McCormick holds slight lead over Casey in Pa. as counting continues in Senate race
(This story was updated to accurately reflect the most current information.)
The Pennsylvania contest between three-term incumbent Sen. Bob Casey and GOP businessman Dave McCormick remained too close to call Thursday, with less than one percentage point separating the candidates.
McCormick was ahead by about 31,000 votes at about 3:40 p.m. Thursday, but with thousands of mail-in and absentee ballots potentially uncounted and provisional ballots outstanding, the incumbent was not ready to concede defeat — and his campaign signaled that a recount might be in store.
“Yesterday, the vote margin shrunk by 50,000 votes and this race is now within half a point, the threshold for automatic recounts in Pennsylvania," Maddy McDaniel, spokeswoman for the Casey campaign, said Thursday morning. "With tens of thousands more votes to be counted, we are committed to ensuring every Pennsylvanian's vote is heard and confident that at the end of that process, Senator Casey will be re-elected.”
The McCormick campaign, by contrast, argued that any path to victory for Casey had disappeared and noted that votes were still coming in from Republican-leaning Cambria County.
"While votes continue to be counted, any way you slice it, Dave McCormick will be the next United States Senator from Pennsylvania," Elizabeth Gregory, his campaign spokeswoman, said in a Thursday afternoon statement.
A contest finish narrower than 0.5 percentage points would trigger an automatic statewide recount, which the commonwealth's secretary of state would have to order by Nov. 14. Any recount would have to be completed by Nov. 26, according to this year's election calendar.
The Republican has never held an elected post and has positioned himself as a political outsider, in contrast to Casey, who has served in office since he was elected Pennsylvania auditor general in the mid-1990s. McCormick's resume includes time spent in military uniform, a stint as CEO of the world's largest hedge fund and service in former President George W. Bush's Treasury Department.
McCormick entered the race as an underdog, facing an incumbent who has sailed to victory against his previous re-election opponents. However, the GOP nominee steadily whittled away at Casey's polling advantage, and by November, the polling averages showed the two men were neck-and-neck.
Though Pennsylvania was considered pivotal in deciding the partisan tilt of the U.S. Senate, Republicans will take a majority in the chamber even without ousting Casey, since they've already flipped three seats in other parts of the country.
This is the second time a razor-thin margin has separated McCormick from an election opponent. In 2022, during his first Senate campaign, McCormick finished the GOP primary just 1,000 votes behind Dr. Mehmet Oz, who later lost the general election to Democrat John Fetterman.
McCormick conceded the race to Oz amid an automatic statewide recount.
Bethany Rodgers is a USA TODAY Network Pennsylvania capital bureau investigative journalist.
This article originally appeared on Erie Times-News: McCormick-Casey Senate race in PA still too close to call