Harris surges with Black voters in key battleground states but gaps remain

After two years without work, Darryl Gatewood got a job earlier this year driving a pharmaceutical delivery truck in suburban Pennsylvania – a good-paying job, with healthcare.

It was a sign of an improving economy. But his financial struggles, and his wife's health issues, aren't far behind him. The economy is his No. 1 concern this election year, he said, and as a Black man and a registered Democrat in a swing state, his vote for president is still up for grabs.

He is among those still undecided about whether to support Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, or a third-party candidate for president.

"They say Trump is about rich folks," said Gatewood, 59, "but is she going to do something for everybody? What is she going to do for the whole of the country?"

Support for Harris' presidential run among Black voters in the key battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania is soaring, but the presumptive Democratic nominee has to do more to ease concerns of young, low-income and undecided Black voters about rising grocery bills and housing costs, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

The survey of 500 Black voters in each of those states conducted last weekend shows they favor vice president Harris over former President Trump by a 7 to 1 margin in Michigan and by nearly that much in Pennsylvania.

But the poll also pointed to significant concerns among groups hardest hit by years of inflation. And if voters like Gatewood opt for a third-party candidate, it could cost Harris the election in what remains a tight national race.

The poll results come as Harris and her running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz head into next week's Democratic National Convention, where experts say the campaign has to make a pitch that will bring uncommitted and third-party voters into their fold.

"With 80 days to the election, to win, Harris must still gain ground among young, low-income and independent voters," said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

Enthusiasm on the rise

Still, enthusiasm for the Harris bid is rising, the poll shows. Harris replaced Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket in July after the president was pressured to step down from his reelection bid.

“It’s like looking at a team that was down 24 points in the first quarter and now it’s even," Paleologos said. "We’re in the fourth quarter and nobody wants to fumble the ball away or throw an interception.”

Harris has been campaigning across the country, including in Pennsylvania where she introduced Walz as her running mate at a rally in Philadelphia. She plans to return there this weekend.

The Suffolk poll showed a bump in favorability ratings for Harris in Michigan and Pennsylvania, compared to when Biden was headlining.

In Michigan, Harris' favorability rating climbed to 72% versus 16% unfavorability, compared to a favorable-unfavorable rating of 60% to 24% in June when Biden was in the race. In Pennsylvania, it was up to 68% to 19% in August from 55% to 30% in June.

Black voters in these two crucial swing states, who were feeling ho-hum about the presidential race in June, say they are very likely to actually cast a ballot for Harris this fall. The poll found 77% of those surveyed were now "very motivated" to vote for Harris while only 52% said the same for Biden in the earlier poll. In Pennsylvania, 78% were very motivated to vote for Harris, compared to 61% who said they were motivated to vote for Biden in June.

“There's an exceptionally high level of motivation today," Paleologos said. "The question is, is the margin high enough? The margin is not high enough (yet)."

Harris is not at the 13 to 1 ratio Biden got in 2020 and that she likely needs to win in these states. “When you're at 70% you need to win 92% according to the exit polls,'' he said. "There's still a ways to go.’’

Harris needs third-party, undecided voters

Even as Harris continues to surge, not locking up third-party voters could be problematic, Paleologos said.

Nikia Mumin-Washington, 44, is likely among their ranks. A retired crossing guard for the Philadelphia Police Department, she said she is leaning toward voting for academic Cornel West. She knows about and appreciates his work, especially his call for unity.

“Not that other ones aren’t about that,’’ Mumin-Washington said. “It was just on the strength that he was the one I knew.”

A registered Democrat, she plans to watch how the election plays out and vote based on how she feels.

“I'd rather vote the way that I want to vote instead of just going along with the popular one,’’ she said. “I'm not the one just to buy something just because it's the hottest thing on the block.”

In Pennsylvania, 8% of poll respondents said they intended to vote for one of four third-party candidates, including independents West and Robert F. Kennedy, the Green Party's Jill Stein or Libertarian Chase Oliver. In Michigan, 11% of poll respondents said they'd vote for a third-party candidate.

It's not yet clear how many of these candidates will be on the ballot and in which states. RFK has said he'll make the ballot in all 50 states, but Democrats have been pushing hard to get him disqualified and he was recently blocked from the New York ballot for listing a friend's address as his own on his nominating petitions.

