Iowa Poll: Likely voters prefer Republican candidates in 3 of 4 congressional districts
? Copyright 2024, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.
Iowa’s likely voters prefer a Republican candidate over a Democrat in three of the state’s four congressional districts as the November elections approach, the latest Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
Republicans hold a wide, double-digit lead in the 2nd Congressional District, in northeastern Iowa, and the 4th District, in western Iowa, and a slight edge in the 3rd District, which includes Des Moines and south central Iowa.
But a Democratic candidate holds a narrow advantage in the 1st District, in southeast Iowa.
The results come as candidates gear up for a slate of primary elections in June and then the November general election.
In 2022, Republicans delivered a red wave of results in Iowa, sending a full slate of Republicans to Congress for the first time in decades.
Now, Democrats are hoping to wrest back some measure of influence in what could be an unpredictable election year.
Former Republican President Donald Trump, who is facing dozens of felony charges across four criminal cases, is again challenging Democratic President Joe Biden, who remains deeply unpopular in Iowa, at the top of the ticket — potentially creating unusual ripple effects for candidates running down the ballot.
Overall, Iowa’s likely voters say they’d prefer a Republican congressional candidate to a Democrat by a 17-percentage point margin, 54% to 37%.
In each of the congressional districts, the results are:
1st District: 45% Republican, 49% Democrat
2nd District: 61% Republican, 33% Democrat
3rd District: 47% Republican, 44% Democrat
4th District: 63% Republican, 24% Democrat
This will be the second time Iowans will cast votes for candidates using the current congressional maps, which were redrawn in the redistricting process in 2020.
Selzer & Co. conducted the poll of 804 Iowa adults from Feb. 25-28, and it has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The questions of 640 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
For the congressional districts, the margin of error ranges from plus or minus 6.7 to 7.1 percentage points.
Competitive races could materialize in Iowa’s 1st and 3rd districts
Competitive races could be brewing in the 1st District, which includes Davenport, and the 3rd District, which includes Des Moines.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified both seats for its first wave of endorsements in the group’s “Red to Blue” program targeting key pickup opportunities.
Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn won the 3rd District by less than a percentage point in 2022. The Iowa Poll gives a Republican candidate a 3-point lead.
Elections analysts have identified the 3rd District as Democrats’ best pickup opportunity in Iowa, saying it is not a true “tossup” race, but it “leans Republican.”
Two Democrats — Lanon Baccam, a former U.S. Department of Agriculture official, and Melissa Vine, a nonprofit leader and small business owner — are seeking their party’s nomination for a chance to take on Nunn in November.
Bruce Heilman, a 74-year-old poll respondent from Urbandale who agreed to a follow-up interview, said he plans to vote for the Republican candidate.
“Early on — from when I started voting for maybe 15, 20 years — I really studied each candidate, and I don't think I voted a straight-party ticket ever in major elections,” he said. “I really did try and choose the person whose message resonated with me. And then that started to change.”
Heilman, a Republican, said that beginning with the Bill Clinton administration in the 1990s, he’s seen a two-tiered system of justice that he believes unfairly targets conservatives.
Today, he’s worried about transgender athletes competing in women’s sports, and he questions whether U.S. elections are being run fairly.
He researched Nunn before voting for him in 2022, and he thinks Nunn has voted reliably with Republicans throughout his first term.
“To me, it's become pretty much a black and white issue,” he said. “I have been voting straight party ticket for some time now. Probably at least six or eight years as things, I think, in my opinion, have just continued to go over the cliff.”
Analysts have pushed the 1st District, which Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks won by nearly 7 points in 2022, into the “likely Republican” category, arguing it will be harder for Democrats to flip.
But the Iowa Poll suggests the 1st District could also be competitive for Democrats.
There, the poll shows that likely voters prefer a Democratic candidate by 4 percentage points — which would be a big swing from 2022.
Democratic candidate Christina Bohannan, an Iowa City law professor and former state legislator who also challenged Miller-Meeks in 2022, raised more money in the most recently reported fundraising quarter than the incumbent. She has nearly as much money in the bank: about $1.12 million compared with Miller-Meeks’ $1.6 million.
Neola Soto, a 76-year-old poll respondent from Davenport, said she doesn’t know much about the Democratic candidate running, but she knows she doesn’t like Miller-Meeks.
“She appears arrogant,” Soto said. “She appears that she knows everything. And there seems to be no question marks in her life. And no, 'What do you think?' in her life. She just is, and you can take it or leave it.”
Like Heilman, Soto used to put a lot of energy into deciphering the best candidate for the job, regardless of party affiliation. But now, she plans to defer to whichever candidates are running as Democrats.
“My heart and my mind are independent, but I am voting a straight ticket,” she said. “I don't see a Republican out there that I can vote for.”
Republicans lead big in Iowa’s 2nd and 4th districts
Republican U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra won the dark red 4th Congressional District by 37 percentage points in 2022. The poll puts a Republican candidate’s current advantage at a similar margin: 39 percentage points.
And the poll shows that the 2nd District, which Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson won by about 8 percentage points in 2022, favors a Republican candidate by 28 percentage points. The district includes Cedar Rapids.
The lead by a generic congressional Republican in the 4th and 2nd districts is stronger than Trump’s lead over Biden in those same districts, the poll shows.
In the 2nd District, a Republican congressional candidate leads a Democratic candidate by 28 points, whereas Trump leads Biden by 23 points.
And in the 4th District, a Republican lead by 39 points, whereas Trump leads by 30 points.
Editor's note: A previously published version of this story incorrectly stated when Rep. Zach Nunn was elected to Congress. He was elected in 2022.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She is also covering the 2024 presidential race for USA TODAY as a senior national campaign correspondent. Reach her at [email protected] or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted Feb. 25-28, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 804 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.
Questions based on the sample of 804 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Iowa Poll: GOP candidates preferred in 3 of 4 Iowa congressional races