'So goes Pennsylvania': Inside the Harris-Trump fight for top 2024 battleground

ALLENTOWN, Pa. — The loud beats of reggaetón on downtown Hamilton Street, smells of tacos from La cocina del Abuelo and vibrant murals along alleyways are reminders this isn't the Allentown that inspired Billy Joel in 1982 to famously sing "they're closing all the factories down."

In the middle of the main drag of this old manufacturing city in eastern Pennsylvania – reborn with a booming, now-majority Latino population – is one of 50 campaign field offices Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has set up across Pennsylvania.

The storefront of a converted health clinic is plastered with signs that read "Latinos con Harris." Volunteers gather there for phone-banking and door-canvassing. But as 36-year-old Adrian Modesto got his long dark hair trimmed last week at Anderson Barbershop three blocks away, he said he wasn't sure whether he will vote in November.

"If I were to vote, it would probably be Kamala," said Modesto, a Walmart distribution manager who previously backed independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. before he dropped out. He applauded Harris' proposals to boost housing and her middle-class-focused tax policies but said he just doesn't know enough about the vice president to commit.

"She hasn't done a lot of interviews," said Modesto, who moved to the area from New York and whose parents are from Mexico. If he does vote for Harris, he said, "It would be more so just not voting for Trump."

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Pennsylvania is widely considered the most important battleground of the 2024 election between Harris and former President Donald Trump, with their respective paths to 270 electoral votes severely limited if they don't carry its 19 electoral votes – the most of any of the top seven battleground states.

To duplicate President Joe Biden's narrow 2020 victory in Pennsylvania, Harris needs to rack up big numbers in the commonwealth's urban centers of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Harrisburg, and build on Democrats' recent success in surrounding suburban counties.

To flip it back in the Republican column, Trump is looking to further expand his massive margins in Pennsylvania's rural counties that he carried with more than 70% in 2020, while chipping away at Harris' strength in cities and suburbs.

Yet the state could come down to undecided voters in Northeast Pennsylvania and its emerging "Latino Belt." That includes Lehigh Valley, home of Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton and several smaller townships, along with blue-collar Scranton and Wilkes-Barre further north.

Biden carried the valley's Lehigh County, where Allentown is the county seat, 53%-47% in the 2020 election. A tighter bellwether – often predictive of who will win Pennsylvania – is neighboring Northampton County, which Biden won by less than 1 percentage point in 2020 after Trump carried it by 4 percentage points against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

"The Lehigh Valley is the swing region of a swing state. Northampton is a bellwether county. We know it flipped to Donald Trump in 2016, Joe Biden flipped it back," said Democratic Pennsylvania state Rep. Josh Siegel, a Harris supporter whose district includes Allentown. "So goes the Lehigh Valley, so goes Pennsylvania."

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Harris campaign seeks to turn out Pennsylvania's Latino belt

Allentown is the valley's Democratic stronghold, with a mix of Latinos, particularly from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, working-class and college-educated voters, and New York and Philadelphia transplants. Although Allentown's steel industry has collapsed from its peak in the mid-20th century, manufacturing still makes up about 16% of the Lehigh Valley's economy, with health care and retail other top sectors.

The Harris campaign has deployed a Latino outreach effort aimed at Pennsylvania's more than 1 million Hispanic voters – 615,000 who are expected to vote in November – that includes paid media blitzes in Spanish and a WhatsApp channel for Latinos.

Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania 49%-46%, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll taken after last week's debate found. And she is up 50%-45% in Northampton County, a more isolated USA TODAY/Suffolk poll found. But the results are within the margin of error, and 5% of voters statewide are still undecided.

In Northampton, which is 13% Latino, Harris leads Trump among Latino voters 60%-25%, the poll revealed.

More: Harris leads Trump in Pennsylvania — and two bellwether PA counties — exclusive poll finds

Yet the Harris campaign must turn them out to vote. And after securing the Democratic nomination in rapid fashion without a traditional primary, Harris still has work to convince undecided voters leaning her way but not yet committed. Eight percent of Latino voters in Northampton County said they are undecided.

"I don't like the person Trump is," said Chris Rodriguez, a 31-year-old barber at G&A Barbershop in Allentown, but added that he doesn't know much about Harris other than that she's a former prosecutor. "That's it. Other than that, I don't know what they bring to the table."

More: Kamala Harris needs Latinos to win these swing states. They say she has more to do

Most undecided Lehigh County voters point to the economy and inflation as top issues, while others cite access to abortion.

"I'm still not quite decided but I'm leaning more toward Harris," said Jessica Leibenguth, 47, as she took a break from her insurance sales job to read a book on a public bench in downtown Allentown. "I'm not a huge fan of her," she said of Harris, "but I like how she is for women's reproductive rights. She is more caring, nurturing ‐ not 'screw everybody.' More for the people."

Leibenguth planned to watch last week's first presidential debate between Harris and Trump to help form her decision. The Harris campaign has sought to capitalize on the vice president's strong performance – in which she baited Trump throughout and put him on defense – to bring more uncommitted voters her way.

More: Who won the debate? Harris' forceful performance rattles a defensive Trump.

A split county

Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 over Trump by 1.2 percentage points, while Trump carried the commonwealth by less than 1 percentage point over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Among the three so-called "blue wall" Rust Belt states this year, polling throughout the 2024 campaign has shown Pennsylvania to be the tightest, with Harris holding razor-close leads in most polls over Trump in the other two – Wisconsin and Michigan.

The presidential candidate who carried Pennsylvania has also won Michigan and Wisconsin in every election since 1988.

The partisan split of Lehigh County, which leans more conservative outside of Democratic-heavy Allentown, isn't hard to find.

