Josh Shapiro is rewriting the playbook. Will he deliver a win in Pennsylvania for Harris?

PHILADELPHIA ― The crowd was electric. Its roar intoxicating. It was almost as if Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro had not been passed over by Vice President Kamala Harris to join her ticket hours earlier.

Shapiro stepped up to the microphone, donning his signature campaign uniform – a navy blue blazer with an American flag pin on its lapel, crisp white button down sans tie and black dress sneakers. He delivered one of the fiercest speeches of his career and pledged to work his tail off to elect Harris.

Harris is a friend of two decades, he said. A former state attorney general like him, she’s courtroom tough, he added, and ready to face former Republican President Donald Trump.

“Let me tell you something. I ain’t going back. I am not going back. I am not. And neither do you want to go back,” Shapiro shouted at a fevered crowd as it repeated the line that has become Harris’ unofficial campaign slogan.

He sounded like a presidential candidate.

Shapiro had sealed the deal on his ascent to governor in the same auditorium, Temple University’s Liacouras Center, two years earlier during a joint appearance between President Joe Biden and former President Barack Obama.

He would go on to trounce his election-denying opponent, Republican Doug Mastriano, by nearly 15 points. He won north of 3 million votes in that election, more than any gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania history.

To notch the victory, Shapiro rewrote the Democratic Party’s playbook in the battleground state that has decided the past two presidential elections. He won over rural voters in staunchly Republican areas and defeated his opponent in swing counties that Biden lost in 2020, a year that Shapiro was also on the ballot seeking reelection to attorney general.

Democrats are hoping Shapiro, 51, can make lightning strike again. This time for Harris, who desperately needs a victory in Pennsylvania to win the November election. Harris’ campaign is relying on Shapiro to help her run up the score in his home state, and elsewhere, with malcontent moderates, exasperated suburban women and rebellious Republicans.

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Her honeymoon period over and the white working-class voters who were the backbone of the Biden coalition up for grabs, Harris has been struggling to convince skeptical independents to give her centrist economic vision and populist tax policy a chance.

“He needs to help her speak to industrial Pennsylvania,” said former Republican Rep. Charlie Dent, a Biden backer who endorsed Shapiro for governor but is on the fence about voting for Harris.

Shapiro has made a reputation for himself as someone who’s willing to compromise to get stuff done. He brokered a deal as a Pennsylvania state representative that put a Republican in charge as speaker of the House. He blew the lid off the Catholic priest sexual abuse scandal as attorney general and forcefully defended Pennsylvania after Trump made false claims about his electoral loss to Biden.

Shapiro spoke with humanity after a gunman injured Trump and killed one of his supporters at a rally in Butler, calling the family of Corey Comperatore before he delivered public remarks.

A family man. A person of faith. A hard worker. “He communicates extremely well. He radiates leadership ability, comes off as a confident, but not ridiculously conceited, but an intelligent guy who knows his stuff,” said former Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell. “He's almost the picture perfect candidate.”

Almost.

Shapiro was young and ambitious, and he was going places. But his strong connection to his Jewish identity and how it informed his views on Israel became prominent issues in the competition to become Harris’ running mate.

There was also his support for school vouchers, a draw for some Republicans but an impediment for progressives.

Shapiro would not be well-suited for the vice presidency, his detractors contended. Harris went a different way. Shapiro would be free to forge his own political course. It ran through Pennsylvania.

Pennsylvania becomes the national bellwether

For decades, Ohio had been the nation’s bellwether. Now, it was up to the Keystone State. Trump won Pennsylvania in a 2016 upset; four years later, the manufacturing-heavy state elected Biden.

“I’m feeling the stress of the whole system being on us, constantly getting calls,” said Rose Huber, 50, an IT professional and school board officer from Upper Moreland Township in Montgomery County, during a Shapiro-headlined Harris campaign event.

Like many of the states that make up the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania has been experiencing a demographic shift: its major cities deep blue, its rural areas ruby red, its population less white and its northeastern communities increasingly Hispanic.

