Mark Kelly could bring pluses, minuses to Democratic presidential ticket: What to know

With the Democratic presidential ticket being redrawn, U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly is a name on the short list of possible entries.

President Joe Biden quit the race Sunday and later backed Vice President Kamala Harris to head a revised Democratic team. Kelly, an Arizona Democrat, had generated buzz, mostly as a possibility to serve as Harris’ running mate if needed.

It is a heady but unsurprising rise for a man whose biography and political career suggest more could be possible.

Kelly threw his support behind Harris on Sunday in a written statement, saying he “couldn’t be more confident” she can defeat former President Donald Trump and pledged to help her do so. Before Sunday, Kelly had maintained support for the Biden-Harris ticket.

On Wednesday, he helped lead Democratic pushback against JD Vance, the Republican vice-presidential nominee, while explicitly urging people to support a Biden-Harris ticket during an appearance on MSNBC.

On Friday, he posted a social media message extending his attacks on Vance and repeating his support for Biden and Harris.

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Political experts said Kelly brings serious upside potential to the Democrats and there are several reasons he still might not make the cut for Democrats.

“To his advantage, Kelly is a fresh face on the national scene,” said Michael Genovese, a political science professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles who has written extensively about the presidency.

“He’s not well-known outside of Washington and outside of the talking heads, so that doesn’t carry with it all the baggage insiders might carry. … He’s kind of an untainted presence.”

Joel K. Goldstein, a retired constitutional law professor at Saint Louis University who has written two books on the vice presidency, said Kelly’s “level of experience would be on the shorter end” for a spot on the ticket.

“There are others whose experience is comparable or even less,” Goldstein said. “My sense is people are impressed with him.”

Mary Anne Marsh, a Boston-based Democratic strategist, said Kelly has more experience than Trump did before he entered the White House. Perhaps the only drawback for Kelly is there are others, such as governors Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Roy Cooper of North Carolina, also in the mix, she said.

“The conversations I have with my peers — other consultants, other activists, other people who are politically connected — his name comes up nine times out of 10,” she said. “But I would say Shapiro, Cooper and others come up 10 times out of 10.”

Kelly’s name is popping up with more regularity.

He was among a group of three other Democrats who a Democratic pollster found fared better than Biden with voters in swing states in a memo leaked Wednesday to Politico.

The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling conducted a poll in recent days asking Arizonans for their views on Biden, Harris, Trump and Vance, as well as Kelly.

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A Boston Globe columnist mused about a Harris-Kelly ticket, saying it “could bring Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, and perhaps Nevada’s six, into the Democratic column.”

The headline in a Daily Beast story last week touting Kelly’s credentials said simply: “The Democrats need a hero. They actually already have one.”

“If Kamala Harris were to become the presidential nominee, then most of the names you’ve heard have tended to be white male elected officials,” Marsh said. “Certainly, Mark Kelly has been on the list and conversations that I’ve heard, and given that he’s from an important state that Democrats need to win, for that alone it’s worth the mention, not to mention that he was a national figure before he became a senator.”

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Kelly is a former Navy fighter pilot and astronaut who gained additional prominence after the 2011 attempted assassination of his wife, former U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz.

He won a special election to the U.S. Senate in 2020 to finish the term of the late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and won a six-year term in his own right in 2022.

Kelly possesses the kind of military chops rare for Democrats and hails from a state his party would dearly like to keep in its column in November. Kelly is among the best-funded Democrats in the Senate.

Genovese said that Kelly’s persona “exudes male strength” and could help Democrats offset some of their weakness with men. That would be even more essential in a ticket headed by Harris, who he said is unfairly judged as lacking strength.

“He’s got a lot of assets going for him and he’s got to be on the final list,” Genovese said. “This is uncharted territory, so all things are possible.”

Marsh agreed that everything is now on the table.

“There’s so many unknowns. But given how little time is left … it’s never too early to talk about everything,” she said.

While that may be the case, no scenario for Democrats is without significant risk.

Many believe Democrats must choose Harris to head the ticket because as the sitting vice president she has a stronger claim than anyone else and, as a woman and person of color, passing her over could be disastrous with demographics that serve as the cornerstone of the Democratic voter base.

At the same time, a Kelly departure from the Senate, if it came to that, would create an opening in Arizona that Democrats don’t relish.

“There are some real questions, though. Can he deliver Arizona? That would be a big plus for him if the polling said he could deliver Arizona,” Genovese said. “Another question is whether Democrats want to give up a seat in the Senate? That’s going to be tough for the Democrats anyway. And then do you want another Westerner on the ticket?”

Apart from that, there are at least two strong contenders from gubernatorial ranks who would also help in swing states and help in the nation’s Rust Belt: Pennsylvania’s Shapiro and Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer.

Both have executive experience in states that may represent the most plausible path to an electoral majority for Democrats at this point.

Shapiro could be a top alternative for Democrats because he is governor of Pennsylvania, a must-win state in any scenario for that party.

He is Jewish, which could help blunt criticism that the Biden administration has been insufficiently supportive of Israel in its ongoing war in Gaza, Genovese said.

That might not help their standing in Michigan, where a notably large swath of Muslim voters see the administration as allowing Israel to massacre Palestinians in its search for members of Hamas.

Whitmer could help bring Michigan back into play for Democrats, but would put two women on the ticket if Harris remains. That presents an untested combination for voters.

Marsh said that is no reason to count Whitmer out.

“If you were ever going to have two women at the top of the ticket,” Marsh said, “this year, given how women feel about abortion, that is what’s going to drive this election. I think everyone is missing the mark here.

“It’s like in 2022, when everyone said there was going to be a red wave, and it was going to be the economy and inflation and immigration. It was not. They’re doing the same thing with this election. It will be women and abortion.”

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Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a two-term incumbent in a very red state, could appeal to moderates.

Goldstein said the measuring stick for a vice president isn’t a mystery.

“What you’re looking for in a vice-presidential candidate is somebody who is a plausible president, somebody who passes a vetting screen — so there’s not going to be some revelation that is going to derail the presidential campaign — and then you’re looking at whether they are ready for the national stage.”

This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Mark Kelly could bring pluses, minuses as Democrats weigh options