Michigan's Senate, US House races to heat up with primary upon us
As spirited — some would say chaotic — as this year's presidential contest has been, the lead-up to the balloting in Michigan's U.S. Senate and congressional races has been, with few exceptions, largely a snooze.
That's about to change.
At 8 p.m. Tuesday, polls across Michigan will close (though they'll be open an hour longer until 8 p.m. Central for four counties on the western Upper Peninsula in that time zone), concluding the voting period for the state's Democratic and Republican primary elections and determining the major party candidates for one statewide office ? an open U.S. Senate seat ? as well as those for Michigan's 13 U.S. House seats and all 110 state House of Representative seats.
After that, expect the campaigning to begin in earnest with the nominees sharpening their attacks on their opposition, turning out slews of TV ads and mailers, and working to define themselves — if not trying to avoid doing so — in light of the presidential tickets that will continue to play the leading roles in this year's election drama. In fact, one of those tickets — the Democratic one led by Vice President Kamala Harris and whoever is named her running mate in coming days — is expected to make its first visit to Detroit with her as the nominee on Wednesday.
Here's a quick rundown of how the major races have gone so far and what we expect to see going forward:
Rogers, Slotkin appear to be cruising toward their nominations
Barring a major surprise, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, of Brighton, is set to become the Republican nominee for the seat being vacated by Democratic U.S. Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who is stepping down after four six-year terms. U.S. Rep. Elissa Slotkin, of Holly, is widely expected to win the Democratic nomination.
Rogers goes into the GOP primary with competition, namely former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, of Cascade Charter Township, and west Michigan physician Sherry O'Donnell. But for a candidate who moved back into Michigan to run this race — having moved to Florida — and who hadn't been in political office for most of a decade, this race has so far gone about as well as could be expected.
Not only did Rogers nail down the Republican institutional support early on, he nabbed a key — and probably determinative — endorsement from former President Donald Trump, despite Rogers' having criticized Trump in the past. One potentially tough competitor, former Detroit Police Chief James Craig, dropped out months ago, lacking resources; self-funding businessman Sandy Pensler, highly critical of Rogers, dropped out late at a rally with Trump watching. Both endorsed Rogers.
As to Slotkin, no one watching Michigan politics was surprised when she stepped forward to run: She is renowned for winning tough U.S. House races in Trump-leaning districts over three U.S. House terms; she raises scads of money and takes little for granted when it comes to campaigning.
She faces one candidate, Detroit actor Hill Harper, in Tuesday's primary, and Harper has been busy trying to drum up support, especially among Black voters who will likely be key in determining whether he has a chance or not. But he's raised only a fraction of what Slotkin has (about $3 million for him, some $24 million for her) and his campaign seemed beset by false starts and missteps early on. (Another candidate, Dearborn businessman Nasser Beydoun, was removed from the Democratic ticket because of problems with his nominating petitions.) Harper's celebrity — he has been a star of TV's "The Good Doctor" and "CSI: NY" — appeared to play less of a role in the race than it otherwise might have.
If Tuesday's primaries turn out as expected, the Senate race will become one that is watched nationally and attracts lots of outside money as Slotkin works to define Rogers as beholden to Trump and supportive of his worst ideas and Rogers tries to define Slotkin as more liberal than the public's perception of her and not as strong on border control, inflation and other top-of-mind issues as she would make out.
The well-respected Cook Political Report, an online handicapping site in Washington, has this race a toss-up, which is in itself a surprise given that no Republican has won a U.S. Senate seat in Michigan since 1994.
What are the most important U.S. House primaries on Tuesday?
In terms of the U.S. House seats that are, or may be, up for grabs this fall, one that could potentially be the most hotly contested is in the 7th Congressional District, for the seat Slotkin is vacating to run for U.S. Senate. But that race doesn't offer any drama on Tuesday, with former state Sen. Curtis Hertel, D-Lansing, and former state Sen. Tom Barrett, R-Charlotte, running unopposed in their respective primaries for the nomination.
But there are still a handful of key nomination battles to be settled for congressional seats in Michigan. Here they are in descending order of importance on how the general elections shape up on Nov. 5:
8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: This is the seat being vacated by U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, D-Flint Township, who is stepping down after six two-year terms and whose uncle Dale Kildee held the seat for 36 years before him. Now the seat is considered up for grabs, the old industrial region having trended somewhat more Republican. It will attract a lot of attention, most likely nationally.
