House Republicans brace for leadership scramble

House Republicans are bracing for potential leadership shake-ups in the coming weeks, a post-election scramble that will heavily depend on who wins control of the lower chamber and White House in November.

The biggest wildcard is what Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) will do. The Louisiana Republican has said he wants to continue to lead the House GOP conference if they retain the majority, but has been mum on his plans if Democrats take the upper hand in the lower chamber.

Amid that uncertainty, Republican lawmakers have their eyes on the next moves of Rep. Steve Scalise (R-La.), the No. 2 House GOP leader; Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who has conspicuously worked to increase his fundraising across the conference; and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.), who has made an effort to repair his relationship with former President Trump.

And hanging over the leadership conversation is Trump himself, whose support could tip the scales in favor of one Republican over another — especially if he wins another term in the White House.

In conversations with The Hill, nearly two dozen Republican lawmakers, aides and operatives said next year’s House GOP leadership lineup — which will be determined the after the election — remains up in the air.

“I don’t know what the chess board’s going to look like,” one House Republican told The Hill, “but I definitely think there are some people who are trying to make some moves.”

What does Speaker Johnson do?

Johnson has made it clear that he hopes to keep his gavel if the party retains control of the chamber — particularly if Trump wins the White House and Republicans flip the Senate.

But he has not said whether he would seek to lead the House GOP if Republicans lose. Asked about that scenario last month, Johnson told reporters “we’ll cross that bridge when we come to it.”

The dominant view among Republicans, however, is that Johnson would not remain atop the House GOP conference if it is relegated to the minority. Some lawmakers say members of the Speaker’s leadership team could also lose their positions in that scenario.

“If we lose the majority, there will be leadership shake-up,” one House Republican said, adding that the status of Johnson’s deputies would be “questionable.”

Even if Republicans win control of the House, the size of their majority could put Johnson’s chances for remaining Speaker in question.

A small majority means that even a handful of members could threaten Johnson’s prospect of being elected Speaker again on the House floor — the same scenario that played out when a handful of Republicans blocked former Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) from being elected Speaker for five days  at the start of 2023.

At least one Republican is already warning that they will not get behind Johnson’s bid under any circumstances.

“I’m not voting for him come hell or high water,” Massie said.

Frustration about Johnson’s handling of Ukraine funding and his approach to government spending fights has fueled his handful of House GOP antagonists. And even if Johnson secures the GOP nomination for Speaker relatively easily — which requires a simple majority vote in a secret ballot — he will have several more legislative minefields to navigate in the lame-duck before the January Speaker election, including a government funding deadline and potential rules changes.

“If he gets rolled again, I mean, that’s not going to go well,” said Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), who has expressed support for Jordan in leadership discussions. “It doesn’t seem like it’s a way to set yourself up for success to agree to a December [continuing resolution].”

Jordan spurs speculation

Members are keeping a particular eye on Jordan, the chair of the House Judiciary Committee, who has crisscrossed the country to campaign for a diverse swath of House Republicans in recent weeks — a shift from the bulk of his congressional career, when the former Freedom Caucus chairman typically worked to boost fellow hardline conservatives.

The Ohio Republican has campaigned for and donated to members who publicly opposed his bid for Speaker last year, including Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.). For years, Jordan did not contribute any money to the National Republican Congressional Committee — but this year, his donations to the House GOP’s campaign arm have reached $2.5 million.

That show of support has caught the eyes of fellow House Republicans.

“No one’s overly said it. But if you watch the interplay, Jim Jordan going around the country, raising money … I think that makes people nervous,” a Republican said.

Aside from the money game, Jordan appears to be trying to bolster his relationships with others in the conference. One GOP lawmaker recounted a moment on the House floor when Jordan asked for their contact information.

“Jim Jordan asked me for my cell phone the other day. I’m like — he tried calling me the other day. Oh, that’s new. That’s new. That’s interesting,” one GOP member said.

The most speculated-about — and dramatic — scenario would be Jordan making a run for House minority leader.

Jordan has said he is focused on remaining chairman of the House Judiciary Committee — but he has not completely ruled out a leadership run. A spokesperson for Jordan declined to comment for this article.

Jordan would surely secure plenty of support from hardline Republicans who have praised his talent for aggressively confronting Democrats and relentlessly pushing a conservative agenda.

“I’m clearly very much on record thinking that Jim Jordan would be the most capable person to lead our conference,” Davidson said. “I don’t know that it’s a relevant thing, I don’t know that there’ll be a different race or anything.”

