Kari Lake's chances of winning Arizona seem dimmer by the day

Once upon a time (read: 2022), Kari Lake called abortion the “ultimate sin” and supported a return of a 19th century law that turned doctors into felons. These days, she’s assuring voters that she would not vote for a national ban on abortion.

Once upon a time (read: 2018), Lake lauded the late Sen. John McCain as “a war hero, icon and a force to be reckoned with.” Four years later, she told his supporters to “get the hell out” of one of her campaign events and upon winning the GOP primary proclaimed, “we drove a stake through the heart of the McCain machine.” These days, she assures voters that she was just joking.

Once upon a time (read: January), Lake welcomed the opportunity to prove her oft-repeated claim that Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer sabotaged the 2022 election, saying she would battle Richer’s defamation lawsuit with everything she had because nothing less than America was at risk should she lose. Last week, she gave up without a fight.

Naturally, Lake is spinning last week’s bombshell capitulation, saying she doesn’t want “to legitimize this perversion of our legal system.”

But it all leads me to wonder. What exactly is it that Kari Lake stands for?

Kari Lake still has little moderate support

Lake’s plan seems to be to rage her way into the U.S. Senate, but thus far it doesn’t seem as if the deep pockets within the GOP are convinced that’s a winning campaign strategy.

And last week’s shot-in-the-foot-heard-round-the-world? Disastrous.

“Not sure what her path is forward — martyrdom in pursuit of a misunderstanding of what is free speech,” longtime Republican political consultant Chuck Coughlin told me. “I really don’t see a path or any money coming her way. Much more promising opportunities elsewhere: Montana, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Wisconsin.”

Lake has scooped up endorsements from fully half of the Republicans in the Senate. She’s also snagged the nod of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which evidently is under the incredible impression that she has moved on from her election conspiracy schtick.

But where are the endorsements from former Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, former Sen. Jon Kyl and Karrin Taylor Robson, who would be governor today had she won the 2022 GOP primary?

Where is the support from establishment Republicans within Arizona’s GOP — the people who could confer legitimacy with those all-important moderate Republican and independent voters who will decide this election in November?

And where is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell?

Big donors aren't lining up to support her

Once upon a time (read: October 2022), Lake supported Sen. Ted Cruz to replace “the old bat,” as she called McConnell. So I’m guessing a fat check might not be forthcoming from his flush Senate Leadership Fund anytime soon.

As Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego takes to the airways and revs up his fundraising in the wake of Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s departure from the race, Lake is reduced to running down to Mar-a-Lago to solicit donations from the cosmetic surgery crowd while standing beside such important leading lights as Roseanne Barr.

Lake has got to be left wondering when her financial ship will come in.

“That is the $40 million question,” Republican consultant Barrett Marson told me. “What if that Brinks truck never pulls up? What if the big money groups decide their piles of cash are better spent in Michigan? Or Ohio? Or Nevada? They have a lot of choices.

“And Kari Lake looks increasingly like she isn’t a candidate that can win.”

Kari Lake may taunt: Richer into suing her again

Possibly because she isn’t a candidate who seems to really stand for much, other than outrage.

Ruben Gallego is a dyed-in-the-wool liberal who shouldn’t have a prayer of winning a statewide election in Arizona. But Gallego doesn’t bring with him a tiresome parade of clown cars packed to the gills with burning bridges, secret recordings and a mountain of melodrama.

Perhaps Gallego’s best chance lies in the fact that this race ultimately won’t wind up to matter all that much.

Arizona may not be a key race for Senate

Simply put, Republicans don’t need Arizona to win the Senate. Moderate Republicans and right leaning independents don’t have to hold their nose and vote for Kari Lake in order to “save America,” as we are warned most every hour, on the hour.

Democrats face an uphill battle to hang onto their razor-thin control of the Senate as they defend 22 incumbent seats, many in GOP-leaning states.

The Republican Party already has been blessed with a surefire pickup in ruby red West Virginia where Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin is retiring.

Meanwhile, Republicans have set their sights on knocking off Democratic senators in Ohio and Montana, both states that Trump won in 2020. Then there are those other potentially winnable races that come without the Lake melodrama.

If Arizona Republican voters were really serious about retaking the Senate seat they lost in 2018, they’d take a good look at Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb. He’s basically Kari Lake without the drama, though there is one other difference.

He could actually win.

Reach Roberts at [email protected]. Follow her on X, formerly Twitter, at @LaurieRoberts or on Threads at laurierobertsaz.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Kari Lake may not win the Senate. And if she loses, it may not matter