What to know about the battle to control the next US Congress
WASHINGTON – The final matchups in the 2024 general election for control of the U.S. House and Senate are now complete after months of primaries concluded on Tuesday, laying the groundwork for a contentious battle between Democrats and Republicans who hope to give the next president room to advance their agenda.
In the Senate, Democrats over the next eight weeks will be playing defense. Sen. Joe Manchin's retirement in West Virginia practically guarantees Republicans will pick up an additional seat there, meaning the GOP only needs one more win in November to retake control of the chamber as long as they don't suffer an upset anywhere else – and even if Kamala Harris wins the White House. Republicans have their sights set on Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., but other states also could produce potential victories too.
In the House, more than three dozen competitive races will determine who will be in charge come next year. It's anybody's game – 24 districts considered "toss-ups" by the non-partisan Cook Political Report are split almost evenly between seats held currently by the Republicans and the Democrats. Republicans currently control the chamber by a very narrow margin.
Both parties offer starkly different visions for the country's future, and whichever comes out on top in the two chambers of Congress will help determine whether Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump or Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, have a chance at accomplishing their goals should they win the White House.
Here's what you need to know about the races to control Capitol Hill and what it could mean for you.
Primary season shakeups
It's the competitive races that will influence control over the House and Senate. But some significant races have essentially been decided.
In House districts that are less competitive – think deeply Republican or Democratic districts – the real fight came during the primaries, when candidates from the same party duked it out and are now all but assured victory in the November general election.
There have been upsets on both sides. A couple of progressive Democratic incumbents who emerged as vocal critics of Israel in its war against Hamas were unseated by other Democrats who were supported by pro-Israel groups, such as Reps. Jamal Bowman, D-N.Y. and Cori Bush, D-Mo. Other members of the progressive "squad," like Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-M.N., and Summer Lee, D-Pa., survived those challenges.
On the Republican side, Trump illustrated his continued hold over the party as most of his endorsees won their contested primaries, such as South Carolina GOP Reps. Nancy Mace and William Timmons.
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy also organized a multimillion dollar campaign to unseat the eight GOP members who voted to kick him out of the speakership last year. That was met with limited success: Only Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., was toppled – but that may have had more to do with Trump endorsing his primary opponent in retribution for Good's support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in the Republican presidential primaries.
Senate races to watch
Control of the Senate is likely to come down to three highly-competitive races. Given the GOP is almost guaranteed to win in West Virginia, Republicans need to win one more seat to retake control of the chamber, or just win the White House and Trump’s vice president, JD Vance, becomes the tie-breaking vote next year.
Tester, a three-term incumbent senator from Montana, is in a heated battle with business owner Tim Sheehy. He’s the best bet for Republicans to retake the Senate because Montana is an otherwise deep-red state – voters there chose Trump by more than 16 percentage points in 2020.
Another three-term incumbent, Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, aims to fend off Bernie Moreno, a Republican businessman who owns a network of car dealerships, to keep his seat in a state that Trump won by 8 percentage points in 2020.
And Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., is battling former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., for an open seat left by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow in the Great Lakes state. Both have a national security background that appeals to voters in the swing state, which chose Biden in 2020 by 2.8 percentage points.
Democratic Sens. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin and Jacky Rosen of Nevada are also facing tough challenges this cycle. If Republicans have a good year overall, their seats are in jeopardy. A similarly-competitive open seat in Arizona pits Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., against former TV news anchor Kari Lake.
House races to watch
Control of the House typically aligns with that of the White House, which is a neck-and-neck race. Voters are less likely to know individual House candidates and instead vote along party lines – so whichever side turns out more members of their party to vote for president usually has a good chance of winning the House majority.
Democrats currently hold five seats won by Trump in 2020, while Republicans hold 17 won by Biden. The two big battlegrounds for the House are in California and New York, where Republicans in Biden-won districts are a target for Democrats.
In California, GOP Rep. Mike Garcia faces Democrat George Whitesides in the 27th District, which includes Simi Valley; Rep. John Duarte faces Democrat Adam Gray in the Modesto-based 13th District; Rep. David Valadao faces Democrat Rudy Salas in the 22nd District, which covers Bakersfield; Rep. Ken Calvert faces Democrat Will Rollins in the Corona-based 41st District; and Rep. Michelle Steel faces Democrat Derek Tran in the Huntington Beach-based 45th District.
