Harris may have big early voting lead despite Trump’s claims GOP is winning, polling suggests
Despite Donald Trump’s boasts of an “unprecedented” lead in early voting, polling suggests that Kamala Harris is actually significantly ahead among those who have already voted either through absentee, mail-in or in-person ballots.
Recent national polling from ABC News/Ipsos, The News York Times/Sienna College and CNN show that Harris leads Trump 62 percent to 33 percent; 59 percent to 40 percent; and 61 percent to 36 percent respectively, according to an analysis by the Washington Post.
The same trend is also true across almost all of the swing states, according to surveys from CNN, Fox News, Marist Poll and US Today/Suffolk University.
The polls find that Harris is leading in early voting across Arizona (between nine and 12 percent), Georgia (between seven and 10 percent), Michigan (between 26 and 39 percent), North Carolina (between two and six percent), Pennsylvania (between 17 and 35 percent) and Wisconsin (between 22 and 60 percent).
CNN’s polling of those who said they’ve already voted finds that Trump leads Harris in Nevada by six points.
Early voting records have been smashed already this election cycle with 65 million estimated to have cast their ballots, according to the University of Florida.
An estimated 65 percent of likely voters either have or intend to cast their ballot before Election Day on Tuesday, according to Marist Poll.
Excitement in the GOP camp is mounting as polls show Republicans have embraced early voting much more than in 2020 – when Trump dissuaded the use of mail-in ballots, despite the US being in the depths of the Covid pandemic.
In Pennsylvania, for example, registered Republicans make up about 32 percent of the early vote this year – a significant increase from 21 percent in 2020, according to CNN.
Trump has claimed that his party is in fact storming ahead in the polls among early voters.
“We’re leading in early voting for the first time ever. As you know, Democrats always lead in the early part and Republicans like to go there on,” the former president said at a Henderson, Nevada, campaign stop on Thursday.
“But we’re doing really well. And to be leading in early voting is unprecedented.”
Despite enhanced GOP voter turnout, Harris is expected to go into Election Day with a substantial lead, the polls show.
The same was, however, true of 2016 Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. Polls from ABC News/Washington Post and McClatchy/Marist College suggested the former New York senator had between an eight and 16-point lead among early voters.
Some strategists warn that the early voting picture isn’t an accurate representation of total votes for the presidential rivals.
“Early voting totals don’t tell us anything about who’s winning, and people should be extremely wary of claims that one side, or the other, is pulling away with this race,” David Becker, who runs the Center for Election Innovation and Research, told CNN.
National polls of all likely voters – including those who say they have not yet voted – put the presidential candidates on a much more even footing.
The Independent’s national polls tracker, which uses data from FiveThirtyEight, finds Harris currently has a 1.4-point lead over Trump, with 48.1 percent to 46.7 percent. The candidates are almost deadlocked across the swing states too.