrats… was the possibility that Biden would simply depress turnout in the state,” Franklin said. “I think Harris reverses that — giving a boost of enthusiasm to Democrats and Democratic activists.

Franklin said Marquette plans to begin a new survey of voters in Wisconsin and throughout the nation Wednesday, polling, among other things, Harris’ head-to-head matchup with Trump.

Democratic Party of Wisconsin Chairman Ben Wikler told reporters that all but a handful of Wisconsin's DNC delegates had pledged their support to Harris as of mid-afternoon Monday. The state party endorsed Harris as Wikler proclaimed that the "level of unity and energy is through the roof" with Democrats.

More: What Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race means for Wisconsin's DNC delegates

Democratic former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who now serves as president of Power to the Polls Wisconsin, said the "silver lining" to Biden's debate performance was that it led to serious discussions about the next generation’s role in politics and governing. He said the shake-up with Harris "feels like a campaign cycle rejuvenation.”

Barnes said it is now "all systems go" to help Harris defeat Donald Trump.

Baldwin on Monday told reporters that there was "a new beginning" within the party. She said she'd like to join Harris on Tuesday but wasn't sure if she could because the Senate is in session.

Harris comes Tuesday to a state where most statewide contests are decided by razor-thin margins — around 20,000 votes in both 2016, when Trump won, and 2020, when he lost to Biden.

“It’s hard to see this not being one of her first three stops,” Tate, the former state Democratic Party chairman, said of Harris’ planned visit. “It’s pretty great that it’s her first stop.”

Journal Sentinel reporters Hope Karnopp and Mary Spicuzza contributed.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Joe Biden's exit, Kamala Harris' rise scrambles race in Wisconsin