All eyes are on Nebraska's 'blue dot,' which could determine who wins the White House

OMAHA - It's challenging to drive through Nebraska's biggest city without seeing white signs with a singular blue circle peppering many front lawns. Though they don't have any words, names or messaging, these dots have become a symbol of Democratic support in a deep red state, beginning with Jason Brown's inaugural sign on his front yard.

With a nod to the Cornhusker State's 2nd District's electoral point, Democrats have coined the "blue dot," which they hope to deliver to Vice President Kamala Harris. Since the first blue dot went up at the end of August, Brown and his wife, Ruth, have received thousands of requests from people across the district and the state who want their own.

"I didn't realize the extent to which people needed to understand that our vote really does matter in this district," Brown said. "It's created an interesting buzz. Obviously, the biggest is right here in CD-2, that it's a neat way of saying Nebraska is getting itself on the map and in the conversation."

Across town, a dozen volunteers called voters, urging them to support former President Donald Trump from the campaign's state headquarters in a strip mall office space. One of the volunteers is Carolyn Neopdal, a retired nurse who joined the campaign last month and has knocked on doors in neighborhoods across town.

"Trust me, I do not have time to do this, but I'm taking time because it's important that we win this country back and get Trump in there, and it's important that we win this district," Nepodal said. "So I am doing whatever I can and talking to the people."

While they don't see eye-to-eye politically, Nebraskans in the area backing either Harris or Trump agree that the presidential election could hinge on their home district.

In 48 states and Washington, D.C., the winner gets all the electoral votes for that state. Maine and Nebraska assign their electors using a proportional system.

Recent polling in Nebraska's 2nd District shows Harris ahead of Trump by around eight points in the otherwise ruby-red state, according to the Nebraska Examiner.

With less than eight weeks until the general election, Republicans and Democrats are fighting tooth and nail for the state's one electoral vote, which could break a tie and get either candidate to 270 electoral votes, the necessary number to win the presidency.

The deep purple tug-a-war

Both the Trump and formerly Biden-turned-Harris campaigns have been present in the district for months, but both have recently kicked their operations into high gear, pouring money into ground operations and sending surrogates to stake claims in the area. Both know it could all come down to the Cornhusker State.

While most congressional districts consistently go for Republicans or Democrats, Nebraska's 2nd district is one of the last truly purple districts in the country, according to Barry Burden, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

"Even with the switch from Biden to Harris, it still looks like the district could be a tie-breaker in the electoral college if Harris is able to hold on to the three states in the Midwest, the so-called 'blue wall states,'" Burden said.

More: In battle between Trump and Harris, both campaigns target the Blue Wall

Nebraska's unique system drew national attention in April when conservatives from across the country, including Trump, urged Gov. Jim Pillen to usher a bill through the legislature to reinstate the state winner system. The effort didn't have the votes, but the possibility of Pillen calling a special session to push it through still hangs in the air.

Before Biden dropped out of the race, the campaign tapped Nebraska organizers Precious McKesson and Meg Mandy to serve as senior advisors in the state. Since Harris' candidacy announcement in July, her campaign has spent over $1.3 million in ad reservations in Omaha area television stations, while Trump advertisements haven't aired since January, according to Federal Communication Commission political files.

However, the Trump campaign has also been fired up.

Last month, the campaign opened an Omaha field office holding numerous phone banks and door-knocking events.

Republican National Convention chair Michael Whatley recently visited the district during the Protect the Vote tour, which focused on election integrity. Attendees received poll observation training. Although there were no known instances of voter fraud during the last presidential election in Nebraska, Whatley says this is to help restore faith in Republican voters who don't think their votes count.

"We are going to live in seven, eight, ten battleground states, and there's two congressional districts we really need to pay attention to, one up in Maine and this little place in Nebraska," Whatley said to the crowd of attendees.

The presidential election isn't the only competitive race in Nebraska's 2nd District. Rep. Don Bacon, who touts himself as one of the most moderate Republicans in Congress, is facing a second challenge from Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas.

Bacon first beat Vargas in 2020 by nearly three points, but national Democrats are still eying the race as one that could help them flip the House in November. For months, polling has swayed back and forth between the candidates, but the Cook Political Report recently changed it from Republican-leaning to a toss-up. Both candidates are raking in millions in campaign funding and hope that a presidential election year will boost voter turnout for either candidate.

But in a deeply moderate district where both candidates don't stray too far from the center, Bacon expressed concern that the Republican presidential candidate might put off some independent and nonpartisan voters.

"It's hard to overcome if the top of the ticket is significantly behind," Bacon said. "I'd sure like to have our nominee former President Trump, focus on the issues, personality attacks that doesn't play well in our district, or just the name calling does not play well in suburban USA, particularly in the Midwest."

The Walz effect

Besides its unique electoral system, Nebraska has drawn attention for another reason: it's the home state of Democratic VP pick Tim Walz, which the Harris campaign hopes will give them an edge.

His first campaign stop as Harris' VP pick was Omaha, where he showcased his Nebraska connections with a slew of state-specific references, slamming Trump's minimal connections to the state.

"Here in Nebraska, we have a slogan: 'Nebraska, it's not for everyone.' Well, it sure isn't for Donald Trump, I'll tell you that," Walz said.

Raised in rural small towns across the state, including West Point, Butte, and Valentine, Walz spent most of his life in Nebraska. He attended Chadron State College, served in the Nebraska Army National Guard and taught in Alliance, where he met his wife, Gwen.

Nebraska Democratic Party Chair Jane Kleeb says the Minnesota governor's Midwest roots and folksy charm are refreshing for voters who want to see everyday people in power.

"There's this sense that we don't have to hand him a briefing book. We don't have to hand him a Carhartt t-shirt. He automatically gets that," Kleeb said. "It's part of who he is, and that will make a big shift, not only in CD-2, which, of course, has a rural county attached to it, but it'll make a difference across the state and in some of our down-ballot races."

The Minnesota governor's candidacy isn't the only way the Midwest has taken centerstage this election.

Trump's vice presidential pick, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, also hails from the Midwest. Last month, Vance visited Nebraska for a private fundraiser in Omaha and met with supporters.

Randy Adkins, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Omaha, says the campaign's pick of Walz will bode well for their chances in the 2nd District, especially among nonpartisan and moderate voters.

"I'm not saying that Republicans have turned around to vote for Harris because of Tim Walz, it's just somebody recognizing the kind of values, the plain spoken-ness, the Midwestern values that when they see from somebody in this part of the country, I think is well recognized. Issues and positions set aside, I think that's playing very well here."

But Bacon, who knows the district's centrist nature all too well, says Walz's Nebraska roots won't sway the area's voters as much as people think, pointing to his policy record as Minnesota's governor.

"I feel lucky that the Democrats didn't pick Shapiro. I think he would have been much more effective in my swing district," Bacon said. "The policy stuff, I don't think will play well from Tim Walz in our district. The fact he has some Nebraska roots I think was initially a plus. But we start focusing on policy issues and they're too far left of center."

Ryan Wilkins, who helps run the Blue Dot Energy Facebook page, is excited to see a Nebraskan on the ballot and thinks it's contributing to what he views as one of the most energized campaigns he has ever seen in the district.

"To me, it was just a massive release, like a weight fell off my shoulder, just the weight I carry as an American citizen and as a dad who wants this country to be a democracy for my daughters," Wilkins said. "I'm well aware that there's a scenario in which my hometown could be a tipping point in this race, and not even an inconceivable scenario."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why the presidential race could come down to a 'blue dot' in Nebraska