That support, however, would likely be counteracted by some moderates and appropriators taking issue with the firebrand’s past votes against stopgap funding measures and farm bills.

Scalise still in the mix

A bid by Jordan for minority leader could put him in competition with members of the current leadership team — including Scalise, who has served in the No. 2 spot in the House GOP conference for nearly five years and would be next in line should Johnson tap out of the top job.

Scalise was the first nominee to replace McCarthy when he was ousted in October. He dropped his bid when Jordan’s allies withheld support, leaving backers of Scalise with lingering resentment.

Jordan became the second nominee for Speaker but faced opposition on the floor from Scalise allies and appropriators, which tanked his bid after three rounds of voting.

A showdown would bring that bitterness back to the surface.

One House Republican said that the minority leader slot is Jordan’s best bet to lead the group since it only requires a simple majority of the House GOP conference on a secret ballot rather than 218 votes on the House floor.

But an ally of Scalise was not so sure the secret ballot would work in Jordan’s favor, arguing some Republicans may be more willing to vote against Jordan on a private ballot rather than in a public vote because there would be less risk of backlash from the conservative base.

And while Jordan’s contributions to the NRCC is notable given his history, it is a small fraction of what others have raised. Scalise, for example, has transferred $15.2 million to the NRCC this cycle, and has raised $55.8 million in total across various fundraising.

Some members are skeptical that Jordan’s outreach to more moderate Republicans would compare to Scalise’s years of relationship-building and fundraising.

“While it’s nice that somebody, all of a sudden … decides to start wanting to be part of the team, you know, that’s great, but they have a long way to go,” the Scalise ally said. “There are some people like Scalise and others who have, for year after year after year, [been] helping the team.”

The Trump factor

Trump has sought to influence numerous public fights on Capitol Hill — and several House Republicans say the leadership race could be no different, especially if he wins in November.

Some GOP lawmakers are holding off on picking a favorite in the leadership conversation because Trump has not yet weighed in.

“I don’t know who Trump’s backing yet, so that’s obviously a factor,” Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.), a staunch supporter of the former president, said when asked about her leadership preferences. “We need a good negotiator and Trump’s good at picking negotiators.”

Johnson has maintained a strong relationship with the former president, and one House Republican predicted that if Trump wins the White House and the GOP holds the House, the president-elect will back Johnson and the Louisiana Republican will keep his job.

“If he loses, and we lose, it’ll be decided in the catacombs of the Capitol building,” the lawmaker added.

The relationship between Trump and Johnson has been the subject of beltway intrigue for months, especially after the Speaker helped pass Ukraine aid — which many Trump allies opposed — and he cut a deal with Democrats to keep the government open.

One Republican described their connection as a “marriage.”

“There are good days and bad days… there are moments where I’m sure they would prefer to hang up on each other, and then there are members that they are absolutely in sync,” the lawmaker said. “No divorce papers have been served.”

Other Republican options

Republicans also pointed to another leader who is no stranger to how Trump’s influence can upend internal politics: Emmer, the majority whip who previously served as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee for two cycles.

Emmer briefly ran for Speaker last year before abruptly withdrawing hours after he was nominated to the post because of public opposition from Trump.

But Emmer has patched up his relationship with the former president — endorsing him ahead of the Iowa caucuses, and prepping Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) for the vice presidential debate by playing Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D).

Some members speculate that if Republicans lose, there could be a major overhaul at the top of the House GOP leadership — with Emmer in the mix.

“I think the fight will be there, if we’re in the minority, the fight will be between Emmer and Jim [Jordan] to run for minority leader — not between Mike Johnson and Scalise,” one Republican said. “I think it’ll be a cleaning the house kind of deal.”

Jordan is known for his close ties to Trump, a relationship that could help him.

Trump could also influence the leadership ranks through staffing for his administration.

A source familiar with the matter told The Hill that they heard directly from House Republican Conference Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) that she wants to serve in a potential Trump administration — a move that would leave an open spot in the No. 4 leadership position.

As leadership speculation continues to swirl, and the election enters its final stage, some Republicans are warning to take Trump’s potential stamp of approval with a grain of salt, saying it will not necessarily garner unanimous agreement within the conference.

“If Trump backs a legitimate, well-respected leader, I think that well-respected leader has a great chance of being selected,” a GOP lawmaker said. “If Trump goes with somebody who can’t do the job, you’re not gonna see blind loyalty from 218 members of the conference.”

Copyright 2024 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

For the latest news, weather, sports, and streaming video, head to The Hill.