Labour can win in Scotland because SNP ‘missed point’ of by-election defeat
Labour can beat the SNP across Scotland because Humza Yousaf no longer puts voters’ interests first, Anas Sarwar is to tell his party’s UK conference after a poll found he is on course to become first minister.
The Scottish Labour leader will argue that his party’s overwhelming victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election showed “the cracks in the foundations of the SNP are deeper and wider than they’ve ever recognised”.
In his keynote speech to the Labour conference in Liverpool on Monday afternoon, he will state that senior nationalists had “missed the point” by blaming tactical voting by unionists for the massive scale of their defeat.
Instead he will argue that the SNP had lost so badly because “they’ve made the mistake of thinking politics is a game”, focusing on the “same old constitutional fights” instead of improving public services in Scotland.
In a direct challenge to the First Minister, Mr Sarwar will say: “So, I say to Humza Yousaf: this isn’t about swings or the polls – this is about putting the people of Scotland first.
“And because you won’t do that – we can beat you across Scotland. Every community in Scotland now has the chance to choose change with Scottish Labour.”
His speech follows an extraordinary 20.4 per cent swing from the SNP to Labour in last week’s by-election, with the victorious candidate Michael Shanks attracting almost 60 per cent of the popular vote.
Sir John Curtice, the UK’s most eminent psephologist, said a similar swing nationwide would see Labour win 42 seats – up from just one in the last election.
The SNP’s tally would collapse from 48 to just six – the same total they had before the 2014 independence referendum that saw their popular support surge.
Mr Sarwar will also address the conference after a poll also found Labour is on course to become the largest party in Holyrood at the 2026 elections, up from third at present, putting Mr Sarwar in poll position to become first minister.
The Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times saw the SNP slip a point to 35 per cent in the constituency vote compared to a similar poll conducted in June, while Labour remained on 32 per cent.
The Conservatives would go up three points to 16 per cent, the Lib Dems would fall two points to nine per cent, the Greens would remain on seven per cent and others would pick up one per cent.
Regional list vote
But on the regional list vote, which uses a form of proportional representation, Labour went up two points to 30 per cent, overtaking the SNP, who fell by a point to 29 per cent.
The Tories went up one point to 18 per cent, while the Greens and Lib Dems remained on 12 per cent and eight per cent respectively.
Sir John said that this would see the number of Labour MSPs almost double to 42, while the SNP would drop from 64 to 41.
Mr Yousaf’s Green coalition partners would win 15, up from seven, but the two pro-independence parties would be left nine short of a combined majority.
The poll also predicted that the SNP would remain the largest Scottish party at Westminster after the next general election, winning 26 seats, down from the 48 they won in the 2019 contest.
Labour would surge from the one seat they took last time to 22, boosting Sir Keir Starmer’s chances of becoming prime minister, while the Tories would retain their six constituencies and the Liberal Democrats five.
Mr Sarwar remained the most popular party leader, with a net rating of minus two – the difference between the proportion of Scots who approve and disapprove of his performance.
Mr Yousaf’s rating fell by seven points to minus 19, while Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross’s score dropped by three points to minus 37.
The SNP was approached for comment.