"No way in hell I'm voting for someone with 34 convictions," Tom Watson, a 62-year-old forklift operator, said as he finished his haircut at G&A Christian Barbershop, making clear he will vote for Harris over Trump. "I like everything about her. She's more honest than he is. I just hope we pull it off."

Serving slices of pizza next door at Delicioso Pizza & Subs on Allentown Hamilton's Street, 47-year-old Vivian Nunez said she's a "Trump supporter 100%."

"I feel like it was safer when he was president. I felt that the economy was better. I had more money in my pocket," said Nunez, who will be making her third vote for Trump after doing so in 2016 and 2020.

As part of its path to win Pennsylvania, the Trump campaign believes it can peel away some Black and Latino voters from Harris by appealing to minority voters who are socially conservative and worry about the state of the economy.

Jorge Camacho, a 60-year-old Puerto Rican who moved to Allentown from New York nearly five years ago, said he is "not the greatest fan of Donald Trump personally" but plans to vote for him anyway. Camacho said his "personal values" as a Christian are reflected by the Republican Party and said he was "doing a lot better" financially during Trump's presidency.

But at a different table at La Vida Cafe, where Camacho was enjoying a coffee, Andrene Brown-Nowell applauded Harris' new proposals to aid small businesses owners with incentives and boost affordable housing. "She's very clear on what she's going to do," said Brown-Nowell, who chairs the Allentown School District's board of directors.

Brown-Nowell said the Harris campaign has activated on the grassroots level to turn out Lehigh County voters in a way that reminds her of Barack Obama in 2008. "It's refreshing right now," she said. "Young people are more interested because she's got them engaged, where Biden kind of lost that a little bit. The reconnection is happening."

'It's going to be incredibly close'

Pennsylvania's crucial status is reflected in both nominee's repeated visits. Harris prepared in Pittsburgh for her debate with Trump. Second gentleman Doug Emhoff visited Allentown on a recent weekend for a "Latinos con Harris" event. Harris campaigned in Johnstown and Wilkes Barre, Pa. on Friday. Her trip to Johnstown came after Trump held a campaign rally there last month.

During last week's debate, held in Philadelphia, Harris made an appeal to the 800,000 Polish-Americans who reside in Pennsylvania as she criticized Trump's dealings with Russian President Vladimir Putin. She also reiterated her opposition to a ban on fracking for natural gas – a major issue in parts of the commonwealth.

In Allentown, Harris has a strong ally in Mayor Matthew Tuerk, an energetic 49-year-old Cuban-American who rides his bike to and from work and is stopped by almost everyone he passes along the way.

"It's changed a lot, and I think I'm part of the story of that change," said Tuerk, who grew up in Eastern Pennsylvania, moved away as a child and returned 20 years ago not thinking he would stay.

Tuerk is optimistic about Harris' chances in Pennsylvania. "We know it's tight. It's going to be incredibly close," he said.

Former Democratic Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell predicted Harris will carry Pennsylvania following a strong debate performance and said Trump doesn't have much room to expand his voting base in the mostly white rural parts of the state. Conversely, he believes Harris will win big among independent women in the seven counties within the Philadelphia media market including Lehigh County.

The USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll found a stark gender gap in Pennsylvania, with Harris leading women voters 56%-39% and Trump ahead of male voters by a slimmer 53%-41%.

"There's very little room for Trump to grow," Rendell said. "When it was Biden versus Trump, enthusiasm was on Trump's side. But now enthusiasm seems to be greater on Harris' side than Trump's side."

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But David Urban, a former Trump senior adviser who helped lead Trump's efforts in Pennsylvania in 2016 and 2020, said he doesn't believe Harris will match Biden's performances in the president's hometown of Scranton or nearby Luzerne County.

He said Trump can also "run up the score" even more in the state's dozens of small rural counties to match the margins Trump had against Clinton in 2016 – producing a net-gain of "500 votes here" and another "1,000 there," Urban said.

"To paraphrase Al Pacino in 'Any Given Sunday,' this is a game of inches," Urban said, adding that he believes the 2024 race in Pennsylvania is "more like '16 than '20."

More: Starting with a handshake, ending with gloves off: 7 takeaways from Harris-Trump debate

As Harris and Trump debated last week, downtown Hamilton Street in Allentown was the site of three separate Democratic debate watch parties including one on the second floor of Brü Daddy's, where more than 50 supporters cheered on Harris.

Several Harris fans yelled, "Liar!" when Trump claimed he had nothing to do with Project 2025. They roared in laughter when Harris baited Trump to defend the crowd sizes of his campaign rallies. And they gave their biggest round of applause when the vice president slammed Trump's role in overturning Roe v. Wade with his appointments of three Supreme Court justices.

Much like most reviews across the nation, the room was convinced Harris won the debate.

Tuerk, the Allentown mayor, turned down the volume of the television and addressed the crowd during the final intermission before the candidates' closing remarks. He made an appeal for everyone "not to leave without a plan" to both vote and volunteer.

"No matter how much we all like this," Tuerk said, gesturing toward the television, "we still have a shi---d of work here in Allentown to make sure we elect Kamala Harris."

But earlier that afternoon, Mario Peralta, one of the artists who has painted some of the new murals in downtown Allentown, said he will vote for Trump.

“I see the problems that we've been facing right now with the economy and everything, and I think he might do better work,” Peralta said as he watched fellow muralist Hector Castro fill in spots of an unfinished mural.

Peralta, a 54-year-old Dominican immigrant who has lived in Allentown for 20 years, added: "The most important issue for me is the cost of life.”

Peralta and others – like the people immortalized in Joel's song – are still waiting here in Allentown, for the Pennsylvania they never found.

Reach Joey Garrison on X, formerly Twitter, @joeygarrison.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Harris, Trump and the fight for the top battleground: Pennsylvania