Fact check: False claim that mail-in voting is connected to bad actors, fraudulent ballots
The claim: Mail-in ballots show bad actors 'how many fraudulent ballots they need to produce'
The 2020 presidential election saw more voters than ever before electing to mail in their ballots, according to FiveThirtyEight. The trend is expected to continue in the 2022 midterm elections.
An Oct. 23 Instagram post, however, claims the use of mail-in ballots is linked to election fraud. The post features a video of a woman claiming there are three things voters must do – one of which is to avoid mailing in their ballot.
"DO NOT put your ballot in the mail! It gives an opportunity for bad actors to know how may (sic) fraudulent ballots they need to produce, reads part of the post's caption, going on to mention a widely debunked documentary. "2000 mules anyone?"
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The post generated nearly 300 likes in less than a week.
But the claim is baseless.
Election security experts told USA TODAY that no one can tell from looking at a mail-in ballot who someone has voted for. There are multiple security measures in place around mail-in voting to ensure that ballots are properly delivered to election offices and that fraudulent ballots are not counted at the polls.
"The logistical issues of manufacturing that many ballots and distributing them in a way that would go unnoticed just boggles the mind," Charles Stewart III, an election security expert at Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told USA TODAY. “It’s a crazy idea that only someone with no knowledge of election administration would come up with."
USA TODAY reached out to the social media users who shared the claim for comment.
Security measures exist around mail-in voting
Election security experts told USA TODAY that mail-in voting is secure, with an array of checks and doublechecks that ensure every ballot counted is a legitimate one.
There are multiple security measures in place to ensure that no one can view that ballot or know any of the ballot counts, according to David Becker, director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research.
The Postal Service can only see the outer envelope in which a ballot is sent, Steven Bellovin, a security expert at Columbia University, told USA TODAY. Depending on the state, the envelope may or may not contain identifying information that is checked on receipt, but this information does not include who a person voted for.
Election officials also verify that everyone who has requested a ballot has filled out an application and is registered to vote in the state, according to Tammy Patrick, senior advisor to the elections program at Democracy Fund.
The mail-in ballot's inner envelope, which is sealed with the ballot inside, or the flap attached to it contain verification information such as a voter's signature, serial number or bar code, according to a 2020 article Bellovin wrote. When a mail-in ballot is received at the election office, the identity and eligibility of the voter are verified, usually by signature matching or matching the labeled identification number, before the ballot is removed from the envelope and counted, Becker said.
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The serial numbers on ballot envelopes make it "impossible for someone to simply print up a pile of blank ballots and submit them," according to the 2020 article from Bellovin. The voter’s signature is "checked against the registration database, a guard against imposters using valid ballots."
Election officials also ensure that any voter mailing in their ballots cannot then go vote in person again, another safeguard that prevents fraudulent ballots from being counted at the polls, according to Becker.
Patrick also noted the concept of manufacturing ballots is absurd because of the logistics involved. There can be hundreds of different ballot styles in one large county alone, which would make it impossible to carry out a campaign like the one claimed in the post.
Studies show mail-in voting is secure
Multiple studies show that mail-in voting is safe and secure. For example, a 2020 study found that expanding mail-in voting increases voter access and discourages adversaries from interfering with elections, Natalie Scala, an election security expert at Towson University who co-authored the study, told USA TODAY in an email.
"States and localities have had mitigations in place to catch any potential cases of fraud," Scala said. "Those mitigations have been in place for decades and they work."
A Washington Post analysis of data obtained from three vote-by-mail states conducted in collaboration with the nonprofit Electronic Registration Information Center found that there were only "372 possible cases of double voting or voting on behalf of deceased people out of about 14.6 million votes cast by mail in the 2016 and 2018 general elections."
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Likewise, a 2020 analysis conducted by the University of California, Los Angeles Voting Rights Project found that voter fraud by mail-in voting was "extremely rare."
PolitiFact also debunked the claim.
Our rating: False
Based on our research, we rate FALSE the claim that mail-in ballots show bad actors "how many fraudulent ballots they need to produce." Multiple security measures exist throughout the voting process to ensure each mail-in vote is associated with a legitimate voter. Experts say the proposed fraud scenario is preposterous on multiple levels: Mail-in voting does not give anyone the chance to see who a person voted for or know any of the ballot counts, and the variety of ballots used by different municipalities also makes such an operation impossible.
Our fact-check sources:
David Becker, Nov. 4, Email exchange with USA TODAY
Tammy Patrick, Nov. 4, Phone interview with USA TODAY
Charles Stewart, Nov. 4, Email exchange with USA TODAY
Natalie Scala, Nov. 4, Email exchange with USA TODAY
Steven Bellovin, Nov. 4, Email exchange with USA TODAY
Columbia News, Oct. 23, 2020, Mail-in Ballots Are Secure, Confidential, and Trustworthy
Wiley Online Library, Jan. 24, Evaluating mail-based security for electoral processes using attack trees
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, June 9, 2020, Universal vote-by-mail has no impact on partisan turnout or vote share
Associated Press, May 3, 2020, FACT FOCUS: Gaping holes in the claim of 2K ballot ‘mules’
Factcheck.org, June 10, Evidence Gaps in ‘2000 Mules’
FiveThirtyEight, Feb. 9, 2021, What Absentee Voting Looked Like In All 50 States
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fact check: No tie between mail-in voting and election fraud
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