From the western suburbs of Pittsburgh came the brash senator, John Fetterman; from the eastern suburbs of Philadelphia, the more polished governor, Shapiro.

Shapiro was born in Kansas City, Missouri. But the family quickly moved to Montgomery County in Pennsylvania. He would remain there until he left for college, attending the University of Rochester in New York. He returned to the area after a stint working at the Israeli embassy and in a handful of congressional offices in Washington.

Soon, he was on the ballot, rising quickly in his party. He went from the Pennsylvania legislature to the Montgomery County government to the attorney general’s office to the governor’s mansion within two decades.

He has a knack for working across the aisle. “He's into job creation, doing serious economic development, working with the business community, while being socially moderate and sensible,” Dent, the former GOP congressman from Allentown, said.

Shapiro said he achieved the victories by practicing the kind of politics that brings people together.

“The way you win in Pennsylvania is putting in the hard work, clearly articulating your views and your values,” he said.

Along the way, he made a powerful ally. He endorsed Obama in 2007 during the then-Illinois senator’s presidential primary fight with Hillary Clinton.

Obama later appointed Shapiro to a task force that helped shape federal health care reform legislation. Obama provided a rare primary endorsement to Shapiro during his attorney general bid.

“He has always been one of the president’s top people in Pennsylvania that we relied on for counsel and guidance over the years,” said Eric Schultz, a senior Obama adviser.

Shapiro’s speaking style and mannerism have drawn comparisons to Obama’s. Trump running mate JD Vance mocked it as a “bad impression” of the former president.

If the two sound alike at times, it’s because Shapiro regularly spends his Sundays in pews of the Black church, says his close friend Marshall Mitchell, pastor of Salem Baptist Church in Abington.

Shapiro is white and Jewish. He wears glasses and slicks back his hair. But like Obama, he has a distinct ability to work up a crowd.

“He's super charismatic,” said Caroline Bradley, 46, a marketing consultant from Malvern who quit the Republican Party in 2016 and is volunteering for Harris.

In the final days of Shapiro’s 2022 campaign for governor, Obama showed up in Pennsylvania with Biden. It was their only joint appearance that election cycle. The former president said Shapiro “had my back.” The current one called Shapiro courageous.

Shapiro had outperformed him two years earlier to become the highest vote getter in Pennsylvania. He did better than Biden in Trump-won Beaver County, to the west of Pittsburgh, and conservative Cambria, east of the city and home to Johnstown.

He beat his opponent in Luzerne. Biden lost the county, where Wilkes-Barre is located, by more than 22,000 votes.

Shapiro was initially a Harris supporter, but the former California AG quit the Democratic primary in 2019 before any voters were cast. He eventually endorsed Biden, a native of Scranton.

When it was time for reelection, Biden put Shapiro on his surrogate list.

A week before Biden dropped out, Shapiro made his way with Harris through a maze of merchants at the Reading Terminal Market, a mainstay of downtown Philadelphia.

Placing her hand on his shoulder, Harris said the Pennsylvania governor “has been a great partner to the president and me.” She invited Shapiro to address reporters.

He’d had coffee with Biden the week before in Harrisburg. Now, he was having pad thai with Harris in Philadelphia.

“She’s an outstanding vice president,” he said. “I couldn’t be more proud to support the Biden-Harris ticket.”

A deeply personal decision for Harris – and for Shapiro

Biden was out. Harris was in. Shapiro’s name was immediately floated as a potential VP pick.

The former prosecutors had met nearly 20 years prior when they were selected for the same class of fellows in a bipartisan leadership program. She was the San Francisco district attorney; he was a fresh-faced state representative.

“We immediately bonded,” Shapiro said in an interview.

They read books and talked about leadership. “We traveled all around the country, in an opportunity to both forge alliances and more understanding with one another and to strengthen our leadership skills,” he said.

