Last New York Times/Siena poll of the 7 battleground states released: See the results

The final slate of polls from The New York Times and Siena College released Sunday show that Vice President Kamala Harris appears to have a slight lead in enough states to win the Electoral College.

The polls had Harris ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia. Former President Donald Trump and Harris were tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan while Trump was ahead in Arizona, though every result was within the margin of error. Harris would have at least 274 electoral votes, enough to take the White House, if those results were realized after Election Day.

The narrow margin stands in stark contrast to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll released late Saturday that showed Harris up by 3% in Iowa, a state that was considered safe for Trump.

The polls were conducted with likely voters between Oct. 24-Nov. 2 and surveyed 7,879 likely voters across the battleground states with a margin of error of ±3.5% in each state.

New York Times/Siena College final swing state polls

Arizona

The Times had Trump ahead of Harris 49%-45% in the Copper State.

A proposition to enshrine the right to abortion up to the point of fetal viability saw 54% of respondents favoring it and 39% against it.

In the state's Senate race, Democrat Ruben Gallego has a five-point lead over Republican Kari Lake with the poll putting the race at 50%-45%.

Arizona is the only state where Trump has a lead with people who have already cast a ballot, according to the poll. Trump leads amongst Arizonans who have already voted 50%-46%.

Election Day is less than two days away. Sign up for USA TODAY's On Politics newsletter for breaking news and exclusive analysis.

Georgia

The Times found Harris leads 48% to Trump's 47% in the Peach State.

The candidates were tied at 46% when third party candidates were included.

Three percent of respondents in the state told the Times that they had made their decision in the "last few days."

The poll found that 57% of people in the state said that the federal response to "recent hurricanes" was either fair or poor.

Michigan

The candidates were tied at 47% in Michigan, the Times found. The race remains tied, though at 45%, when third party candidates are included.

The survey found that The Great Lakes State was one of two states where Trump is projected to exceed his 2020 vote share, with the other being Arizona.

Democrat Elissa Slotkin leads Republican challenger Mike Rodgers 48%-46% in the state's Senate race.

Text us your Election Day questions: Join Your Vote, our messaging group

Nevada

Harris has the widest lead in the slate of polls in Nevada, leading Trump 49%-46%. When third party candidates are included, the lead shrinks to 48%-46%.

A ballot proposition to enshrine abortion rights in the Silver State's constitution sees 63% support in the poll.

Both candidates' favorability ratings were underwater in the state, with Trump's approval at -7% and Harris at -3%.

North Carolina

Harris led Trump in the Times' poll of North Carolina 48%-46%.

Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein leads Republican Lt. Governor Mark Robinson by 17% in the state's race for governor. The race, marred by discoveries of Robinson's history of lewd and racist statements online, is part of the reason why the state is in play for Democrats.

A majority of respondents, 52%, rated the federal response to Hurricane Helene as fair or poor and 3% said that it would make at least some impact on their ability to vote.

Pennsylvania

Trump and Harris are tied in the Keystone State at 48%, according to the poll. This marks a four-point swing toward Trump in the state.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey leads in his race over Republican Dave McCormick by 5%, a drop from 9% in the Times' previous polling of the race in September.

The poll found that 55% of respondents were certain to vote and that 21% had already voted.

Wisconsin

Harris leads Trump in Wisconsin 49%-47%, according to the poll.

The Times found that abortion was nearly equal in importance to voters in the Badger State as the economy.

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has a four-point advantage over Republican challenger Eric Hovde in the poll.

Things to keep in mind about polling

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.

When a candidate's lead is "inside" the margin of error, it is considered a "statistical tie," according to Pew Research Center.

Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump's performance was significantly underestimated.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Last New York Times poll of swing states released: See results