Indiana governor's race: Many candidates, little time to grab voters' interest
In less than four months, Republicans in Indiana will go to the polls and consider a handful of well-funded candidates for governor — people whose faces they've probably seen many times on their TV screens or on social media.
Those candidates will have spent tens of millions, collectively, vying for voters' attention, trying to convince them that they are the one with the best solutions for their problems, that they are different enough from their ideologically similar opponents to earn the coveted nomination.
Statewide, Indiana has gotten red enough that the general elections are rarely competitive anymore ― it would take an extraordinary set of circumstances for a Democrat today to overcome the electoral math. So the 2024 governor's race is most likely to be fought in the GOP primary, and with a historic level of competition.
"In Indiana, the Republican nomination for governor is very much worth having, so I can see why a lot of people would seek it," said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the national elections newsletter Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Those seeking the Republican nomination include U.S. Sen. Mike Braun, former state Commerce Secretary Brad Chambers, Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, Fort Wayne businessman Eric Doden, former Attorney General Curtis Hill and Indianapolis mother Jamie Reitenour. Donald Rainwater is running as a Libertarian and former state schools Superintendent Jennifer McCormick as a Democrat.
To get on the ballot in May, candidates must collect 500 signatures from each of Indiana's nine congressional districts. Some candidates have announced they've reached that threshold, but it's not official until the Feb. 6 deadline, when county voter registration offices will verify their petitions. Rainwater, whose party doesn't have a primary, has until July 1 to hand in his signatures.
The next four months will be hectic as Republican candidates attempt to differentiate themselves, fend off attack ads and debate one another, all while the state legislature is in session and indicted former President Donald Trump seeks to return to the White House.
Read their responses: Get to know the 2024 Indiana gubernatorial candidates with Q&A's
Who's who: Their basic pitches
Each Republican candidate essentially passes the conservative litmus test: They are pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, supportive of law enforcement, and in favor of smaller government and fewer taxes.
In public appearances they each home in on particular aspects of themselves they present as different from the rest:
Braun is the entrepreneurial "problem solver" with a track record in business and government to flex.
Chambers is new to the business of political campaigning and argues strengthening the economy holds the key to solving Indiana's other problems.
Crouch has the longest resume in government, talks of "bold" ideas like cutting the state income tax and speaks candidly about her personal connection to mental health issues.
Doden pitches a "92-county strategy" that involves reinvigorating small towns, leaning on his experience in Fort Wayne.
Hill describes himself a "proven conservative leader" and "fighter" and frequently invokes culture-war topics.
Reitenour, a devout Christian, expresses her platform through a faith-focused lens.
The non-Republicans in the race
In 2020, Rainwater successfully captured anti-government-overreach sentiments in reaction to COVID-19 lockdowns and earned a rare 11.4% of the vote for governor in the general election as a third-party candidate. Libertarians can usually hope for 3% to 4%.
This time around, Rainwater is leaning in hard on the overreach theme. He's only been invited to one gubernatorial panel thus far ― hosted by the Greater Columbus Economic Development Corporation in December ― and positioned himself as most critical of the size of Indiana's state government. Of everyone on stage, he was the only one to criticize the state's READI program, a public-private partnership in which the state has appropriated $500 million to spur economic development, because he says the government is taking too much money from Hoosiers' paychecks.
McCormick, as the lone Democratic hopeful, is trying to appeal to moderate voters who don't buy into the Republican party's recent focus on divisive culture war topics. A former Republican who turned away from the party due to the rise of Trump, McCormick calls those issues a "distraction."
She has yet to appear on stage publicly with the other candidates.
Republicans focus narrowly to find differences
Because of the Republican candidates' baseline similarities, it's become necessary in the public sphere to narrow down to smaller issues on which they can find clear differences.
"They have to do something to say, 'Why am I different from this other person who also shares my label?'" said Elizabeth Bennion, political science professor at IU South Bend.
The LEAP district, the massive new industrial park in Boone County that has become the center of debate about water accessibility in Indiana, is one of those issues. The project was a cornerstone of Chambers' legacy as leader of the IEDC, in which the state is playing a new role as developer of the land, and Chambers stands by it, calling it an example of playing "economic offense."
But all of his opponents, observing the mounting public opposition and skepticism of the IEDC's actions there, have criticized some aspect of the project, from its perceived lack of transparency to the heavy-handed role of the state in developing the land.
Another differentiator is Crouch's headline-grabbing proposal to "axe the tax," which has given her opponents ammunition to critique it as not thought through and even a "gimmick."