As they rose through the ranks in their respective states, Shapiro said, “We maintained a close relationship.”

Their careers intersected again. It seemed Shapiro could become Harris’ running mate. His friends campaigned publicly for him.

But his refusal to call for a cease-fire, criticisms of young, pro-Palestinian protesters and the pressure he put on a Pennsylvania Ivy League university to break up a student encampment worked against him at a time of sharp division within the Democratic Party over the Israel-Hamas war.

Harris’ other potential running mates were supportive of Israel. Yet, the focus was on Shapiro, a proud Jew. It veered into territory that some deemed antisemitic.

Old complaints recirculated, too. He was an unpopular choice in certain progressive circles. His support for school vouchers ruffled teachers unions and members of the labor community. Concerns about the way he handled a sexual harassment allegation involving a former staffer also resurfaced.

Fetterman had bad blood with Shapiro over clashes they'd had on the state’s parole board. (Fetterman favored commutations; Shapiro voted more often for denials). The senator made sure Harris’ team knew, according to two sources familiar with the situation.

The selection process had solidified Shapiro’s status as a star. But it had also turned him into a target. The criticisms persisted as Shapiro settled into his new role as one of the party’s most eligible future candidates for higher office.

He’s out for himself, and he’s disloyal, two Democrats who’d known him for more than decade told USA TODAY. They brought up his decision in 2011 to run against his former mentor for office. They also made Harris’ vetting team aware of their reservations.

“Everybody has pros and cons. You have a record, and some people are happy with it, and some people aren’t,” said Philadelphia Democratic Party Chairman Bob Brady, a friend of Shapiro’s who pushed for him to become Harris’ running mate. “He would have been a great choice, would have done a great job.”

Shapiro repeatedly described it as a “deeply personal decision” for Harris and for himself. A source familiar said Shapiro had reservations about leaving Pennsylvania that he conveyed to Harris' team.

He declined in an interview to speak about his private conversations with Harris. “We had a really good and honest dialogue,” he said, “and I think she made an outstanding pick in Tim Walz.”

Two sources familiar with the conversation that took place put it in starker terms: It was evident from Shapiro’s vetting interview that it would be a bad match. Shapiro tried to negotiate a policy portfolio for himself, and there were fears inside Harris’ camp he would be more focused as vice president on furthering his own political ambitions than supporting hers.

Shapiro has main character energy, his allies acknowledged. Walz was a better fit for Harris.

“I thought he was the obvious choice, but she obviously went in a different direction,” Dent said of Shapiro. “Shapiro was a better number one guy than a number two, and I think his personality would be better suited for the top spot.”

Shapiro’s friends argue that it may have worked out better that he wasn’t on the ticket. He could direct all his attention to Pennsylvania, help Harris win the state and mount a bid in four to eight years on his own record of accomplishments.

“Now he's in the unusual place where the presidency must roll through Pennsylvania, and he is in a place with his numbers, where he can help to deliver it for her,” Mitchell said.

The center of the political universe

Shapiro’s motto is “GSD.” He wins elections and gets s--t done for his state, he says. He dusted off his winning playbook to show Harris how.

He played the role of adviser, telling Harris not to ignore rural counties, where she could cut into Trump’s margins.

“This may be the only thing that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump agree on – is that you’ve got to win Pennsylvania,” Shapiro said.

Harris took his advice. She went to Beaver County on a bus tour on the eve of the Democratic National Convention. She visited Johnstown and Wilkes-Barre during a September swing.

She understands the importance of showing up in rural areas and parts of the state that are often overlooked, Shapiro said of her visits to Trump-won counties and towns outside of Pittsburgh.

“She’s going to keep on coming back and understands the pivotal role that Pennsylvania plays,” he told reporters after a campaign event in Philadelphia in September.

Harris has not been able to spend much time in the state over the past three weeks. It has been up to Shapiro and Harris' other surrogates to run up the score.

