New Marquette poll shows Kamala Harris, Donald Trump in a dead heat in Wisconsin
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are in a statistical dead heat in Wisconsin, according to a Marquette University Law School poll that for the first time measures the updated head-to-head matchup.
Among registered voters, 50% supported Trump and 49% supported Harris. Among likely voters, 50% supported Harris and 49% supported Trump, according to the poll released Wednesday. When polling for President Joe Biden and Trump, Biden was at 42% and Trump at 47% among registered voters.
"Harris, by replacing Biden, has really made up this deficit that had been created with Biden's problem with the debate," poll director Charles Franklin said. "The party obviously just really quickly coalesced around (Harris), and that has boosted people's perceptions of her in terms of favorability."
When factoring in third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Harris led Trump by two percentage points, 45% to 43%. Kennedy is polling at 8% among registered voters in Wisconsin, the same as he polled in June and down from 13% and 17% in earlier months.
The new poll surveyed 877 registered voters, between July 24 and Aug. 1. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. There were 801 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.8 points. Starting next month, the poll will emphasize likely voters as the November election draws closer, Franklin said.
The results released Wednesday are the first installment of the poll since Biden dropped out of the race July 21 and Harris became the Democratic nominee. The June poll before his exit showed Biden essentially tied with Trump in Wisconsin, but with lagging voter enthusiasm for Biden.
"Democrats had been unenthusiastic about Biden all year. After the debate, a lack of enthusiasm, I think, turned to near depression. When he made that decision, it opened the door to a fresh campaign," Franklin said.
In the new poll, respondents who considered themselves "very enthusiastic" to vote still leaned toward Trump 52% to Harris' 47%. That narrows the numbers from June, when that group leaned 61% for Trump to 39% for Biden. Harris has a slight lead among "somewhat enthusiastic" voters.
"Now, we're seeing nearly equal levels of enthusiasm within Republicans and Democrats. Republicans have a small edge still, but it's a very small edge," Franklin said.
Nearly 80% of Wisconsin registered voters thought Biden made the right decision to withdraw from the race, including 91% of Democrats. A third of voters said Biden should resign before the end of his term, and 58% said he should serve out the remainder of his presidency.
JD Vance viewed more unfavorably than favorably
The survey was released just an hour before Harris was set to speak at a rally in Eau Claire, her second stop in a tour of battleground states with running mate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz. Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance was also expected to make remarks in the same city.
In the poll, 31% of Wisconsin voters viewed Vance favorably and 41% unfavorably, while 29% did not give an opinion. More than three-quarters of Republicans considered Vance an "excellent" or "good" pick for vice president. Independents were more mixed, and two-thirds of Democrats considered Vance a "poor" choice.
Walz was announced as Harris' running mate after the poll was conducted, so Marquette has not yet asked voters about their perceptions of him. Trump named Vance as his VP pick at the Republican National Convention, before the poll was in the field.
Lack of concern about Harris' age could switch the problem to Trump
On the issues, voters viewed Trump as stronger on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, the economy and foreign relations. Voters considered Harris better at handling abortion policy, health care, ensuring fair and accurate elections, and Medicare and Social Security.
Those were the same issues that Biden led on, but Harris had higher margins that gave her an advantage compared to Biden. And while age was one of the biggest issues for the 81-year-old Biden, only 12% said the same about the 59-year-old Harris. Trump is 78.
"This is obviously not an issue for her, but it flips the script because 59% say Trump is too old to be president," Franklin said. "Trump has gone from the not-quite-so-old guy who didn't have as much of a problem, to now clearly being much more perceived as too old compared to Harris."
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Marquette poll shows Harris, Trump in a dead heat in Wisconsin