In New York, Republican Rep. Brandon Williams faces Democratic New York state Sen. John Mannion in the 22nd District that includes Syracuse and Utica; Rep. Mike Lawler faces former Democratic Rep. Mondaire Jones in the Pearl River-based 17th District; Rep. Marc Molinaro faces Democratic attorney Josh Riley in the Binghamton-based 19th District; and Rep. Anthony D’Esposito faces Democrat Laura Gillen in the 4th District, which includes Garden City.
Democrats are targeting Republican incumbents in other key Biden-won districts in New Jersey, Oregon, Arizona, Nebraska, Pennsylvania and Virginia.
Democrats that hold House districts won by Trump in 2020 are spread across the country. Rep. Marcy Kaptur, D-Ohio, faces a young state House member, Derek Martin, in the 9th Congressional District, which includes Cleveland; Rep. Jared Golden faces Republican Austin Theriault in Maine’s 2nd District, which includes Bangor and Lewiston; Rep. Matt Cartwright faces Republican Rob Bresnahan Jr. in Pennsylvania’s 8th District, which includes Hazelton and Hawley; Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces Republican Joe Kent in Washington’s Vancouver-based 3rd District; and Rep. Mary Peltola faces Republican Nicholas Begich for Alaska’s sole House seat.
Republicans are also going after Democrats in other vulnerable districts in Colorado, Michigan, North Carolina and New Mexico.
Money matters
Money determines how widely each side can spread its message and introduce voters to their preferred candidates – and can be particularly helpful in lesser-known House and Senate races.
In this key metric, Republicans are currently at a disadvantage. Democrats have largely outraised them this cycle, a disparity made worse by a boost in grassroots donations from Democratic voters after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party's campaign funding arm for House races, has raised $228 million this cycle while the National Republican Congressional Committee has raised $173 million, according to federal campaign data compiled by OpenSecrets, a nonprofit research group. On the Senate side, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has raised $154 million and the National Republican Senatorial Committee has brought in $181 million – but has less cash on hand going into the final stretch.
“There are winnable races right now that we may not be able to bring across the finish line because of lack of resources,” NRSC Chair Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., told Fox News last week. “That’s why we’re working very, very hard to make sure we’re ringing that alarm bell to get to donors."
What can I expect from each side if they win?
Pinpointing the top legislative issues Congress will tackle in 2025 is still a challenge given the number of moving parts tied to the election results and myriad outside forces.
But there are some topics that must be addressed no matter what, including whether to extend the Trump tax cuts of 2017, a federal spending dispute that seems all but certain to still be raging next year and how much U.S. support should be dedicated to the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
Republicans are honing in on immigration and the economy as the core of their appeals to voters this year. They say they would oppose out-of-control spending that contributes to inflation and lock in low taxes for both families and businesses. On the border, they argue that the uptick in migrant crossings at the southern border during the Biden administration has made life worse for Americans, and say they plan to crack down on illegal immigration.
“Your taxes are going to go up if Democrats take control of the House and the presidency,” said Republican campaign strategist Brad Todd. “That’ll be bad for everybody.”
Democrats, meanwhile, are highlighting reproductive rights, healthcare and democracy in their campaign pitch. They promise to pursue federal protections for the abortion rights that the U.S. Supreme Court overturned in 2022, to protect entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, and reduce the cost of prescription drugs. They also argue that Trump plans to abuse the power of the presidency and will ignore the checks and balances that ensure a functioning democracy.
“The stakes of the election couldn’t be higher,” Sarah Guggenheimer, spokesperson for the Democratic super PAC Senate Majority PAC, said in a statement. “Come November, voters will choose between Republican Senate candidates who only care about lining their own pockets or Democrats who will continue their work to lower costs, enshrine abortion protections, and invest in hardworking families.”
Whether either side will be able to deliver on their promises will depend on who wins both chambers of Congress and the White House. If all three go to the same party, they are likely to be able to pass more of their liberal or conservative agenda.
If they are split – either between the White House and Congress, or between each chamber as they are now – gridlock is more likely to be the order of the day. Only more moderate or must-pass legislation is expected to get done during divided government.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: What to know about the battle to control the House and Senate
