Iowa Poll: Democrats are preferred over Republicans in 2 of 4 congressional districts
? Copyright 2024, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.
With Election Day fast-approaching, likely Iowa voters now prefer a Democrat over a Republican for Congress in two of Iowa’s four congressional districts, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
The poll shows Democrats with an advantage in the 1st and 3rd congressional districts, which have been highly competitive this year, while voters prefer Republican candidates in the 2nd and 4th districts.
All four of Iowa’s congressional seats are held by Republicans.
The poll shows a slight plurality of likely voters statewide prefer a Democrat over a Republican for the U.S. House of Representatives, 45% to 44%.
Another 3% say they would vote for another candidate, 3% say they wouldn’t vote, 4% say they’re not sure or don’t remember and 2% already voted and don’t want to say.
It’s the first time since September 2020 that Democrats have held a statewide lead in the generic congressional ballot.
The poll shows a shift toward Democrats since the previous Iowa Poll in September.
In that survey, Republican candidates were preferred over Democrats statewide, 52% to 44%. A Democrat held a 3-point advantage in southeast Iowa’s 1st District in September, while voters in the three other races favored Republicans.
Now, voters prefer a Democratic candidate by a 16-point margin in the 1st District, where Democrat Christina Bohannan, a law professor and former state representative, is in a rematch with Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks, who is seeking her third term.
Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan in 2022 by nearly 7 percentage points.
A Democratic candidate has a 7-point advantage in central Iowa’s 3rd District, where Democrat Lanon Baccam is challenging Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn.
Likely voters narrowly prefer a Republican by 3 points in the 2nd District, where Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson faces a challenge from Democrat Sarah Corkery.
And a GOP candidate has a 16-point advantage in the 4th District, where Republican U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra faces Democrat Ryan Melton.
Here are the results in each congressional district:
1st District: 53% Democrat, 37% Republican, 3% other, 2% wouldn’t vote, 3% not sure/don’t remember, 2% don’t want to tell.
2nd District: 42% Democrat, 45% Republican, 5% other, 3% wouldn’t vote, 5% not sure/don’t remember, 1% don’t want to tell.
3rd District: 48% Democrat, 41% Republican, 2% other, 4% wouldn’t vote, 3% not sure/don’t remember, 2% don’t want to tell.
4th District: 37% Democrat, 53% Republican, 2% other, 3% wouldn’t vote, 4% not sure/don’t remember, 2% don’t want to tell.
The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters, including those who have already voted and those who say they will definitely vote, was conducted Oct. 28-31 by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points for statewide results.
The maximum margin of error for the congressional districts is plus or minus 7.2 percentage points.
Early voting has been underway in Iowa since Oct. 16. Election Day is Tuesday.
More: How is the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted? We answer your top questions.
A Democrat is preferred by double digits in the 1st District as Christina Bohannan sets sights on Mariannette Miller-Meeks
The 16-point preference for a Democrat in the 1st District is the largest in the district in any Iowa Poll this year.
The results come as Bohannan has put up an aggressive challenge to Miller-Meeks, outraising and out-spending the Republican incumbent. The 1st District includes 20 counties in southeast Iowa, including the cities of Iowa City, Davenport and Keokuk.
Election forecasters rate the race a toss-up.
In September, likely voters in the district narrowly preferred a Democrat over a Republican for Congress, 49% to 46%. In June, 41% supported a Democrat and 53% supported a Republican.
The new poll also shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading 54% to 37% over former President Donald Trump in the 1st District.
More: Miller-Meeks, Bohannan face 'toss-up' House race. What makes their 2024 rematch different?
Alexa Harper, a 24-year-old poll respondent from Coralville, plans to support Bohannan for Congress. Harper, a Democrat who works in human resources at the University of Iowa, said she and her friends have been having a lot of discussions about abortion, which she said is “strongly” influencing her vote for Congress.
“My position is everybody should have their own choice and right,” she said.
Barbara Olson, a 59-year-old poll respondent from Clinton, said she’s voting for Miller-Meeks, who she called “a very common-sense woman.”
“I like her stern view on abortion. I like her stern view on keeping boys out of girls sports,” she said. “I’m a firm believer in God made two genders.”
Olson, a Republican, called herself “a firm believer that abortion is murder,” although she supports exceptions for incest or to save the life of the mother.
We've been the news Iowa depends upon since 1849. Subscribe to help us continue our mission.
A Republican holds a narrow advantage in the 2nd District, where Ashley Hinson faces Sarah Corkery
The 3-point advantage for a Republican in the 2nd District has narrowed from an 8-point GOP lead in September and a 21-point GOP margin in June.
The percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for someone else has risen from 1% in September to 5% in the most recent poll.
No-party candidate Jody Puffett is also on the ballot in the 2nd District and has run to the right of Hinson. In a televised debate between Hinson and Corkery on Iowa PBS, Corkery urged Republicans frustrated with Hinson’s votes to consider Puffett.
