Harris leads in Minnesota polling; Trump loses grasp on flipping state red
MINNEAPOLIS — The clock is ticking with less than 100 days until the election, and former President Donald Trump still has his sights set on flipping Minnesota, but Democrats aren't losing sleep over this dream.
The 78-year-old has to overcome a losing streak and over 50 years of Democratic presidential wins in the state.
Before President Joe Biden ended his bid for reelection last week, the race between the two was tight. Now that Vice President Kamala Harris has taken charge of the ticket, Trump's hopes of giving Democrats a run for their money in the North Star State might just be out of grasp.
More: Harris' VP options: From Josh Shapiro to Mark Kelly, sizing up the slate's pros and cons
But Minnesota is a state of close calls, so despite an impressive loss streak from Republican presidential candidates, and a chaotic election cycle enduring political violence and extreme polarization, it could still mean a close race in November.
A 'nail-biter' election
Minnesota Democrats have the fourth-largest winning streak in the nation winning 26 consecutive statewide elections,
But, Smart Politics, a political analysis site, founder and Minnesota elections expert Eric Ostermeier said that doesn't mean Harris has this election in the bag.
More: A look at the closest Minnesota presidential election races in the last 50 years
"Despite Democratic success," he said, Minnesota is "not a deep blue state" like California and New York.
A quarter of those most recent statewide elections won were "nail-biters," Ostermeier said, most of them being off-year midterms. The state's average margin of victory has slimmed to 5.4% since 2000.
In 2016, Trump lost the state by less than 2%. In 2020, his loss margin tripled to more than seven.
"Minnesota, I believe, has the electoral pedigree in presidential elections over the last quarter century to have earned the right to be called one of the top seven or eight most competitive states," he said.
Minnesota is consistently one of the top states for voter turnout in both general and midterm elections, which typically benefits Democrats.
It is highly unlikely Minnesota would be a tipping point state, Ostermeier said, but if Harris loses it, other less securely Democratic states are also likely to go to Trump.
"If Harris runs a good national campaign," he said, "I would be surprised if she lost the state."
And the polls are saying she's winning Minnesota, at least for now.
Before dropping out, Biden was holding on, just barely, in local polling. But now he has stepped aside for his second-in-command, Her reception from Minnesotans has been positive.
A Fox News poll conducted after the assassination attempt on Trump and Biden stepping off the ticket shows the Democrat ticket and Harris' win over Trump widening to six points. Another poll, conducted by KSTP/SurveyUSA expresses even more Minnesota support for Harris, giving her a 10-point lead.
Minnesota DFL Party Chairman Ken Martin said Harris' skyrocketing popularity is "nothing short of miraculous," citing her record-breaking fundraising and viral support from Gen Z.
Martin said he is confident her identity as a Black woman and of South Asian descent combined with her age, significantly younger than both Biden and Trump, will energize the youth vote and minority blocks to turn out for her in November.
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Minnesota GOP Party Chairman David Hanh said this bump in polling is expected, and he's not worried.
"Now that you've got a new candidate, that's the new shiny object," he said. "Of course, people are going to be more satisfied with that, at least initially."
Battling it out
Less than two weeks after the Republican National Convention where he named his running mate, Trump and vice presidential running mate, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, campaigned in St. Cloud for a joint rally that attracted more than 8,000 attendees.
Hahn said the Minnesota GOP's biggest obstacle for breaking the Democrat's winning streak is turning out their voters, a problem Democrats in the state don't typically have. He said the light being shed on Harris' left-wing record in the Senate could mean she loses support from more moderate voters.
In addition to Harris' own political history, she'll also have to answer for Biden's.
"The election has always been a referendum," Hahn said. "She is ultimately connected to the Biden administration and is in the same position of having to defend the terrible policies."
In June, the Trump campaign announced their intention to open up a number of offices and expand their operations in the state to turn out support to the polls. The St. Cloud Times, a USA TODAY Network partner, was not able to verify whether these leases have been obtained. The Trump-Vance campaign did not respond for comment.
Martin said that this November is about "moving forward versus moving backwards," and despite knowing the election will be close, Trump's talks of winning the state are a head fake.
"[Trump is] a trophy collector," Martin said. "He collects trophy wives, he collects trophy properties, there's no bigger trophy for a Republican running for president than flipping Minnesota."
Harris' most recent visit to Minnesota was in March to St. Paul when she made history as the first vice president to visit an abortion clinic. She is expected to make her pick within the next week and will embark on a multi-battleground state blitz with her new running mate, starting on Tuesday in Philadelphia.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz's standing in the unofficial race for vice president has soared to one of the top remaining names on the list in recent days. USA TODAY previously reported when asked on CNN if he was being vetted for the spot, Walz sidestepped the question and said just "being mentioned is an honor."
— Sam Woodward is the Minnesota elections reporting fellow for USA Today. You can reach her at [email protected], on X @woodyreports, or on Threads @samjowoody
This article originally appeared on St. Cloud Times: Harris makes big gains against Trump in Minnesota polling
