Gulf tropical disturbance could become first named storm of 2024 hurricane season
The National Hurricane Center is tracking a tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that is “likely” to develop this week, becoming the first named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Using satellite imagery and surface observations, NHC forecasters discovered a broad area of low pressure forming over the Bay of Campeche in Mexico.
According to the NHC’s latest tropical weather outlook, a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to develop by midweek due to conducive area conditions.
Right now, the disturbance is moving slowly westward or west-northwestward toward the western Gulf coast, but Pensacola residents shouldn’t have any cause for concern yet.
Will Gulf tropical disturbance impact Florida?
The Gulf tropical disturbance, which would be named Alberto if it becomes a named storm, isn’t expected to impact Florida residents.
As the storm moves northwest, portions of southern Mexico and Central America will see heavy rainfall that could cause life-threatening flooding and flash flooding.
The NHC says that rainfall will be spread across portions of the northwestern coast of the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week, and urges residents living along the western and northwestern Gulf coasts to monitor the system’s progress.
The system has a 70% chance to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next 48 hours and a 70% chance to develop through seven days.
Rare June tropical disturbance in southwest Atlantic could develop
Most tropical disturbances in June tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico. Only in rare exceptions do forecasters spot them in the Atlantic this early in the season, but one such disturbance is beginning to rear its head in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Forecasters are monitoring an area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough and upper-level area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas.
Area conditions could allow the disturbance to continue developing as it, too, moves west and west-northwest. It’s expected to near the coast of the southeast United States on Thursday or Friday.
Right now the tropical disturbance has a 10% formation chance through 48 hours and a 30% chance through the next seven days.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: Will Gulf tropical disturbance impact Florida? What we know