Most political observers say the Republican nod looks to go to Paul Junge, of Grand Blanc, who ran against Kildee two years ago and lost by more than 10 percentage points. Junge has waged a tough campaign against his major GOP opponent, Mary Draves, of Midland, tagging her as insufficiently conservative despite her being backed by some national Republican groups as the better general election candidate. Junge, though, recently secured Trump's endorsement, which could be decisive. Anthony Hudson, a small businessman from Grand Blanc, is also on the GOP ballot.
"She (Draves) took a few swipes at him (Junge) but not recently," said Bill Ballenger, a longtime pundit from Flint who writes the Ballenger Report, a political blog. "He continues to pound away." Draves, he said, was hurt by low name recognition and a late start in the race.
On the Democratic side, state Sen. Kristen McDonald Rivet, D-Bay City, is considered the likely front-runner, if only by her recent electoral success — she won her seat two years ago — and Kildee's endorsement. That said, either of these primaries could potentially be determined by which parts of the district turns out the most voters and the level of overall turnout. McDonald Rivet faces Pamela Pugh, of Saginaw, who is the president of the state Board of Education, and former Flint Mayor Matt Collier.
10TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: U.S. Rep. John James, R-Shelby Township, won this two years ago in a squeaker, beating the Democratic nominee, former Macomb County Judge Carl Marlinga, by about half a percentage point. Marlinga, of Sterling Heights — whose name identification is huge in the region, having served also as a longtime county prosecutor decades ago — is back, leading the pack of Democrats vying to replace him. (James is unopposed in the Republican primary.)
The other Democrats facing Marlinga include Emily Busch, of Oxford, (which is outside of the district; that is not a bar from running for a U.S. House seat, however, as long as a candidate is a Michigan resident) running on a message of gun control and claims that Marlinga isn't suitably supportive of abortion rights. Marlinga, though, has answered those criticisms before and has clearly indicated he supports a woman's choice to have an abortion. Also running are Tiffany Tilley, a state Board of Education member who also lives outside the district in West Bloomfield, and Warren financial planner Diane Young, who has deep contacts in local Democratic circles. Both, however, may struggle to gain traction among voters when facing Marlinga's long history in Macomb County.
If Marlinga, who is widely seen as a more moderate force in the party, wins the nomination again, Democrats will be urged strongly to put more money in this race, given that little was spent two years ago and James won by a sliver. Ed Sarpolus, a pollster with Lansing-based Target Insyght, said the surveys he has done in the district show Marlinga could have a slight edge on James. That said, James will be running as an incumbent in a district where the candidate at the top of the ticket — Trump — is expected to be popular.
"If the Democrats don't fund Marlinga (if he wins the primary as expected) they're going to lose that seat again," Sarpolus said.
3RD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: First-term U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten, D-Grand Rapids, picked up an in-party challenger this year in Salim Al-Shatel, a west Michigan businessman, who argued that Scholten should be more adamant in demanding an Israeli cease-fire, but given the district's more moderate makeup, her incumbency and her campaign's financial advantage, which, as of the end of June, was $3.4 million for her to about $3,000 for him, she shouldn't have much trouble being renominated.
On the Republican side, Paul Hudson, an East Grand Rapids lawyer and grandson of Duffy Daugherty, who won two national championships as coach of the Michigan State University Spartans in the 1960s, was running a more traditional campaign, lining up institutional and conservative support in west Michigan, while facing Grand Haven financial planner Michael Markey, who is trying to sell himself to voters as a "disrupter" in Washington after failing to make the GOP ballot for governor two years ago.
Hudson has a long list of endorsements, strongly suggestive that institutional Republicans feel he could seriously challenge Scholten in the fall. But first he'll have to get past Markey, who, as of the end of June, had outspent Hudson by a 2-to-1 margin.
13TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: First-term U.S. Rep. Shri Thanedar, D-Detroit, looked like he might be in trouble last year after he was chastised by some for taking a more pro-Israeli line, following the attacks on that country by Hamas and the Israeli counterattacks in Gaza, than might have been expected. Former state Sen. Adam Hollier, D-Detroit, who came in second in a nine-person Democratic primary for this seat to Thanedar two years ago, saw an opening and ran with it, or at least he tried to until he failed to make ballot this August for a lack of valid petition signatures.
