Marquette poll of Wisconsin voters shows Trump, Biden locked in a tight race
MADISON — With seven months to go until the 2024 election, President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump remain locked in a tight race in Wisconsin, according to the newest Marquette University Law School Poll.
Wisconsin is one of just a handful of contested states that will decide the next presidential contest and as of now, Biden and Trump are just 2 points apart in the battleground state where statewide races are often decided by just a few thousand votes.
Among both registered voters and likely voters, 51% supported Trump while 49% supported Biden. That includes undecided voters (8% of those polled) who were then asked, if they had to choose right now, who they would support. Undecided voters tended to break toward Biden, poll director Charles Franklin noted during Wednesday's release of the poll.
"If anything, there is a slight movement in Trump's direction," Franklin said.
The latest poll surveyed 814 registered voters in Wisconsin between April 3-10. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points, Franklin said. The poll survey makeup was 34% Republican, 31% Democratic and 34% independent — a slightly heavier sample of Republican than on average.
Effect of RJK Jr., other third-party candidates is minimal
The race changed very little when respondents were given the option of third-party candidates.
With five candidates on the list, 41% of registered voters said they would vote for Trump, while 40% backed Biden.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., netted 13% of registered voters, followed by Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3% and independent candidate Cornel West at 2%.
Voter enthusiasm is low
Only 47% of those surveyed said they are "very enthusiastic" about voting — down slightly from 49% in January. That's a dramatic drop from March 2020, when 67% of voters were very enthusiastic about the election.
Franklin noted that measure didn't transfer to the percentage of voters who say they're certain they'll cast a ballot.
“So possibly we have a bunch of unenthusiastic, but committed, voters," Franklin said.
The people who are "very enthusiastic" break toward Trump, 59-41, and those who are "somewhat enthusiastic" lean toward Trump 55-45. That's a reversal from the last poll, when Biden had a modest advantage. On the other hand, Biden leads — 64-46 and 62-37 — among voters who are not very or not at all enthusiastic.
In Marquette's previous Wisconsin survey, 63% of Republican voters said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting for president and other offices this fall. Only 39% of Democrats said so. That was by far the biggest partisan disparity (24 points) ever measured by Marquette, which has asked the question 34 times from 2014 to 2024.
"Biden supporters, or would-be supporters, aren’t super excited about that, but they seem to still prefer him and be likely to vote for him, if they vote," Franklin said.
What Franklin will be watching: "Does this low enthusiasm translate into a real turnout problem for Democrats?"
More: The dilemma for Biden and Democrats in Wisconsin: a historically high enthusiasm gap
Both Trump and Biden are unpopular
Among those polled, 40% had a favorable opinion of Biden, while 59% had an unfavorable view. Trump fared slightly better, with a 43% favorability rating and a 56% on unfavorability.
"People see a mix of some strengths and weaknesses in both candidates," Franklin said, later comparing it to "a marriage of convenience or a marriage of passion."
Trump leads on immigration, economy; Biden on health care, abortion
Fifty-three percent of registered voters believe Trump would do a better job handling immigration and border security, compared to 28% who prefer Biden's approach. Trump also leads on handling the Israel-Hamas war, 46-26, and on the economy, 52-34. The candidates are closer on foreign relations, with Trump leading 44% to Biden's 41%.
Forty-five percent of registered voters believe Biden would handle Medicare and Social Security better, to Trump's 37%. Biden leads on abortion policy, 46-37, and on health care, 45-35.
One-third of voters surveyed named the economy as their most important issue, followed by 21% who named immigration and border security, 13% who named abortion and 11% who named Medicare and Social Security. Foreign relations came in at 6%, followed by health care at 5% and the Israel-Hamas war at 2%.
Most voters think Biden is too old, Trump has behaved corruptly
Eighty percent of voters believe Biden is too old to be president, compared to 58% who think that of Trump. Biden is 81; Trump is 77.
Asked which candidate most shares their values, 48% named Biden and 45% named Trump. Asked which candidate has the right temperament to serve as president, Biden topped Trump 52-41.
Sixty-one percent of voters said they believed Trump has behaved corruptly, compared to 47% who said that of Biden. And 58% of voters said Trump has made strong accomplishments, compared to 44% who attributed that quality to Biden.
Jessie Opoien can be reached at [email protected].
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Marquette poll of Wisconsin voters shows Trump, Biden in tight race