Harris v. Trump poll: Americans trust the count but worry about violence

And the day after?

Election angst won't end on Election Day, a new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds. Americans, fiercely divided between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump, are concerned about the accuracy of the vote count, anxious about the peaceful transition of power and even braced for political violence.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters, taken Oct. 14 to 18 by landline and cellphone, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Here are seven takeaways about what happens once the ballots are cast.

Do you trust the vote count?

Nearly 8 in 10 voters do. Most said they were "very" confident (43%) or "somewhat" confident (36%) that the results of the election will be accurately counted and reported.

But trust was higher among Harris supporters than those who back Trump. Among Harris voters, 70% were very confident and another 25% were somewhat confident; just 4% were not. In contrast, a third of Trump voters, 34%, said they were not confident. The former president has fueled those concerns by continuing to argue without evidence that the 2020 election was "rigged" against him.

Pamela Anderson, 78, a retiree and Trump supporter from Alabama who was called in the poll, isn't sure whether she can be confident about the returns. "That's kind of a toss-up," she said.

"I have faith in the institutions that we've had in place," said Kyle Ejsmont, 32, a Harris supporter from Philadelphia. But that may not be the final word, he said. "I read reports that Republicans are bringing a lot of litigation forward to kind of challenge the ballot casting and collection process, so that makes me really worried."

Will you accept the outcome?

Most say they will, but not everybody.

If Harris loses, her supporters by an overwhelming 88% to 7% said they were prepared to accept the results of the election as fair and accurate.

"I will accept it as legitimate, but I will have a very hard time having to deal with that," said Lisa Dolan, 59, a Democrat and retired business owner from Robinson, Illinois.

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If Trump loses, his backers by 61% to 24% said they would accept the results ? which means 1 in 4 are ready to refuse to accept Harris as the legitimately elected president.

"Even me and my armchair-quarterbacking here, I saw things that looked weird" in the last election, said Rhonda Wax, 63, a Republican from Murfreesboro, Tennessee, who supports Trump. "A lot of things looked bad and I certainly understand why people thought that it could have been stolen, and we know elections have been stolen," she said.

She mentioned allegations of election fraud in Texas in 1960, but there has been no evidence of significant election fraud in a presidential contest in the past half-century.

Trust higher in local election officials

Trump voters expressed stronger confidence in their local vote count than the national one. By 79% to 12%, they trusted local election officials and bipartisan observers to conduct a fair and transparent election. That confidence was even higher among Harris voters, 95% to 12%.

The disparity with faith in the national returns may be because voters see local voting operations themselves, rather than relying on accounts about what is happening in other places.

"I have done ID checks for incoming voters on Election Day," said Mark Lioi, 59, a copy editor and a political independent from Wellington, Florida. "I have participated in a recount in the 2008 presidential race here in Palm Beach County." Polling places are "well-run by capable people," he said. "There's no way you can coordinate an election-stealing effort the way we have it set up."

Fear losing and/or cheer winning?

In this election, the agony of defeat looms as a more powerful force than the thrill of victory.

If Trump wins, 37% of those surveyed said they would feel "scared," the most negative of four reactions offered as options, while 23% would be "enthusiastic," the most positive one.

If Harris wins, 30% would feel "scared" and 27% "enthusiastic" ? a closer margin, but still tilting negative.

"He's just a very scary person," Lisa Dolan, who supports Harris, said of Trump. "Everything that he represents; his stance against women; his immigration policies; his economic policies ? just everything."

Anderson, who supports Trump, expressed alarm about the consequences if Harris wins, mentioning especially the impact of illegal immigration on schools and crime.

"I'll have a new granddaughter that's coming into this world in February of '25 and I have five other grandchildren," she said. "I don't worry about me; I worry about them. If we don't have change, I don't know what the United States is going to come to."

Most Americans are braced for violence

Two-thirds of those surveyed are concerned about the possibility of political violence on Election Day and afterwards.

That includes 27% who are "very concerned" and 39% who are "somewhat concerned." Only 31% are "not very" or "not at all" concerned.

There was a deep partisan divide on the question. Nearly 9 of 10 Harris supporters (86%) were worried about the prospect of violence, but almost half of Trump supporters (47%) said they weren't particularly concerned.

"Violence has a way of snowballing, and it's been snowballing for some time," said Daniel Mori, 45, a Republican from New York City who plans to vote for Harris. He sees little sign of the sort of "political dialogue" that would push back that rise. "I do suspect that we haven't seen the end of political violence yet."

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Patricia Smith, 54, a homemaker from Lawton, Oklahoma, who supports Trump, dismissed worries about attacks like the assault on the Capitol as Electoral College votes were being counted in the last presidential election, on Jan. 6, 2021.

"The violence wasn't any worse than things that happened in Wisconsin or Seattle, Washington, with all the race riots," she said. "Violence is violence."

Will there be a peaceful transition of power?

It depends on whom you ask.

Three-fourths of Trump supporters believe there will be a peaceful transfer of power in January, including 36% who was "very confident" and 38% "somewhat confident;" 13% were "not very confident" and only 7% were "not at all confident."

Harris supporters weren't so sure. A third, 35%, expressed little or no confidence in that; only 17% were "very confident."

"I think Harris will have the electoral and the popular vote," said Erin Parker, 52, of Tangent, Oregon, a registered Republican who leans independent and plans to vote for Harris. "But I'm afraid that it's going to be close enough that Trump is going to contest it and try to overthrow everything."

Voters to the candidates: Don't be a sore loser

Most voters, 64% to 22%, want their candidate to attend the inauguration on Jan. 20 if they lose the election.

That includes 72% of Harris supporters; she would customarily attend as the departing vice president. A 54% majority of Trump voters think he should attend, too. Former presidents are traditionally invited. But 27% said Trump shouldn't attend, and an additional 18% were undecided.

"I was disappointed that Trump didn't go to the inauguration" in 2020, Wax, a Trump supporter, said, though she said she could understand why. "I do think he probably felt cheated."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Harris v. Trump poll shows trust in the count but worries of violence