“The set of states that will determine this race is limited, and with Pennsylvania at the top of that list, I don't believe we have a bigger asset to winning that state than Josh Shapiro,” said Schultz, the Obama adviser.

Over the summer, Shapiro campaigned for her in Carlisle in Cumberland County – an area of central Pennsylvania near Harrisburg that he lost in 2020 but won handily in 2022. Last Thursday, Shapiro spoke at an Obama-headlined rally in support of Harris in Pittsburgh.

The vice president’s last trip to Pennsylvania was Sept. 25. She was set to join Walz on a bus tour in early October of central Pennsylvania but canceled her appearance as the administration grappled with the fallout of Hurricane Helene. Walz went without her.

Harris will make her first visit to Erie, a bellwether county in the northwest corner of the state, on Monday. It will be her 10th visit to Pennsylvania since her campaign launch.

Her strategy carries risks. Philadelphia and its four collar counties accounted for more than 40% of Biden’s votes in Pennsylvania four years ago. She has not been to the area since mid-September.

Polls show a statistical tie in Pennsylvania, which Trump won by roughly 44,000 votes in 2016. Biden won by more than 80,000 votes in 2020.

Trump has been dragging Harris as an out-of-touch, California liberal as he tries to win back the working-class voters he lost four years ago.

Harris does significantly better than Trump in polling on abortion rights. But the former Republican president scores higher on the economy and immigration.

The two issues ranked highest as voting issues in Pennsylvania, according to a recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll.

The more that Harris talks about her economic policies, including her plans to help small businesses and cap child care costs, the better she will fare, Shapiro said.

“As the days continue to go by in this campaign, more and more people hear about her plans, and frankly, the lack of any sort of coherent plan from Donald Trump, they'll see that there is a clear contrast here, and they're going to do better under Kamala Harris,” he added.

He held up his own record of tax-cutting as a model for Harris’ economic platform.

More popular than Taylor Swift

Shapiro’s approval rating in Pennsylvania is higher than Harris’. Or Trump’s. He’s even better liked than Taylor Swift, who was born in Reading.

In a USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll taken in mid-September, just after the presidential debate, Harris had a 49% approval rating in Pennsylvania. Trump was at 43%. Shapiro was the most liked politician at 57%.

“I am a Kamala fan. I am on board. I think she’s amazing,” said Bradley, the Harris volunteer from Chester County. “I think Josh Shapiro’s better.”

He was one of the hottest speakers on the Democratic convention's breakfast circuit in August. Over the course of four days, Shapiro hit up 10 delegations. His stops included South Carolina, New Hampshire and Nevada – the early presidential primary states.

Last month, he visited Wisconsin, where he campaigned for Sen. Tammy Baldwin, and North Carolina, where he stumped for gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein and did a separate event for Harris. On Sunday, he visited Georgia. All three are battlegrounds Harris’ campaign is trying to win.

Shapiro is also planning an Oct. 30 trip to New Hampshire, which has one of the top governor’s races of the cycle.

The connection could prove important if Harris ends up losing the general election.

“What doors open between now and 2028, I'll leave that for Josh to figure out. But Josh's talent is capable of anything he wants to do, of course, including president,” said Rep. Madeleine Dean, a mentee of Shapiro who replaced him in the statehouse.

And if Harris wins? “He's got plenty of staying power,” Dean said.

Several Democrats suggest that in a Harris administration, Shapiro could serve as attorney general. His allies say they cannot see him leaving the state. He’s been in office less than two years and is expected to run for a second term.

“He's a rare political animal,” Mitchell said. “I think of him as a basketball player, and he's a guy who, clearly, by the end of his career, will be regarded as one of the GOATs.”

Shapiro said he likes being in the arena. “And I always want to be in the arena in a place where I can have the most impact,” he said.

For now, he says that’s helping Harris get elected and serving as Pennsylvania’s governor.

And getting stuff done.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Kamala Harris needs to win Pennsylvania. Can Josh Shapiro deliver?