Some hurricane models show Sara could hit Florida. Here's what forecasters say.

The eventual path and strength of newly named Tropical Storm Sara remain uncertain Thursday, with forecasters closely monitoring each computer model run as the system spins in the Caribbean Sea near storm-vulnerable Central America, where a "catastrophic flooding disaster" is possible.

In a recent worst-case scenario for the U.S., a major hurricane could strike Florida's Gulf coast by the middle of next week, but forecasters say it would first have to clear several hurdles.

Potential obstacles to a path toward Florida include a track across Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula that could weaken the storm and a cold front expected to sweep across the Gulf of Mexico early next week that could obliterate the storm before it reaches the Florida peninsula, Brian McNoldy, a senior research scientist at the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School, told USA TODAY.

The chances of Sara clearing all those obstacles seem increasingly unlikely. On Thursday, the hurricane center said Sara is unlikely to survive its trip along Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. The official forecast now calls for the storm to dissipate by Tuesday.

But if Sara survives to strike the Florida coast, it would be the state's fourth landfalling hurricane this year, behind Debby, Helene and Milton. "Florida doesn't need to deal with another impact," said AccuWeather meteorologist Jon Porter.

Too soon to be sure what Sara's path could be

After becoming a named tropical storm Thursday, Sara is expected to “steadily or even rapidly strengthen over the warm waters” of the western Caribbean and be at or near hurricane intensity as it approaches the coast of Central America on Friday and Saturday, National Hurricane Center director Michael Brennan said in an update Wednesday evening.

“It’s much too soon to determine what impacts this system could eventually bring to portions of the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys and Cuba during the middle portion of next week, but residents in these areas should regularly monitor updates to the forecast,” Brennan said.

A 'catastrophic flooding disaster'

If the center of the storm stays a little farther offshore, the storm could be stronger, but if it moves inland, it could weaken, Brennan said. ”It’s still going to be a huge rainfall threat and that is going to be the biggest hazard here that's going to play out over Central America over the next several days.”

“The potential for catastrophic life-threatening flash flooding and rainfall is largely the biggest hazard in terms of fatalities here across Central America when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes,” Brennan said. The center is forecasting 10 to 20 inches of rain in northern Honduras, with isolated locations getting as much as 30 inches of rainfall.

"This could be a catastrophic flooding disaster for parts of Central America, especially Honduras and Nicaragua," Porter told USA TODAY. Rainfall rates of 4 inches per hour are possible, which is simply too fast and too furious for the land to handle, he said.

According to a Thursday newsletter from WPLG-TV meteorologist Michael Lowry, "this part of the Caribbean has been ravaged by severe flooding in the recent past, including most notably in late October and early November 1998 when Hurricane Mitch flooded parts of Honduras, Guatemala, and Nicaragua with upwards of 25 to 50 inches of catastrophic rain, causing over 10,000 confirmed deaths, and making it one of the deadliest Atlantic tropical cyclones on record."

Spaghetti models for Sara show uncertainty

The runs of one American ensemble model model on Wednesday were showing a weak system approaching Florida, as it tangles with the cold front.

The latest model run “does not beat the cold front, it kind of has this weak thing emerging from the Yucatan into the Gulf of Mexico and more or less gets absorbed/obliterated by the cold front,” McNoldy said.

That would be “great news for Florida if that happens,” he said. “One, because we want a cold front and two, we don't want a hurricane.”

Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts. 

What's steering the storm?

The main story over the next few days is the lack of large-scale weather patterns that could steer Sara one way or another, said McNoldy. “It’s going to drift westward basically for the next 5 days or so, but there’s a lot that rides on the exact trajectory of that drift.”

“If it spends those few days over the Caribbean, that's a very different outcome than if it spends a few of those days over Honduras,” McNoldy said.

“That can be a make or break it, if it spends three or four days over Honduras, that could be the end we hear of it," he said. Tropical cyclones can’t sustain themselves over land because they need the exchange with the ocean’s warm water for fuel.

The key questions are whether the storm survives its encounter with Honduras to enter the Gulf, and if it enters the Gulf, will it be able to move fast enough to get ahead of the cold front, McNoldy said. “It has some obstacles ahead of it.”

In addition, Porter cautioned that only minor variations in steering winds can make a big difference in the eventual path of the storm.

(This story has been updated to add new information.)

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane spaghetti models show Sara could hit Florida. Will it?