JD Vance is now the MAGA heir-apparent. Does that make him the front-runner for 2028?

MILWAUKEE — With his ascension to the 2024 presidential ticket as Donald Trump’s running mate, U.S. Sen. JD Vance has vaulted into the role of heir-apparent of the MAGA movement and become an instant White House contender for 2028.

Donald Trump Jr. said the nomination means there’s “a very high chance” Vance could become president in 2028 if he and Trump win in November.

“(Vance is) the one guy in that movement that’s a current politician that’s out there that actually, really speaks sort of to the ‘America First’ people,” he said at an event hosted by Axios Tuesday. “It isn’t like we’ll be right back to the establishment. … That’s where our base is. That’s where the Republican Party is.”

It’s a remarkable twist of fate for the former Trump critic who only came into politics in 2022.

But even as the move propels Vance to the forefront of conversations about the party's future, he is far from a lock for a presidential nomination of his own, political observers say.

Fifteen vice presidents have gone on to become president, while eight ascended upon the death of the president. Just a handful were elected to the position in their own right.

“JD Vance has certainly launched himself into a place of national prominence,” said Republican Party of Iowa Chair Jeff Kaufmann, who oversees Republicans’ consequential first-in-the-nation nominating contest every four years in the Hawkeye State. “If he becomes our next vice president, and I believe he will, he is in a premium spot of national leadership. But in 2028, I think we will have a robust caucus.”

Vance will have a massive platform through the remainder of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where he was formally nominated to the ticket Monday.

But the event is also a major showcase of up-and-coming leaders from around the country who could make their own arguments to succeed Trump as the party’s standard bearer in 2028.

More: 2028 presidential hopefuls seek to make their mark at Republican National Convention

Political benefits — and drawbacks — of being the VP nominee

The announcement of Vance as Trump’s running mate animated and energized convention delegates from around the country, many of whom lined up outside a Fox News studio Monday night to try to catch a glimpse of him emerging.

And the senator is already set to join Trump at a rally in swing-state Michigan this weekend — the first of many such rallies that are expected to fill the coming months ahead of the November election.

“He's going to be traveling to states — the battleground states and many other states over the next four months, for sure,” Republican political operative Chip Saltsman said. “He's certainly going to meet a lot of new donors and all that kind of stuff around the country. So it just really elevates JD Vance into a national leader, as opposed to a senator from Ohio who's a great speaker and smart guy.”

But Saltsman, who was a senior adviser to former Vice President Mike Pence’s 2024 presidential primary campaign, knows that a VP post doesn’t always pave the way for a successful independent presidential run.

Pence was a loyal second-in-command to Trump until he broke with the former president over the certification of the 2020 election — a decision that prompted some of Trump's supporters to call for Pence to be hanged as they marched on the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.

Pence became a pariah for some members of the party — ostracized both by those who felt he didn't do enough to stand by Trump and by those who felt he was too deeply intertwined with him. Pence failed to gain traction as a candidate and ended his presidential bid well before the first nominating contest.

Still, Saltsman said, he doesn’t believe there are pitfalls unique to serving as Trump’s vice president.

But generally, vice presidents are required to cede the limelight and their own vision for the country in favor of the president’s, he and others said.

“The biggest problem for him is that he would have to take a backseat to President Trump,” said Lara Brown, author of, “Jockeying for the American Presidency: The Political Opportunism of Aspirants.”

She said it’s also true that sometimes the political winds shift well before a vice president or vice presidential candidate ever gets the chance to forge their own path.

“You know, Paul Ryan was an up-and-coming member of the House, somebody with deep policy knowledge,” she said. “I think there was every expectation that he would have a very long political career. And certainly, I think Paul Ryan represented the future of the Republican Party in 2012 when Mitt Romney selected him (as his running mate). I don't think anyone believed that in 2016 the Republican Party would take such a populist turn.”

The best thing Vance can do to boost his stature within the party is to amplify and execute Trump’s message, Saltsman said. That can help Vance endear himself to the MAGA base and give him “a head start” on 2028.

“But it's not the only thing that matters,” he said. “Because there's lots of people that are going to be helping amplify and execute that message, everybody from on the Senate floor to members of the House to governors out in their own states doing their own thing.”

JD Vance isn’t the only Republican who could lay claim to a post-Trump party

Other could-be candidates are also laying the kind of groundwork that might ultimately lead to a White House run.

On Tuesday, entrepreneur and 2024 primary candidate Vivek Ramaswamy spoke with the Iowa delegation to the RNC. He greeted the group warmly after holding more public events in the state than any other 2024 contender.

“I feel like we built a family in Iowa,” he said during his speech, stopping afterward for hugs and photos with Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds and the state’s Republican elected officials.

U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt, who has made repeated visits to Iowa over the past two years, also spoke to the group Tuesday. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is scheduled to join them Wednesday. And Kaufmann plans a private sit-down with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin this week.

Prominent speakers at the convention include U.S. Sens. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, who considered a run in 2024, and Tim Scott of South Carolina, who did run. Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee-Sanders, former U.N. Ambassador and 2024 contender Nikki Haley, Ramaswamy and DeSantis rounded out the second night of speeches.

“Almost always it takes really about four to eight years to win the party's nomination and to win the presidency,” Brown said.

She pointed to then state Senate candidate Barack Obama’s 2004 speech to the Democratic National Convention in Boston that helped propel him into the national conversation.

“It was literally that night and that speech where he essentially laid down the marker for any delegate or party insider that was not sold on a Hillary Clinton candidacy (in 2008) that he should be the one they look to,” Brown said. “And that's where I would actually argue that, in 2004, John Edwards lost the nomination.”

She said these moments of opportunity, well before politicians become candidates, can help cement their place in the minds of voters.

“That's why I would say JD Vance's speech, I do think is going to be very important,” she said.

Vance is expected to address the convention Wednesday.

In Iowa, party chair Kaufmann said Republicans have been clamoring to hear from Vance well before he was put on any vice-presidential short lists, and he said his team has an open invitation to swing by.

Iowa Republicans said Tuesday after Trump’s announcement of Vance that they believe the Ohioan will be well received in their home state as the party looks to the future.

“I think he resonates very well in Iowa,” said U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn, who represents Iowa’s Third Congressional District. “I mean, this is the reality, we get the opportunity not only to showcase what Trump has brought, but I think he's ushering in a new chapter. This is one of the reasons why we're in Milwaukee. We literally get to help write the page of what's going to be the future of America.

David Barker, a well-known Iowa Republican and convention delegate, said Tuesday that he thinks Vance’s youth and energy are appealing qualities in a candidate of any kind.

“Iowans are always interested in presidential politics,” he said. “So I don't think it's too early at all” to start talking about who can step up to lead in 2028.

USA TODAY reporter Zac Anderson contributed to this report.

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. She is also covering the 2024 presidential race for USA TODAY as a senior national campaign correspondent. Reach her at [email protected] or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: JD Vance is now the MAGA heir-apparent and a favorite for 2028