Hurricane Kristy tracker: Category 4 storm expected to weaken rapidly

Editor's Note: Follow along here for the latest updates on Hurricane Kristy on Saturday, Oct. 26.

Hurricane Kristy strengthened into a Category 5 storm Thursday night before weakening back into a Category 4 storm, with rapid weakening expected throughout the day Friday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

As of Friday morning, the storm was located about 1,055 miles west-southwest from the southern tip of Baja, California, and had maximum sustained winds near 150 mph with higher gusts.

Kristy is expected to take a turn toward the northwest later Friday, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the weekend, according to the NHC.

"Some fluctuations in intensity are expected through this morning, with rapid weakening expected to begin by tonight," NHC forecasters said in an advisory Friday morning.

Forecasters also said swells generated by Kristy will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula on Friday and Saturday, with the swells "likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions."

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Storm brewing in the Atlantic?

AccuWeather forecasters say there is a chance for development of a tropical depression or storm next week. The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season would be Patty and Rafael.

"We suspect there will be another attempt for a tropical depression or tropical storm to brew in the western Caribbean during the middle to the latter part of next week," said Bernie Rayno, AccuWeather chief on-air meteorologist.

Record warm waters that have helped spur tropical development throughout the season continue, especially in the Caribbean Sea. Combine that with low chances for wind shear and you have conditions that support development of tropical cyclones.

"A large storm or gyre may again form near the western Caribbean, which, when factoring in warm waters and low wind shear, could foster new but slow development," AccuWeather said.

There is some good news should a storm develop and move toward the U.S.: "Long-range models keep very hostile wind shear across Florida and along continental U.S. waters into the first week of November, which would offer protection from any mischief that may come over the next few weeks," WPLG-TV meteorologist Michael Lowry told USA TODAY earlier this week.

But it's still early to be talking about the path of a possible storm.

"The track of any new tropical feature in the Caribbean will depend on exactly where it forms and the overall strength and movement of non-tropical features farther to the north over the United States and the western Atlantic," AccuWeather said.

Hurricane Kristy path tracker

This forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.

Hurricane Kristy spaghetti models

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest-performing models to help make its forecasts.

Gabe Hauari is a national trending news reporter at USA TODAY. You can follow him on X @GabeHauari or email him at [email protected].

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Kristy tracker: See path, spaghetti models of Category 4 storm