Hate crimes reached record levels in 2023. Why 'a perfect storm' could push them higher

The number of hate crimes reported to police in the nation's 10 largest cities rose again in 2023, according to preliminary data released Friday from the Center for the Study of Hate and Extremism at California State University.

The annual study found at least 2,184 hate crimes were reported across New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, Philadelphia, San Antonio, San Diego, Dallas, and Austin last year, an increase of nearly 13% from 2022 driven in part by upticks in anti-Jewish and anti-Muslim attacks amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. A larger analysis of 25 American cities found hate crimes increased an average of 17% from 2022, according to the study.

"The top 10 cities generally match what's going to happen nationally," said Brian Levin, professor emeritus and founder of the Center for the Study of Hate & Extremism at California State University, San Bernardino.

What is a hate crime?

The FBI defines a hate crime as a "committed criminal offense which is motivated, in whole or in part, by the offender’s bias(es) against a race, religion, disability, sexual orientation, ethnicity, gender, or gender identity."

Anti-Jewish, anti-Muslim hate crimes rise amid Israel-Hamas war

New York and Los Angeles saw some of the largest increases in anti-Jewish hate crimes, rising 12.6% and 48% respectively, while Los Angeles and Chicago saw 40% and 300% increases in anti-Muslim hate crimes, according to the study.

"It just explodes after October 7," Levin said, referencing the day Hamas-led militants killed 1,200 Israelis and took more than 240 hostages.

Levin said the data indicates national FBI hate crime data will also likely show a record number of anti-Jewish hate crimes when it is released later in the year. He said anti-Muslim hate crimes could also reach their highest levels since the last peak between 2015 and 2017.

The increase caused Jewish people to surpass African Americans as the most-targeted group in America's largest 10 cities. Black Americans and gay Americans were the other most-targeted groups.

Levin said the uptick in antisemitic attacks is part of a larger, decadeslong pattern.

"In the 1990s and the first decade of this century, anti-Jewish hate crimes spiked in the months around Israel-Palestinian conflict," he said. "We consistently see increases in anti-Jewish hate crimes when there is violence in the Holy Land."

Several cities break decades-old hate crime records

Four of the top ten largest cities - Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston and Austin - all broke hate crime records dating back to the early 1990s, according to Levin's research. Houston saw a nearly 200% increase in hate crimes, according to the preliminary report.

Several other major cities including San Francisco, Washington, Denver, Kansas City, Seattle, Las Vegas, Boston and Salt Lake City also saw increases, the report found.

Hate crime data is flawed

Levin stressed his data is preliminary and had already begun to change in the days after its initial release as law enforcement agencies released new information.

Part of the reason the center studies data from a limited list of cities is because national hate crime data is notoriously flawed. It's not mandatory for all of the country's more than 18,000 law enforcement agencies to submit data on hate crimes and in 2022, less than 80% of agencies submitted data to the FBI.

FBI data released in October showed there were 11,643 reported hate crimes in 2022. But Levin said other datasets show the numbers are likely much higher. The Bureau of Justice Statistics, for example, reported U.S. residents experienced about 246,900 hate crime victimizations each year between 2005 and 2019.

Levin said there is also "massive underreporting" of hate crimes to law enforcement, particularly among certain communities. He said there's concern, for example, the decline in anti-Asian hate crimes after a dramatic rise amid the COVID-19 pandemic could be due to victims not reporting the incidents.

"The data strongly suggest that we see a decline, but some of that decline, I believe, could be due to the fact that outreach is not as publicized and as obvious as it was when there was an all-hands-on-deck approach during the pandemic," he said.

Elections could cause another spike in 2024

Levin said it's unlikely hate crimes will decrease in 2024 in part because every election year since data collection began in the 1990s has seen an increase in hate crimes. A report from the Leadership Conference Education Fund, a national civil rights group, similarly found FBI data shows an "unmistakable pattern" of reported hate crimes spiking during presidential elections and warned "there are few – if any – signs that tensions will lessen."

Levin also said the increase in hate crimes despite a nationwide decrease in violent crimes in 2022 demonstrates the persistence of bias-motivated crimes.

"It's so resilient that we bounce from a pandemic to a war and now an election year, it's almost like a perfect storm," he said. "So I'm really concerned about that."

Contributing: Grace Hauck, Claire Thornton, Will Carless, John Bacon and Jorge L. Ortiz; USA TODAY

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hate crimes hit record levels in 2023: Why 2024 could be even worse