The 2nd District encompasses 22 counties in northeast Iowa, including the cities of Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, Cedar Falls and Dubuque.
Hinson is seeking a third term in Congress after serving as a state representative and working as a TV news journalist. Corkery is a small business owner.
Harris is virtually tied with Trump in the 2nd District, 46% to 45%.
Dennis O’Toole, a 37-year-old poll respondent from Cedar Rapids, said he follows the presidential race more closely than Congress. He said immigration and inflation are two important issues for him.
“I guess I just think that Ashley Hinson has done a pretty good job,” said O’Toole, a truck driver and a Republican.
More: Democrats raise, spend more in Iowa's top contested congressional races, new reports show
Sam Peters, a 52-year-old plumber and poll respondent from Gladbrook, said he doesn’t like Trump or Harris and has stopped watching the news so he doesn’t have to hear about politics.
“I don’t think of Ashley Hinson favorably or unfavorably,” said Peters, an independent who already voted for Corkery. “But I just went with the Dems because, I think mainly because of the abortion issue, probably. I do think it’s a woman’s right to choose.”
3rd District swings toward Democrats as Lanon Baccam takes on Zach Nunn
The 7-percentage point lead for a Democratic candidate in the 3rd District shows a swing from the September Iowa Poll, when a Republican candidate was preferred by 8 points.
Baccam, a first-time candidate who has worked for the U.S. Department of Agriculture and on Democratic campaigns, is challenging Nunn, who is seeking a second term in Congress after serving as a state representative and state senator. The race has seen millions spent on television advertisements.
The 3rd District includes 21 counties in central and southern Iowa, including the cities of Des Moines, West Des Moines, Winterset, Osceola and Ottumwa.
Harris holds a 5-point lead over Trump in the 3rd District, 48% to 43%.
Jason Van Der Veer, a 49-year-old poll respondent and project manager from Des Moines, said he doesn’t like how partisan the U.S. House of Representatives has acted under Republican control the past two years.
“Really, if you go back the last four years, both parties have really pushed their agendas,” said Van Der Veer, a registered Democrat. “But I believe the Democrats have more restraint than the Republicans do on their extreme flank. They have better control over their people who are more partisan.”
More: In a divided 3rd District, Democrat Lanon Baccam pitches a return to a more united Iowa
Van Der Veer said he likes Baccam’s military service and said his life story is impressive. Baccam’s parents came to Iowa as refugees from Laos in 1980.
“I like the fact that he’s served this country,” he said. “I like the fact that his family has come here and made a life, and he has taken the opportunities that he’s given and advanced.”
Nunn is also a military veteran and still serves as a colonel in the U.S. Air Force Reserve.
More: Zach Nunn, looking for 2nd term in Iowa's 3rd District, campaigns on immigration, economy
Abortion is also a deciding issue for Van Der Veer. He said he likes Baccam’s stance on the issue. The candidate has advocated restoring Roe v. Wade to federal law.
“I also think about women’s rights,” he said. “I have two stepdaughters, and I believe that they need to make choices based on their situations, and their health care is important.”
Van Der Veer dislikes Nunn’s stance on abortion, saying, “I think he would like to limit people’s choices without regard to their situation.”
Nunn has said he opposes abortion with exceptions for rape, incest and the health of the mother. He said he does not support a federal ban on abortion.
Stephen Hood, a 53-year-old poll respondent from Winterset, said he likes Nunn, except for Nunn’s opposition to abortion.
“I just believe it’s a woman’s right to do what she needs to do to her own body, so I do not believe in that,” he said.
Hood, a Republican who owns a car detail business, said he’s for anything Congress can do to lower the cost of living.
“Inflation, for one, is absolutely horrendous,” he said. “And, I mean, gas prices, basically everything that has to do with the cost of living is just absolutely ridiculous right now. It seems like the Democrats don’t want to do anything about it.”
A Republican candidate maintains an advantage in the 4th District, where Randy Feenstra faces Ryan Melton
Likely voters continue to prefer a Republican candidate in the 4th District, Iowa’s most conservative, where U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra is seeking reelection to a third term.
Democrat Ryan Melton is seeking to oust Feenstra this year after losing by 37 percentage points in 2022.
Still, the poll’s 16-point advantage for a Republican candidate is narrower than the 19-point margin Republicans enjoyed in September and the 25-point margin the GOP held in June.
Trump leads 50% to 41% over Harris in the 4th District.
The district spans 36 counties in western Iowa, including the cities of Ames, Marshalltown, Council Bluffs, Sioux City and Fort Dodge.
Stephen Gruber-Miller covers the Iowa Statehouse and politics for the Register. He can be reached by email at[email protected] or by phone at 515-284-8169. Follow him on Twitter at@sgrubermiller.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Oct. 28-31, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 808 Iowans ages 18 or older who say they will definitely vote or have already voted in the 2024 general election for president and other offices.
Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,038 Iowa adults with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent census data.
Questions based on the sample of 808 Iowa likely voters have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: Likely voters prefer Democrats in 2 of 4 races for Congress