Gilbert: Marquette's poll reveals changes that may help Kamala Harris in Wisconsin

Kamala Harris’ 4-point edge over Donald Trump is the biggest lead Democrats have enjoyed for president in the five Wisconsin polls conducted by the Marquette Law School this year.

The new Wisconsin survey, taken Aug. 28 to Sept. 5 and completed before Tuesday’s debate, also shows some underlying changes in public opinion that may be contributing to the small edge Harris has carved out.

Democratic voters have overtaken Republican voters in enthusiasm after lagging far behind for most of this election cycle.

Vice President Harris is more personally popular now than President Joe Biden was when he was the presumptive nominee.

She scores better than Biden on several issues and personal qualities.

And her choice for running mate is more popular than Trump’s choice.

But with all that said, the 4-point Harris lead — 52% to 48% among likely voters — comes with caveats.

It follows an extended run of positive media coverage for Harris, including from the four-day Democratic National Convention.  It represents a pretty small change from previous Marquette surveys showing the race essentially tied.

And, of course, it doesn’t tell us who is going to carry Wisconsin in November.  No survey can do that in such a close state. The most concrete guide to where Wisconsin is going to end up is the state’s last two presidential contests, with Trump on the ballot in both.  Wisconsin was decided by less than a percentage point each time.

Moving past the “horse race” numbers in the poll, it’s worth looking at some of the other findings that suggest the dynamics of this race in Wisconsin have improved for Democrats.

Here is how some of the results in the new poll compare to Marquette’s June poll, which was the last one conducted before Biden withdrew from the race after a disastrous debate performance amplified widespread concerns about his age:

Democrats have flipped the switch on voter enthusiasm

Democrats have gone from being the least enthusiastic of the two parties to the most enthusiastic. In polling from last fall to early this summer, Democrats faced a double-digit enthusiasm deficit unprecedented in Marquette’s polling.  In the June poll, only 40% of Democratic voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting for president in November, compared to 57% of Republicans.

That gap narrowed in Marquette’s late July poll, after Harris effectively replaced Biden as the Democratic candidate. And in the new poll, Democrats are now the ones with the enthusiasm edge: 72% of Democratic voters are very enthusiastic, compared to 63% of Republicans.

That is a stunning shift in 2 1/2 months, from a 17-point GOP advantage to a 9-point Democratic one.  An edge in enthusiasm doesn’t guarantee an edge in turnout, but it is a positive sign for Harris and her party.

Kamala Harris is more popular than Joe Biden in Wisconsin

Harris now is a more popular figure than Biden.  In June, Biden was viewed favorably by 40% of voters and unfavorably by 57%. In the new poll, Harris is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 51%.

While her overall rating is negative, it is a lot less negative than Biden’s. It is also less negative than that of Trump, who is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 56% in the new poll.

An edge in popularity doesn’t necessarily translate into a voting edge, but when Biden beat Trump in 2020, he was the more personally popular of the two. That Biden advantage disappeared in this election cycle, not because Trump had gained in popularity but because Biden had declined. This dynamic has now shifted again, with Harris enjoying a better favorability rating than Trump.

Tim Walz is polling more popular than JD Vance

The Democratic vice-presidential candidate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is more popular now in Wisconsin than the Republican one, Ohio Sen. JD Vance.  Walz is viewed favorably by 43% of registered voters in Wisconsin and unfavorably by 37%. Vance is viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 47%. Running mates don’t drive presidential elections. But again, if there is an advantage here, it appears to belong to Democrats right now.

Harris has narrowed Trump's edge on the economy, immigration and Gaza

Trump enjoys an edge over Harris on what is easily the No. 1 issue, the economy, and that remains an important indicator. But it is a smaller edge than Trump enjoyed over Biden. In June, 52% of registered voters in Wisconsin said Trump would do a better job on the economy than Biden and 34% said Biden would do a better job. I

n the new poll, 50% said Trump and 42% said Harris. Trump’s edge on immigration and on the war in Gaza is also smaller against Harris than it was against Biden. Similarly, Harris enjoys a somewhat bigger edge over Trump on health care, Social Security and abortion than Biden enjoyed.

Kamala Harris has shifted the age issue to a GOP liability

By far the biggest change in the race with respect to the personal qualities of the candidates involves age, the issue that so plagued Biden. In June, 76% of voters thought Biden was too old and 53% thought Trump was too old. In the new poll the share of voters who think Trump is too old has risen to 59%, while only 15% think Harris is too old.

Age has gone from being a liability for Democrats to being a liability for Republicans.

In many respects, perceptions of Trump haven’t really changed very much in the last three months, but perceptions of Harris are more positive than they were of Biden.

That doesn’t mean she will win Wisconsin, but it certainly suggests that she went into Tuesday’s debate in a stronger position in Wisconsin than Biden was in, and quite possibly a slightly stronger position than Trump.

Craig Gilbert provides Wisconsin political analysis as a fellow with Marquette University Law School's Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education. Prior to the fellowship, Gilbert reported on politics for 35 years at the Journal Sentinel, the last 25 in its Washington Bureau. His column continues that independent reporting tradition and goes through the established Journal Sentinel editing process.

Follow him on Twitter: @Wisvoter.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Marquette's poll reveals factors lifting Kamala Harris in Wisconsin