Fact check: False claim 17 million immigrants to US expected during Biden's term

The claim: Biden administration predicts 17 million immigrants during four-year term

A March 2 Instagram post (direct link, archive link) shows the face of the Statue of Liberty with a tear rolling down its cheek.

"(Twelve) million immigrants passed through Ellis Island between 1892 and 1954, 12 million in 62 years," reads the post. "(Seventeen) million in 4 years now anticipated by Biden admin. This is not normal immigration – it is an invasion."

The post was liked more than 9,000 times in eight days.

Follow us on Facebook! Like our page to get updates throughout the day on our latest debunks

Our rating: False

Multiple experts told USA TODAY they are not aware of any estimate that says 17 million immigrants are expected to arrive in the U.S. during President Joe Biden's four-year term. Legal immigration in the first part of his term has actually been down in the wake of the pandemic.

Experts say estimate of 17 million immigrants is wrong, not real

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, policy director for the American Immigration Council, told USA TODAY he wasn't aware of any estimate from the federal government that says 17 million immigrants are expected to come to the U.S. during Biden's term, which ends in 2025.

"To my knowledge, no such estimate exists," Reichlin-Melnick said.

Michelle Mittelstadt, communications director for the Migration Policy Institute, said nobody with their organization was familiar with any such estimate either.

The number of legal immigrants to the U.S. every year is relatively consistent. Between 1 million and 1.2 million people were able to obtain lawful permanent resident status annually from 2014 to 2019, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

In 2020, that number fell to about 707,000 people, then slightly rebounded to about 740,000 people in 2021. The decline was largely the result of pandemic-related office closures, Reichlin-Melnick said.

"So, slightly less than four million people will probably get legal immigration under the Biden administration," he said. "And some of these people will have already been in the United States and will not be new arrivals."

Fact check: False claim that undocumented immigrants get Social Security numbers at the border

U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported more than 2.7 million encounters in the fiscal year 2022, up from about 1.9 million in the fiscal year 2021.

"Even if you add together all of these different sources, you are not going to get anywhere near (17 million people)," Reichlin-Melnick said.

A report by the Center for Immigration Studies, which used data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, estimated the total foreign-born population was about 48.4 million in October 2022, "by far the largest number in U.S. history."

"This means the foreign-born population has increased by 3.4 million since January 2021, the month President Biden took office," the report says.

Ellis Island wasn't only source of U.S. immigration

The post also mischaracterizes the immigration situation from the early 1900s.

Ellis Island, a small piece of land at the mouth of the Hudson River between New York and New Jersey, was one of the country's first federal immigration stations. It was, as the post says, the point of entry for more than 12 million immigrants from 1892 to 1954, according to the Statue of Liberty-Ellis Island Foundation.

Not all immigrants went through Ellis Island, though.

Annual immigration data shows a total of 24 million immigrants entered the U.S. legally between 1892 and 1954, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

Fact check: Screenshot of purported New York Post headline about immigration is satire

The social media user who shared the post could not be reached for comment.

Our fact-check sources:

• Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, March 14, Phone interview with USA TODAY

• Michelle Mittelstadt, March 9, Email exchange with USA TODAY

• Department of Homeland Security, accessed March 14, 2021 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics

• U.S. Customs and Border Protection, accessed March 14, CBP Enforcement Statistics Fiscal Year 2023

• Center for Immigration Studies, Nov. 7, 2022, New Data: Illegal Population Up Two Million Under Biden

• National Park Service, accessed March 13, Fact Sheet: Ellis Island - Statue of Liberty NM

• Statue of Liberty-Ellis Island Foundation, accessed March 13, Ellis Island

• History Channel, accessed March 13, Ellis Island

• History Channel, accessed March 13, U.S. Immigration Before 1965

Thank you for supporting our journalism. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here.

Our fact-check work is supported in part by a grant from Facebook.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fact check: False claim 17 million immigrants expected in Biden's term