West was disqualified from the Michigan ballot Friday for technical reasons.

Tre Pearson, 23, of Mount Clemens, Michigan, said he remains undecided on who to support for president. Four years ago he voted for Trump but chose Biden in the Michigan state primary in February.

“Honestly, it was more like 'Shoot, it can’t get any more worse. Both candidates are the lesser of two evils,'” Pearson said.

Now, Pearson is reevaluating his options after Harris replaced Biden.

“I’m not leaning towards anybody,” said Pearson, a construction worker and an active National Guard member who did a tour in Syria, last year. “I’m aiming towards who’s going to take care of the community.”

Besides the rising food costs, Pearson said finding affordable housing continues to be challenging. He said jobs, especially in Michigan’s revered auto industry are now scarce.

Pearson said he knows what Trump is all about, but before considering Harris, he needs to know more about her.

“She really needs to connect on her agenda, be more personable, more authentic,” Pearson said. “Just be yourself, because at the end of the day, nobody cares what you are, they care how you are.”

Harris may have more opportunities to define herself in the minds of these "mixed-bag voters" than Trump, because she's less well known to them, said John Cluverius, a political science professor at the University of Massachusetts Lowell.

"Harris has a chance to be more relatable with the mood of these voters," Cluverius said. "Her pitch of not going back is probably the broadest appeal possible and speaks to voters upset with inflation, abortion rights, and healthcare."

If it comes down to the wire and her vote could make a difference, Mumin-Washington said she may reconsider Harris. Trump isn't an option for her. “You might want to jump on the side of good,’’ she said.

For some Black voters, tough economy is top of mind

The economy and rising costs were among the most pressing issues for Black voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

This was especially true for those making less than $50,000 a year, the poll found.

In Pennsylvania in June, for example, 34% of people with the lowest incomes said their personal financial situation had gotten worse over the last four years and about the same percentage said it had improved. By August, 42% of that group said they were worse off and only 22% said they were doing better.

“If there is an economic rebound that's happening in the country, it’s not being felt among low-income households in the Black community,’’ Paleologos said. “As a matter of fact, over the last two months, it's actually getting worse, and that's a problem that Kamala Harris and the Democrats have to figure that out. They have to grapple with that in terms of policy.”

Still, he said, support for Harris is high among Black voters overall.

“What that tells us is that as bad as things are economically and financially, if push comes to shove, they're still going to cast a ballot despite their own personal situation not working out for them right now,’’ he said. “Maybe they believe that in the coming years, under a Harris administration, that things will get better.”

Other polling firms have similar findings.

Terrance Woodbury, co-founder of HIT Strategies, a public opinion research firm, said Black voters like others are concerned about the high cost of groceries and housing.

Apparently aware of the weakness, on Friday, the Harris-Walz campaign released an agenda meant to speak to the voters who are hurting the most in the current economy. The proposal would ban price-gouging practices on groceries and food, cap prescription drug prices and provide tax credits and benefits to buoy families and first-time home buyers.

Linnea Faller, 36, a professional dog walker who lives in Pittsburgh, said she wants to be better informed before she decides who to vote for in November.

Faller, a registered Democrat who voted for Biden in 2020, said she hasn’t paid much attention yet, but plans to look more into the candidate's positions on issues, such as resources for urban schools, affordable housing, homelessness, poverty, crime and underemployment.

“I would probably default to the Democrat nominee, but I don’t feel good about it. I want to make sure that I stand by it,” she said.

“Obviously, I’m not voting for Trump. The character stuff is important to me too.”

Faller said she doesn’t know much about the independent candidates, but hasn’t ruled them out.

Still, like many Black voters, she's excited to see a Black person at the top of the ticket.

“There’s a part of me that feels very compelled to vote for Harris because she's a Black, slash biracial ? just woman,’’ Faller said, noting that she wasn't as enthusiastic about Hillary Clinton’s 2016 bid to become the first female president. “Even though Harris has been kind of under the radar quite a lot, I'm like, ‘Man, this is a moment for my people.’ ‘’

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Black voters prefer Harris over Trump but it's still a contest