How likely is Election Day violence? Here's what experts predict.

Threats of political violence, intimidation and insurrection have surged across the online extremist ecosystem in recent weeks, driven by a network of conspiracy theorists, disinformation peddlers and propagandists.

With tensions and rhetoric sky-high, experts who monitor domestic extremists say they are waiting and watching for what many feel is an inevitable violent post-election showdown, possibly along the lines of the Jan. 6 insurrection. But how, where, or when such an event happens remains unclear, they said, and a lot depends on the results of the election.

More than a dozen experts on violent domestic extremism consulted by USA TODAY said they are closely monitoring extremists’ online chatter and organizing, watching narratives build, and keeping an eye on anything that looks like a potential flashpoint. But they also noted 2024 is different from 2020, including in some ways that might help tamp down the possibility of political violence.

The groups and communities that helped organize the insurrection on Jan. 6 remain largely fragmented, if not entirely abandoned, and have barely been seen in public for years. Former President Donald Trump, while still drawing crowds, does not have a track record post-2020 of organizing mass protests. And, perhaps most crucially, disgruntled members of the far-right have not, so far, gathered on the streets in the same way they did in the runup to the 2020 election, said Megan Squire, deputy director for data analytics at the Southern Poverty Law Center.

”I do not see right wing groups on the ground in massive numbers, going to anti-mask, anti-vax and neo-Confederate rallies; I do not see them putting each other's number in their phones; they are not showing up at events, learning to trust one another; I am not seeing organized groups hosting nightly fundraisers for buying body armor and transportation,” Squire said. “ It’s a wildly different landscape.”

More: Interference and voting issues in the 2024 election: Tracking incidents state-by-state

Could another Jan. 6 happen?

One possibility for political violence in the wake of the election is a repeat of the violent Jan. 6 insurrection. But experts said it’s unlikely Washington D.C. will see a repeat of the Capitol riot in which one protester was killed by police, and which has led to more than 1,400 arrests.

In the nation’s capital, police and security agencies will be on full alert for any planning for action on Jan. 6, said Colin P. Clarke, director of research at the Soufan Group, a global intelligence consultancy.

“The show of deterrence is going to be so overwhelming that only a fool is going to go there in force,” Clarke said. “We have a lot of fools in this country, but it won’t be something as organized and able to overwhelm the defenses like we saw in 2021.”

A more likely scenario that worries extremism watchers comes in a tight election when votes are still being counted in the days after Nov. 5.

More: Domestic extremists and conspiracy theorists pose greatest threat during election: Reports

Conspiracy theorists and their extremist allies might identify one or several local vote-counting centers in swing states and direct angry Trump supporters to target them with civil disobedience or violence, said Heidi Beirich, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism.

“If anything is going to get hot and heavy, it’s going to be because the election is dragging out,” Beirich said. “Where angry MAGA people and maybe some bad actors like white supremacists go out to an election count center and start alleging fraud.”

Clarke agreed.

Such a scenario might play out in several different states, he said, instead of the nation’s capital.

“Rather than a massive Jan 6-type incident, I’m concerned we could see a number of smaller incidents at local polling stations, that becomes a cascading effect where people say, ‘You’ve gotta get out there, you’ve gotta prevent people from stealing this election,’” Clarke said. “That way it becomes more of a death by a thousand papercuts than any one big singular event.”

Threats of political  violence from lone attackers

Regardless of organized acts of  political violence, some extremism experts remain very concerned about individual acts of post-election violence by members of the far-left or the far-right.

Recent history has shown that far-right extremists are more likely to become disgruntled and commit political violence in the wake of a Trump loss, said Jared Holt, a senior research analyst at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue.

Holt said Trump fans with a propensity for violence have been lulled into a sense of calm and an expectation of vindication by Trump’s often angry and confrontational campaign. Just as supporters of the QAnon conspiracy theory bided their time waiting for a coming “storm” of criminal and political retribution against their enemies if Trump won office, many election fraud conspiracy theorists believe Trump will soon take office and clean up decades of corruption, Holt said.

If Trump loses, especially in a tight race, those same conspiracy-thriven extremists may decide to take matters into their own hands, Holt said.

“This is a movement that preached to its followers that their political opponents are not just people who think differently than you, but represent some kind of existential — even Satanic and evil — threat to your safety and security,” Holt said. “People that are animated by these beliefs may feel compelled to act on them.

The same could be true if Trump wins the presidency, but from agitators on the far-left, Clarke warned.

Anti-fascists and Anarchists have expressed desire to avenge a Trump win, Clarke said.

“Violence from the left historically hasn’t been nearly as lethal, but anarchists and Antifa folks have said they see a Trump win as an existential threat and that they are willing to go further than they have in the past,” he said.

Proud Boys, Oath Keepers unlikely to play a role

One thing extremism experts consulted by USA TODAY agree on is that the major groups that played a role in the political violence up to and including Jan. 6 are shadows of their former selves today and are unlikely to be big players in any disruption this year.

Members of the street gang the Proud Boys, for example, have barely been seen in public for the last two years, Holt said. People wearing Proud Boys colors have occasionally been spotted at Trump rallies, but the group appears to have shrunk to a few disgruntled and anonymous Telegram channels, with little of the clout it once had, he said.

Leaders of the Oath Keepers, a self-styled “militia” that once counted thousands of current and former police officers and military on its membership rolls were jailed for seditious conspiracy for their role in Jan. 6. Since their demise, the group has fallen apart, experts who monitor armed far-right movements told USA TODAY. And the same can be said for other self-styled militias, none of which have caught fire in the same way the Oath Keepers once did, Squire said.

Simply put, the extremism landscape in 2024 is very different to what it was in 2020, Squire said. That means experts who monitor that landscape need to evolve their thinking and their methods and keep an open mind about what potential threats look like in the coming days and weeks.

“That's not to say that something won't happen, but it’s not going to look the same,” Squire said. “So we have to not be using last time's playbook.”

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will there be violence after the election? Experts weigh in.