Fact-checking the debaters: A look at claims ahead of 2nd Orange-Osceola state attorney debate

Orange-Osceola State Attorney Andrew Bain and Monique Worrell, his suspended predecessor and current election opponent, lobbed a lot of claims and counterclaims during their first debate last week — and will certainly do so again in a second round Friday.

But how much of what they’re saying is accurate?

Speaking before the League of Women Voters of Orange County last week, the two discussed dropping violent crime rates — and who deserves credit — along with allegations of election interference and the claims about mishandled cases that formed the basis of Worrell’s suspension.

Friday’s debate in the hotly contested race for the region’s chief prosecutor is at 11:30 a.m. at the Citrus Club in downtown Orlando.

Here’s a look at their arguments to date.

Is violent crime dropping, and who deserves credit?

Throughout the debate, Worrell said she oversaw the “lowest violent crime rate this community has experienced in more than a decade” as state attorney. Bain said his first 12 months in office since Gov. Ron DeSantis appointed him to replace her last September also saw a drop in violent crime, namely homicide.

Taking credit for the trend, Worrell said, “If they are lower now, you’re welcome.”

Bain retorted, “But you weren’t in the office to do anything to reduce crime. So how are you connecting those two?”

It’s not clear what the support is for Bain’s contention about a drop in crime on his watch: A State Attorney’s Office spokesperson said it doesn’t track local crime rates, and Bain’s campaign didn’t offer sources when contacted. While the Florida Department of Law Enforcement receives crime data from agencies across the state, only those from the Kissimmee and St. Cloud police departments have been published from this region.

That leaves an online database maintained by the Florida Department of Health, cited by Worrell’s campaign to back up her crime-rate analysis. The most recent data currently published on that site is from 2022. That means it can’t corroborate Bain’s claims, but the available data does provide some support for Worrell.

In Orange County, violent crime — such as murder, sexual battery, kidnapping, assault and robbery — has dipped nearly every year since 2007, when the rate was 404.9 incidents per 100,000 people. Violent crime hit its lowest point in 2021, Worrell’s first year in office, with 199.8 incidents per 100,000 people. The following year, however, the rate went up 3%.

Violent crime in Osceola has also dropped in the last 15 years and was at its lowest in 2022, at 145 incidents per 100,000 compared to a rate of 327.1 incidents in 2007. That rate fell below Florida’s average rate for the first time since 2003 — unlike Orange, where violent crime has remained above state average throughout that period.

Preliminary crime data published by the FBI suggests a significant reduction in violent crimes in 2023 across the U.S., but is not specific to Central Florida. A midyear report by the Council on Criminal Justice, a collective of experts in the field, suggests that may continue in 2024, as a survey of 29 American cities (none in Florida) shows a 13% drop in violent offenses so far this year.

But does that mean either local prosecutor can claim responsibility for what is clearly a national trend? Between legal policy and community engagement, prosecutors do play a key role in tackling crime, but they are only one piece of a larger puzzle.

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The criminal justice council argued as much in 2022 when it issued its “10 essential actions” to reduce violence, which was adopted this year by the U.S. Department of Justice. It cites approaches from supporting high-risk people already in the system to targeted policing to harnessing community resources, many of which are beyond the reach of a local State Attorney.

Some of its approaches, like violence interruption initiatives, are currently utilized in cities like Orlando, a partnership between city officials and organizations operating the program.

Keith Moses and other ‘mishandled’ cases

A key talking point of Bain’s campaign, which is also a critique that Worrell faced while in office, is that she bungled cases involving defendants who later went on to commit new crimes.

Bain named one explicitly at last week’s debate: Keith Moses, who’s charged with killing three people in Pine Hills last year — two years after he was arrested for possessing a stolen gun and a misdemeanor amount of marijuana.

Public records indicate reasons other than prosecutorial bungling are why Moses went free, as the amount of drugs found in that 2021 Orange County traffic stop didn’t meet state testing requirements while body-worn camera video didn’t show Moses throwing a gun out the window as deputies claimed. He also wasn’t named in affidavits as the one carrying it.

The gun wasn’t even tested for DNA until after his arrest on murder charges, with results inconclusive. And even if Worrell had convicted Moses on the weed charge, he likely would’ve been released in time to commit the killings of which he’s accused.

Still, it’s hardly the first case she’s been accused of mishandling, nor the first where support for the accusations was questionable.

Along with dropping the 2021 murder case against Kaylan Vega for lack of evidence, she was blasted by Osceola County Sheriff Marcos López for not prosecuting accused drug traffickers more aggressively. But a Sentinel investigation found deficiencies in the Osceola sheriff’s own handling of the cases hamstrung many of those prosecutions.

That’s not to say there aren’t legitimate questions on how certain cases are handled, by both Bain’s prosecutors and Worrell’s. Expect the issue to be rehashed Friday and through the rest of the campaign.

Feiter lawsuit: Can feds get involved?

A lawsuit by former Republican state attorney candidate Thomas Feiter, who’s accusing Gov. Ron DeSantis and high-level GOP officials of meddling in the primary to benefit Bain, added a twist to the tale of this race.

A core claim of the lawsuit is that Feiter’s GOP opponent, Seth Hyman, was encouraged to drop out to unite the conservative vote for Bain in exchange for political favors.

Worrell has repeatedly called for a federal investigation. Bain insists federal authorities can’t get involved.

He appears to have the better end of that argument. Michael Morley, who teaches election law at Florida State University, told the Sentinel that launching a federal investigation “would be a large stretch of federal law.”

“There are certainly types of misconduct that the federal government can investigate, but it’s really for things that prevent people from voting” or violations of federal campaign finance law, Morley said.

The FBI makes it even clearer on its website’s section on election crimes. While the agency vaguely says it can become involved when an election official “abuses his duties,” which Feiter has alleged, it says clearly when it should not take part: when the charge is “trying to convince an opponent to withdraw from a race.”