For Harris and Trump, winning a 'change' election isn’t as easy as advertised

For Kamala Harris, vice president to an unpopular president, and Donald Trump, an almost equally unpopular former president, change is in the air.

A New York Times/Sienna College poll released this week found that Harris now leads Trump on the question about which candidate “represents change” by a margin of 46% to 44%. And while that perception could ultimately help decide who wins the 2024 election in a year in which just 22% of voters say they are satisfied “with the way things are going in the United States at this time,” defining what change means has not proven so simple for either one.

Harris on her own

During an interview on Tuesday on “The View,” Harris, whose campaign slogan “We’re Not Going Back” casts her as an agent of change, was asked whether she would have done anything differently than President Biden over the past four years.

“There is not a thing that comes to mind, in terms of, and I’ve been a part of most of the decisions that have had impact,” Harris responded before adding that, unlike Biden, she would appoint a Republican to a Cabinet position if elected.

Lost in the weeds of her answer is the fact that Harris had unveiled a new policy proposal on the show to expand Medicare benefits to cover home health care costs for America’s rapidly aging population.

All vice presidents hoping to become president must grapple with the question of how to differentiate themselves from their former running mates, especially those who run for a concurrent term with the administration in which they’ve just served. Harris has steered clear of criticizing Biden, which leaves her open to criticism from voters who want to turn the page. Of course, if she does win in November, Harris would immediately distinguish herself as the first woman president in U.S. history. Her relative youth — she is also 22 years younger than Biden and 19 years younger than Trump — would also be an apparent contrast with the last two White House occupants.

There’s little argument that when she replaced Biden as the Democratic nominee, Harris energized her party and dramatically altered the trajectory of the race. But an ABC/Ipsos poll released Friday found that by a margin of 74%-22% of voters of both parties said they would like to see Harris “go in a new direction as president rather than continue the policies of the Biden administration.” The same poll found that 65% of voters believe that Harris will continue Biden’s policies, while 33% said she would embark on a different path.

Trump, take 2

For Trump, portraying himself as the candidate of change is equally tricky. On Monday, Trump was interviewed by Fox News host Laura Ingraham, who asked him how he would restore faith in the U.S. justice system given criticism that he is planning to use it to exact revenge on his political opponents.

“Well, a lot of people say that’s what should happen, if you want to know the truth,” Trump said, eliciting supportive cheers from his audience.

Ingraham prodded him again, saying, “You know, punitively using government institutions is what got us in this mess in the first place,” before quoting Trump as saying, “My revenge is going to be my success.”

“Yeah, well I do believe that,” Trump responded.

In many ways, Trump, whose unchanged “Make America Great Again” slogan harkens back to an unspecified period in U.S. history, is running again to double down on what the country experienced during his first term.

He has promised bigger tariffs, bigger tax cuts, even greater resistance to NATO and the largest deportation program in U.S. history.

In the wake of Trump’s speech at the Republican National Convention in July, Kevin Roberts, the president of the Heritage Foundation and one of the lead authors of Project 2025, a blueprint for the next Republican administration, told the Wall Street Journal that Trump had “learned a lot.”

“I think this is going to be an administration that is very efficient,” he added.

Like Harris, Trump is underwater in the ABC News/Ipsos poll when it comes to those who want him to change how he governs if elected to a second term (53%) versus those who think he would (33%). In other words, while voters may yearn for change, they are also somewhat dubious about it happening with these candidates.