Marquette poll takeaways: Enthusiasm, Walz favorability, third-parties, independents

A new Marquette University Law School poll released Wednesday shows Vice President Kamala Harris with a four-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the race for president in battleground Wisconsin.

The poll also shows Harris leading for the first time among the most enthusiastic voters, while Trump held that advantage when President Joe Biden was still in the race and during the early days of Harris' own campaign.

The new poll surveyed 822 registered voters, 738 considered likely voters, between Aug. 28 and Sept. 5. The margin of error for likely voters was plus or minus 4.7 points and plus or minus 4.6 points for registered voters.

Here are the takeaways from the new poll and what they mean for the Nov. 5 election.

Harris now leads among the most enthusiastic voters

The biggest story out of the last poll, the first to reflect President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, was that Harris reduced Democrats' enthusiasm gap with Republicans. While Trump still had a slight edge among the most enthusiastic voters in the August poll, that advantage has now switched to Harris.

Voters who consider themselves "very" enthusiastic to vote broke 53% for Harris and 47% for Trump in the new poll. Republicans were running far ahead of Democrats in enthusiasm when Biden was still in the race, Franklin said.

"And now this month, Democrats surged ahead, clearly leading in enthusiasm," he said. "This is one of the giant changes that's taken place. But a good chunk of that, of course, is because Democrats who used to be not enthusiastic now are enthusiastic."

More: Gilbert: Marquette poll shows striking changes in Wisconsin battleground race

More: Wisconsin Democrats say enthusiasm boost could lift party to success in legislative races

More people are tuning into the Wisconsin Senate race

Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin still has a lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde, with 52% of registered voters supporting Baldwin and 48% backing Hovde. That represents little change from the August poll.

But what has changed is more people paying attention to the Senate race, including learning more about Hovde. In this poll, 22% of voters said they hadn't heard enough about him, compared to 82% in January. Baldwin and Hovde are scheduled to have one debate on Oct. 18.

"I think voters are beginning to pay attention to (the Senate race) in a way that over the summer, with all the happenings at the presidential level, perhaps they weren't paying as much attention," Franklin said.

Hovde is viewed favorably by 34% of voters in the new poll and unfavorably by 43%. Baldwin is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 46%, with 7% saying they don't know enough about the senator running for a third term.

Third-party candidates are polling larger than 2016, 2020 totals

Factoring in third-party candidates like Jill Stein, Cornel West and Chase Oliver, Harris leads 47% compared to Trump's 43% among registered voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s support has dropped steadily over the past months, now down to 6% in the new poll from 8% in the August poll.

That multi-candidate race adds up to about a 9% total third-party vote in Wisconsin, Franklin said, which is "a good bit bigger than what we normally see. The biggest total third-party vote recently was in 2016, when it was 5 1/2% total for all the third-party candidates. In 2020, it was only 1 1/2%."

The poll released Wednesday is the first installment since Kennedy dropped out of the race and endorsed Trump on Aug. 23. The vast majority of Wisconsin voters polled were aware Kennedy decided to drop out: 86% of registered voters said they heard the news he was suspending his campaign, while 14% did not.

Kennedy's name remains on the November ballot in Wisconsin, after election officials cited a state law that prevents him from removing his name. Kennedy has since sued to pull his name from the ballot. Local clerks in Wisconsin must start sending absentee ballots to voters by Sept. 19.

Tim Walz is the only national candidate with net positive favorability

The new poll is also the first installment since the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was nominated as Democrats' choice for vice president. Democrats consider Walz helpful to the campaign in Wisconsin, especially in the western part of the state, which shares media markets with Minnesota.

More: Gilbert: Why presidential campaigns heap attention on western Wisconsin

In the poll, 43% of Wisconsin voters viewed Walz favorably and 37% viewed him unfavorably, with 19% saying they haven't heard enough or didn't know. Republican vice presidential candidate and Ohio U.S. Sen. JD Vance is viewed favorably by 37% of voters and unfavorably by 47%, with 16% having no opinion.

Walz is the only name at the top of the ticket — including third-party candidates — with a net positive favorability rating, meaning more people view him favorably than unfavorably. Harris and Trump both have net negative favorability.

And while voters consider Vance more conservative than Trump, voters don't consider Walz more liberal than Harris. Voters also see themselves as more moderate compared to the views of candidates at the top of the ticket.

"Whatever Walz's record as governor was, which has been a point of attack for Republicans against him, the public at least so far, at least here in Wisconsin is not seeing him as extremist," Franklin said.

Most independents don't see abortion as top issue

While voters consider abortion policy to be Harris' strongest issue, independents don't consider it one of their top priorities. Only 8% of independents listed abortion policy as their top issue in deciding who to vote for, compared to 42% who listed the economy and 12% who said Medicare and Social Security.

That puts independents far closer to Republicans on abortion policy: 6% of Republicans ranked it their top issue, compared to 27% of Democrats. On the flip side, independents are much closer to Democrats than Republicans in considering immigration and border security a less important issue.

"If you think of campaign strategy, Democrats have a base that is extraordinarily energized over abortion. But independents, even though two-thirds of independents favor abortion rights, just don't rate it as a very important issue," Franklin said. "This is a challenge for the campaigns."

Independents are also far less enthusiastic than members of both parties to vote in November. Only 31% of independents consider themselves "very" enthusiastic to vote, compared to 72% of Democrats and 63% of Republicans.

What's the source of political divisions?

Over a decade later, the Marquette poll returned to a question that was initially asked in 2013: Are political divisions in Washington mostly among elected officials, or do they reflect a more divided American society overall?

In 2024, some 65% of voters in Wisconsin say divisions in Washington reflect a more divided society, while 34% say divisions are mostly among elected officials.

That’s a dramatic swing from October 2013, when 53% said the divisions were mostly among elected officials and 38% said society itself was more divided.

The 2013 poll followed a series of 2012 recall elections in Wisconsin following Republican Gov. Scott Walker’s push to all but end collective bargaining for most public workers, which was known as Act 10.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Here are 6 takeaways from the new Marquette poll of Wisconsin voters