Likely voters favor GOP in all 4 congressional districts ahead of election, Iowa Poll says
Iowa’s likely voters give the edge to Republican candidates over Democrats in all four of the state’s congressional districts, a new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.
And among the key issues they want to see Congress address are inflation, spending, immigration and health care.
GOP candidates are favored in all four districts, all of which have Republican representatives, among likely voters ahead of November’s general election.
The tightest margin comes in Iowa’s eastern 1st District, where a Republican candidate is favored by 12 percentage points over a Democrat.
The largest gap is in the northwest 4th District, where a Republican candidate is favored over a Democrat by 25 percentage points.
The results come following a primary election season that included several contested races for party nominations, as Democrats hope to retake some Republican-held seats.
Overall, likely voters say they’d prefer a Republican congressional candidate over a Democrat 56%-38%, a margin of 18 percentage points.
In February’s Iowa Poll, Republican candidates led overall 54%-37%.
In the June poll, the results in each congressional district are:
1st District: 53% Republican, 41% Democrat, 6% not sure.
2nd District: 57% Republican, 36% Democrat, 4% other, 3% not sure.
3rd District: 55% Republican, 40% Democrat, 5% not sure.
4th District: 60% Republican, 35% Democrat, 1% other, 5% not sure
Those who identified with a major party when polled are almost all loyal to their party’s congressional candidate: 96% of Republicans back a GOP candidate, and 97% of Democrats back a Democratic candidate.
But independents slightly prefer a Republican candidate overall, with 49% supporting a Republican compared with 42% for a Democrat.
Selzer & Co. conducted the poll of 806 Iowa adults from June 9-14. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. The sample size is 632 likely voters statewide, and the margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
For individual districts, the margin of error ranges from plus or minus 7.3 percentage points to 8.1 percentage points.
Iowa’s 1st, 3rd districts could prove competitive
Democrats are eyeing the 1st and 3rd districts as their best opportunities to wrestle back control in Iowa.
In the 3rd District, which includes the Des Moines metro, Republican U.S. Rep. Zach Nunn is seeking a second term after winning by less than 1 percentage point in 2022.
Nunn will face Democrat Lanon Baccam, a military veteran and former U.S. Department of Agriculture official who handily won a contested primary.
Kimberly Roberts, a 49-year-old poll respondent from Ankeny, said she planned to support Baccam in part because of his past work and association with former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack.
“He’s with Vilsack, and I like Vilsack,” Roberts said.
Likely voters’ 15 percentage-point preference for a Republican candidate in the 3rd District is an increase from February’s Iowa Poll, when a Republican was favored by 3 percentage points (47% Republican to 44% Democrat).
In the 1st District, which includes Davenport and Iowa City, Republican U.S. Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is in a rematch with Democrat Christina Bohannan. Miller-Meeks defeated Bohannan by about 7 percentage points in 2022.
Poll respondent Robert Moninger, 86, of Iowa City said he planned to vote for Miller-Meeks in November. He said he used to vote for some Democrats who held state offices but has generally supported Republicans.
“I don’t see any reason not to,” Moninger said. “She’s been working, and the rest of the delegation knows her pretty well.”
February’s poll gave a Democrat a 4 percentage-point edge in the 1st District. This poll has Republicans in front.
Iowa’s Republican representatives in the 2nd and 4th districts are also facing Democratic challengers but likely voters in those districts prefer Republicans by comfortable margins.
U.S. Rep. Randy Feenstra is running for another term in the heavily Republican 4th District, where he won by 37 percentage points in 2022. A Republican is favored in that district in the poll by a 25-point margin.
And U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson is seeking reelection in the 2nd District, which she won by 8 percentage points in 2022. A Republican candidate is preferred by 21 percentage points in the district, which includes Cedar Rapids.
Iowans want congressional action on inflation, spending, immigration and more
Iowans were asked about a range of issues Congress may address in the coming year and how much each issue matters to them as they think about the election this fall.
They were asked to rate each issue as “critical,” important but not critical” or “not that important.
Iowans rate inflation as critical most often (64%), followed by government spending and national debt (63%) and health care and immigration (both at 57%).
Among the other issues polled were crime (52% rate it critical), abortion (51%), election laws (48%), climate change (31%) and LGBTQ policies (20%).
Rich Kooiker, a 63-year-old poll respondent from Orange City, plans to support Republican candidates and cited immigration and inflation among his most critical issues.
"I know there’s good people within all of those situations, but I just think as a nation, we have to kind of protect our own culture,” Kooiker said. “We have to protect our borders.”
He views the issues of inflation and government spending as two sides of the same coin and expressed frustration with higher prices.
“We’re just getting robbed,” he said.
One independent — poll respondent Mike Webb, 64, of Dubuque — said he was exasperated by Congress’ repeated failures to address the southern border through bipartisan legislation.
“Is it really an issue? Or is it just a political ploy?” Webb said. “If you want to do something about it, you know ... what I’m sick of, with our government, is everybody talks about the party.”
Webb added that in bipartisan politics, “you don’t get everything you want.”
“But everything gets weaponized if they help the other side out,” he said.
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Roberts, of Ankeny, said her own experiences with health issues had led her to view health care as a top issue — from mental health access to abortion rights.
“That is a personal choice between a woman and their child, and everybody’s situation is different,” Roberts said of abortion. “We can’t just put a blanket rule over that. It’s gotten to the point where I know, personally, that not having access to that does affect a woman’s health.”
Which issues do supporters of Trump and Biden view as critical?
Among likely Iowa voters who rate each of the top four issues as critical, former President Donald Trump leads over President Joe Biden:
Immigration: 67% who rate it “critical” back Trump; 16% support Biden.
Inflation: 65% Trump; 16% Biden.
Government spending and national debt: 64% Trump, 17% Biden.
Health care: 43% Trump, 36% Biden.
Trump also is the preferred candidate for two other issues tested: crime (64% Trump, 16% Biden) and election laws (60% Trump, 29% Biden).
Biden is the candidate of choice by wide margins for two issues tested: climate change (70% Biden, 13% Trump) and LGBTQ policies (52% Biden, 31% Trump).
Abortion is the issue most closely splitting supporters of Trump and Biden (41% Biden, 38% Trump).
Galen Bacharier covers the Statehouse & politics for the Register. Reach him at [email protected]m or (573) 219-7440, and follow him on Twitter @galenbacharier.
About the Iowa Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted June 9-14, 2024, for The Des Moines Register and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 806 Iowans ages 18 or older. Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted households with randomly selected landline and cell phone numbers supplied by Dynata. Interviews were administered in English. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect the general population based on recent American Community Survey estimates.
Questions based on the sample of 806 Iowa adults have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit and, on digital platforms, links to originating content on The Des Moines Register and Mediacom is prohibited.
This article originally appeared on Des Moines Register: Republicans preferred in Iowa’s congressional districts, Iowa Poll says