It’s the State of the Union. Joe Biden Should Consider a Reset.
This is Totally Normal Quote of the Day, a feature highlighting a statement from the news that exemplifies just how extremely normal everything has become.
“President Joe Biden’s team is increasingly taking extraordinary steps to minimize disruptions from pro-Palestinian protests at his events by making them smaller, withholding their precise locations from the media and the public until he arrives, avoiding college campuses and, in at least one instance, considering hiring a private company to vet attendees.” —An NBC News report describing the nature of one of Biden’s recent campaign pivots.
President Joe Biden is about to give his third State of the Union address, and he doesn’t seem too concerned about the prospect that it could be his last.* Just look to the crazy-making calm of his inner circle, which seems content to dismiss current polling and bet that the electorate will “choose normal” at the ballot box this fall. (Remind me how 2016 turned out, again?)
Everyone else who cares about the state of our union, however, has been especially alarmed as of late.
Biden is still tied with or trailing Donald Trump in the polls, and his overall approval rating remains troublingly low. A recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that a “majority” of Biden’s 2020 coalition now perceives him as “too old to lead the country effectively.” The electorate at large remains largely unaware of the genuinely historic accomplishments Biden has achieved on popular issues like economic recovery, infrastructure protection, climate change, and gun control. Super Tuesday saw more important states for Biden—North Carolina and Minnesota—rack up impressive voting margins for “uncommitted” in the Democratic primary, adding tangible numbers to the national disaffection over Biden’s stance on the Israel-Hamas war (something that was already expressed quite clearly by a significant share of Michiganders in last week’s primary). Israel’s indiscriminate bombing of the Gaza Strip has now killed more than 30,000 Palestinian Arabs, the majority of them “women and children,” as even Biden’s administration officials have admitted—a fact that’s inflaming important swaths of the Democratic voting base.
And all the while, the Supreme Court is slowing the momentum of Trump’s federal trials and allowing him to seriously argue that he could be immune from his many alleged crimes, simply because he was the president while he was doing them. So the current president is losing any advantages there.
Biden clearly needs to make some big changes and repair his broken relationship with much-needed voters. His vice president—who called for an immediate cease-fire in Gaza—says so. His congressional allies—from progressives like Ro Khanna to pro-Israel moderates like Haley Stevens—say so. The majority of all voters—Jewish or Muslim, left-wing or centrist—say so. So, is Biden actually shifting his tack to win voters back?
Depends on how you classify the act of hiding from the very constituencies he needs to court!
According to an NBC News report published last week, Biden and his campaign team have been so rattled by the ubiquitous presence of pro-Palestine supporters at their rallies that they’re all but running for cover. Biden’s reelection effort has “postponed” plans to hit more college campuses, and is instead keeping rally locations secretive, increasing the prices of fundraising dinners, and “discussing whether to hire a private company to vet attendees,” per the network. (Surely a great use of funds as small-dollar donations remain low.)
To take it from NBC’s sources, Biden’s new protester-avoiding accommodations “have resulted in zero disruptions” over the past few weeks. However, this has also “meant that Biden is appearing in front of fewer voters and not personally engaging with some of the key constituencies whose support he is struggling to gain, such as young voters.” Look, Jack: I’ve never managed a campaign but … that seems bad!
It’s not just Biden who’s facing down Israel protests; even Gaza-sympathetic Dems like Raphael Warnock, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Maxwell Frost have tangled with morally outraged constituencies this year. But here’s the thing: It’s Biden who, more than anyone else, needs to assure the American people that he’s 1) physically up to snuff and 2) willing to engage with the critical voters he’s been losing. And it has to go beyond mere words: A senior adviser to Biden (anonymously) told NBC News’ Mike Memoli last week that “President Biden shares the goal of many of the folks who voted ‘uncommitted,’ which is an end to the violence and a just and lasting peace. … They want a President who listens and delivers. That’s Joe Biden.”
Is it, though? Because it sure as heck sounds like he’s not doing much listening on this issue, much less delivering.
Some pundits or Biden aides will point out the fact that older voters turn out more in presidential contests anyway, which is true, and that younger voters are generally a low-turnout bloc, which is also true. But young voters have consistently been an important part of the Democratic coalition over the past few years. As the Democratic polling firm Catalist has measured, Biden’s ability to beat Trump where Hillary Clinton couldn’t depended a lot on improved youth numbers, with those voters making for 31 percent of the 2020 voting electorate, versus 23 percent in 2016. Biden simply can’t afford to cast aside the people who have supported him and are now begging him to take action. So if, per a “Biden ally” quoted by NBC News, “the point is to reach as many voters as you can, and those small events don’t,” then what in the Sam Hill are we doing here?
The State of the Union offers Biden some ways to turn things around. The already media-shy president needs to take the moment to speak to those voters who, he well knows, are upset with him and pleading for something better. He should harness his famed empathy to show he understands why they are upset, instead of just throwing out stock lines. Biden’s reported plan to list out wonky bits of his legislative agenda won’t cut it—that’s not what the voters are looking for right now. The president can demonstrate, in a substantive way, that he gets it. Or he can continue to duck things and see how that works out for the country.