And on the subject of qualified immunity — the legal protection police can claim against lawsuits over alleged misconduct — it's the world against Braun.
Doden released an endorsement video from a county sheriff explaining his displeasure with Braun's proposed legislation in 2020 that would have made more stringent the conditions in which police could claim qualified immunity.
Braun caught a lot of flak from his party and Fox News over it at the time and said in 2021 that he opposes any reform on the federal level to qualified immunity.
The senator's campaign, meanwhile, has gone on the offensive against another candidate, coming out with a one-page website targeting Doden's record and his time as IEDC president, calling him "Desperate Eric Doden."
This kind of hyperspecific messaging is likely to continue, but it's difficult to predict what exactly will stick with voters, Bennion said. That can depend on how well the campaigns reach voters.
Big raisers and big spenders
The 2024 primary is almost certain to break records in terms of raising and spending money.
Midway through 2023, Braun proved the most lucrative fundraiser, collecting $2.2 million and ending the period with $4.6 million in his campaign coffers. But two other candidates were not far behind: Doden raised $1.8 million and Crouch $1.1 million, and they both ended the last filing period with nearly $4 million in the bank.
Chambers and Hill entered the race in the second half of the year, so their finances won't be too clear until the next campaign finance reports, which are due Jan. 17. However, Chambers has been raking in large contributions from mega-donors, including several CEOs in Central Indiana, as well as giving himself a $5 million loan.
In terms of reportable large donations, Braun is competitive, too, though his campaign says more of his money comes from grassroots Hoosiers, which will be reflected in the upcoming reports. Hill lags far behind his competitors, with just $20,000 in the bank as of July, plus a handful of large contributions since then.
So far, Braun, Crouch, Chambers and Doden are the biggest spenders, from consultants to communications to six- and seven-figure television ad buys. Doden and Crouch have each made at least two ad buys; Braun and Chambers, at least one each.
McCormick has a hill to climb to mount a serious defense in the general election. She had roughly $170,000 in the bank as of July; John Gregg, the last Democrat to run a close gubernatorial race with a Republican, in 2016, raised and spent nearly $17 million.
Economy is catch-all issue
More narrow issues like LEAP aside, there's one theme that pervades every public appearance and candidate platform: the cost of living.
After a few years of high inflation and out-of-reach housing market conditions, the economy is on the ballot both nationally and at the state level.
Republicans have been in power in Indiana for 20 years, so the Republicans running for the next governorship have to balance the argument for keeping their party in power ― low tax burden, healthy job market, large budget surplus ― against the recognition that Hoosiers are feeling the pinch of inflation.
"Everybody talks about that and how important it is to strengthen and grow the state’s economy, but I think what voters will want to hear is specific plans they have to help," Bennion said. "Why would one candidate be better than the other? Is there one thing you’ll do that I will feel in my pocketbook?"
To that end, candidates have started to carve out their lanes with varying degrees of specificity. Crouch has her "axe the tax" slogan. Doden preaches the small-town main-street approach. Braun says he wants more attention given to the little guy, the small-town, home-grown entrepreneurs. Chambers wants to lure more future-focused high-tech industry to Indiana. Hill calls himself a "free market" person.
Will Donald Trump be a factor?
Trump seems to be the elephant in every room.
He's the de facto leader of the new Republican Party, the frontrunner by a long shot in the presidential race despite his many legal entanglements.
Braun endorsed Trump for president, and Trump then endorsed Braun for Indiana governor. And Trump's record of endorsing winning candidates in contested primaries is still fairly strong, Kondik said.
"Trump’s endorsement is very much worth having in a competitive Republican primary," he said.
Trump's endorsement of Braun, plus his legal uncertainties, leaves other candidates in a tricky spot.
In interviews with IndyStar, Hill is the only Republican gubernatorial candidate other than Braun who said he supports Trump. Others are equivocal, preferring to focus on the race at hand in Indiana.
Nationally, Trump has a persistent loyal following that makes up roughly a third of the GOP party base. But in this governor's race, those who are not likely to get Trump's endorsement may decide it's too risky to pledge total support for him, particularly when it's unclear how Trump will navigate the criminal cases against him.
"You may have more to lose than to gain," Bennion said.
Focusing on Trump also draws more attention to their opponent who has been endorsed by Trump: Braun.
Contact IndyStar state government and politics reporter Kayla Dwyer at [email protected] or follow her on Twitter @kayla_dwyer17.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Many Indiana governor candidates, little time to grab voters' interest