Hurricane forecast: Colorado State meteorologists predict very active storm season

Greg Giesen and Cheryl McCloud, USA TODAY NETWORK

Updated Fri, April 5, 2024 at 12:19 AM UTC

4 min read

CORRECTION: A headline on earlier versions of this story had an incorrect number for predicted hurricanes. The Colorado State University forecast is predicting 23 named storms with 11 becoming hurricanes.

Colorado State University meteorologists are predicting a very active hurricane season, according to their forecast released Thursday.

The forecast includes the highest number of hurricanes ever predicted in an April forecast by Colorado State since the team began issuing predictions in 1995. It is calling for 23 named storms this year. Of those 23 storms, 11 will become hurricanes and five will become major hurricanes.

Colorado State University releases 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast.

The predictions are in line with the predictions from Accuweather.com. The National Hurricane Center will release its forecast in May.

Why are so many hurricanes predicted?

Forecasters are seeing the combination of La Nin?a and record warm water temperatures causing a very active season in the Atlantic basin, which is made up of the northern Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

"Current El Ni?o conditions are likely to transition to La Ni?a conditions this summer/fall, leading to hurricane-favorable wind shear conditions," CSU meteorologists said. "Sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central Atlantic are currently at record warm levels and are anticipated to remain well above average for the upcoming hurricane season."

What are categories for a major hurricane?

Major hurricanes are anything above a Category 3 storm.

Here's a breakdown of what happens with storms from Category 3 to Category 5:

What's the probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S.?

A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher. A Category 3 storm has maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Entire continental U.S. coastline: 62% (average from 1880-2020 is 43%)
East Coast: 34% (average from 1880-2020 is 21%)

What was Accuweather's forecast?

AccuWeather released its 2024 hurricane seasonal forecast Wednesday, March 27 calling for an above normal season.

Accuweather.com meteorologists are forecasting:

20-25 named storms across the Atlantic basin in 2024
8-12 hurricanes
4-7 major hurricanes
4-6 direct U.S. impacts

This is all above the 30-year historical average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes and four direct U.S. impacts.

Recent hurricanes to hit Delaware

While Delaware has been impacted by hurricanes over the years, a few have made more damage than others. Here are some recent storms that made a big impact.

In 2020, Isaias moved directly across Delaware as a tropical storm. It caused tornadoes and power outages. One person died from the storm — the first hurricane-related death since 2011.
In 2012, Superstorm Sandy impacted the entire state as it made landfall in South Jersey. Despite not having a direct hit, public and private losses still rose into the tens of millions of dollars.
In 2011, remnants of Hurricane Irene brought heavy rains to Delaware and a tornado damaged homes in Lewes. Two deaths were attributed to the storm.

Delaware hurricane risk: How La Ni?a may affect US weather and worsen hurricane season

When does hurricane season begin?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Storms can and do form before and after those dates, though.

National Hurricane Center making changes for 2024

The National Hurricane Center will bring out an experimental tropical cyclone forecast cone graphic just in time for the busiest months of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

The forecast cone has been a staple of hurricane forecasting letting people know a storm's predicted path and the areas for the highest probability of damage. However, the hurricane center is changing the way it's using the cone to give people a better idea of what kind of damage they may face. Watches and warnings for the region impacted by the storm will take precedence over the cone.

The change is coming because it gives people a more accurate idea of how they will be impacted by tropical storms or hurricane-force winds. Mapping the watches and warnings will help people impacted prepare for the storm.

Other changes from the National Hurricane Center for the 2024 hurricane season include:

Tropical storm, hurricane and storm surge watches and warnings will be issued for intermediate advisories in addition to the full advisories.
Tropical storm wind radius forecasts will go out five days instead of three days.
The National Hurricane Center will expand information provided in Spanish.

NHC new cone of uncertainty: National Hurricane Center changing way cone of uncertainty is used