New Hampshire primary fight has Biden Democrats plotting write-in campaign to keep him from losing

WASHINGTON — With the filing deadline in New Hampshire fast-approaching and national Democrats weighing penalties that would effectively keep President Joe Biden off the state's primary ballot, an ad hoc group of his backers are rallying support for a write-in effort to prevent him from losing the contest.

The loosely organized group includes respected former party officials who are preparing to step in with the Democratic National Committee declining, so far, to back down from a pledge to punish presidential candidates who campaign in states that buck the party's primary order.

Campaigning is defined, in the Biden-backed rules that were formally adopted by the DNC earlier this year, as appearing on the ballot in states that jump the line. New Hampshire has traditionally had the first presidential primary, and in keeping with state law, it is expected break the Democratic Party's rules and do so again.

With the prospect of a fringe candidate such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., winning New Hampshire, Democrats in the state have begun plotting an independent effort to support Biden.

At a meeting of Manchester Democrats last weekend, former New Hampshire party chair Kathy Sullivan said she told attendees, "It's important that we all show up and write in Joe Biden's name if his name is not on the ballot."

All but one of the attendees, who was upset that Biden demoted New Hampshire, agreed with her, Sullivan said.

The loose effort has the support of Colin Van Ostern, a former member of the New Hampshire Executive Council, and Jim Demers, who co-chaired former President Barack Obama's campaigns in New Hampshire.

Demers said that it has not reached the point of an official effort, and Democrats who are involved in the conversations are waiting for the filing deadline to pass to begin organizing in earnest.

"But there are a lot of us who strongly support President Biden, we support his agenda, and we want to make sure that he gets reelected, so we don't plan to vote for anybody in our primary except for him," Demers said.

New Hampshire expected to go first

State law requires New Hampshire to hold the first presidential primary. Its GOP-run legislature would not change the statute to accommodate Biden's effort to elevate states with more diverse electorates.

New Hampshire Democrats could lose many of their delegates to the 2024 national convention if the state holds its contest ahead of Biden's hand-picked primary calendar. DNC rules also prevent candidates who participate in rouge contests from winning of any of the state's delegates, which would be consequential if Biden faced stiff competition for the nomination and needed the state's support.

Although the state has not announced the date of its primary yet, its secretary of state has indicated the election will likely take place on Jan. 23. That would put the contest in front of South Carolina, which Biden picked to go first, and almost two weeks earlier than the date that national Democrats decided on.

The DNC directed South Carolina to have its primary on Feb. 3 and New Hampshire and Nevada to hold their contests on Feb. 6.

Biden has adamantly supported the calendar, which New Hampshire Democrats fought hard to repeal. But neither the president nor his campaign have said whether he will break the party's rules as they are written to appear on New Hampshire's ballot.

Rules and Bylaws Committee members of the DNC recommitted to the calendar at a meeting in Washington, D.C. on Thursday and gave New Hampshire until Oct. 14 to come into compliance. The committee has avoided saying whether it will enforce the penalties against New Hampshire by giving the state repeated waivers, and did so again at the September gathering.

James Roosevelt Jr., who co-chairs the committee, told USA TODAY after the meeting that the panel hopes to "find a resolution" by the time the full DNC meets in St. Louis in early October.

The party is running out of time to make a decision. New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan on Wednesday announced a window of Oct. 11-27 for candidates in both major political parties' primaries to file their paperwork to appear on the ballot.

Democrats in the state say they are moving on, regardless of what the DNC winds up deciding.

"There's going to be a drop dead date," Sullivan said. "If they kick the can down the road... too far, it will be a done deal. Biden won't be on the ballot."

Democrats shift their strategy

New Hampshire Democratic Party Chair Ray Buckley said he's putting his focus in 2024 on winning the governor's race, with longtime GOP. Gov. Chris Sununu not running for reelection; winning the majority in the state legislature; holding on to the state's contested congressional seats; and getting Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris reelected.

The state party will not be involved in a write-in effort, he said. "But there's no reason to doubt that the president's not going to do very well."

"People are just going to organize their neighborhoods. It is not going to be you know, some multi-million dollar effort, it's going to be a real grassroots New Hampshire style operation," he said. "We have a very robust grassroots in New Hampshire. And they seem to be organizing themselves individually, and perhaps at some point, collectively."

Biden won New Hampshire in the 2020 general election, and he is up 53 points in his party's 2024 primary. He had 65% support of Democrats' support in New Hampshire in an August poll conducted by Emerson College to Kennedy's 12% and Marianne Williamson's 4%.

DNC Rules and Bylaws panel member Joanne Dowdell, who has been pressing New Hampshire's case before the committee, cautioned Democrats exploring a write-in campaign to consider a scenario in which Biden still loses the state's primary.

"The concern I have is if that effort is unsuccessful," she said. "How would the campaign respond if it was not a favorable result?"

A write-in campaign would not be easy. But veteran Democratic activists in New Hampshire say its possible.

"It would be certainly historic for a presidential candidate to win a write-in effort. But I do believe that there's enough support in New Hampshire for President Biden and that if there were that effort, I think he could win it," Demers said. "I don't think I would be involved in an organized effort if I felt that it was something that wasn't doable."

Sullivan said New Hampshire Democrats will vote anyway, and with no other acceptable candidates on the ballot, they will hopefully write in Biden's name.

"It's a heavy lift, with...little if any resources to get out and talk to people about this, to educate people so that they know that when they go to vote for Joe Biden they have to write his name in," she said. "So it's a lift," Sullivan acknowledged. "But I think it can be done."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: N.H. primary calendar fight pushes Biden supporters to write-in effort