Thanedar, an Indian immigrant and self-made millionaire, isn't out of the woods yet, though he's clearly the favorite against Detroit City Council Member Mary Waters, a perennial candidate who also served in the state House. Much of Detroit's political class is stacked against Thanedar — Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan endorsed Waters, an almost-unheard-of move when considering an incumbent congressman's reelection campaign, so it's always possible his fortunes could turn. But Thanedar has shown himself willing to spend lots of money and work hard on his own reelection campaigns and his personal story of rising up from abject poverty has been well-received. He also did well two years ago, particularly in the Downriver part of this district. There is one other candidate, Shakira Lynn Hawkins, who is in the Democratic race. While the winner will face Martell Bivings, an unopposed Republican and former business liaison for the Detroit Economic Development Corp., the winner of the Democratic primary in this district has a determinative advantage in the November general election.
Rounding out the congressional races
A bunch of primary contests remain in the races for U.S. House seats but none are expected to be particularly competitive. If that turns out to not be the case — that will be up to the voters — the Detroit Free Press will certainly take note of any notable upsets. Here's how some of those other races look in a nutshell:
1ST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: U.S. Rep. Jack Bergman, R-Watersmeet, faces Roscommon Army veteran Josh Saul in the GOP primary but has a significant edge in resources, name recognition and incumbency. Bob Lorinser, a doctor in Marquettte, faces Callie Barr, a veterans' advocate and lawyer in Traverse City in the Democratic primary. The district, which includes the Upper Peninsula and part of the northern Lower Peninsula, is seen as strongly conservative.
2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: No primary to speak of. Incumbent U.S. Rep. John Moolenaar, R-Caledonia, is running for reelection. Michael Lynch, of Alma, who works as a manager with the Saginaw Chippewa Tribe, is unopposed in the Democratic primary. The district, which covers parts of west and mid-Michigan, is staunchly Republican.
4TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: U.S. Rep. Bill Huizenga, R-Holland Township, has been representing west Michigan in Congress since 2011 and is considered the prohibitive favorite to win reelection in what is still a conservative area. He faces Holland project manager Brendan Muir in the Republican primary. Kalamazoo lawyer Jessica Swartz is unopposed in the Democratic primary in this district.
5TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: U.S. Rep. Tim Walberg, R-Tipton, is the dean of Michigan's U.S. House delegation, having served 2007-09, then since 2011. He's unopposed in the GOP primary in this south-central Michigan region, as is retired steelworker Libbi Urban, of Buchanan, in the Democratic primary. This is a staunchly Republican district.
6TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: U.S. Rep. Debbie Dingell, of Ann Arbor, is unopposed in the Democratic primary in this predominantly Democratic district in Washtenaw, Wayne and southern Oakland counties. Heather Smiley, who retired as an analyst for Ford, is unopposed in the Republican primary.
9TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Two-term U.S. Rep. Lisa McClain, of Bruce Township, is running unopposed in the Republican primary in this staunchly Republican district in northern Macomb and Oakland counties and the Thumb. Lake Orion insurance agent Clint St. Mosley is running unopposed in the Democratic primary.
11TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: Like Scholten in the 3rd District, U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Birmingham, picked up a Democratic opponent in Ferndale activist Ahmed Ghanim, who has suggested she is complicit in the deaths of innocent people in Gaza for not demanding an immediate Israeli cease-fire. Stevens, however, is a well-known and popular incumbent, having represented this Oakland County area — and now a district which includes many of metro Detroit's biggest synagogues — since 2019. She is considered the strong favorite to win the nomination and cruise to a victory in November in this predominantly Democratic district over the two Republicans running to face her, Bingham Farms attorney Charles Frangie and Bingham Farms criminal defense and personal injury lawyer Nick Somberg.
12TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT: U.S. Rep. Rashida Tlaib, D-Detroit, has been unapologetic and consistent in her demands that the U.S. force an Israeli cease-fire in Gaza and has even been censured in the House for her defense of a phrase ? "from the river to the sea" ? which some criticized as an antisemitic call for Israel's destruction. (She argued it was an aspirational call for peace in the Middle East.) That said, efforts to find someone notable to run against her in this southeastern Michigan district that includes the Arab American and Muslim communities in Dearborn were futile: She's unopposed in the Democratic primary and set to take on Linda Sawyer, a former emergency room nurse in Livonia, or James Hooper, also of Livonia, who has done missionary work. The district, however, is staunchly Democratic.
Contact Todd Spangler: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @tsspangler.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan's Senate, US House races to heat up with primary upon us
