Michigan's teacher shortage is about to get more financially complicated

Michigan teachers were more likely to leave the classroom — and Michigan public schools altogether — during the pandemic than before, according to a new study.

But school finance experts also say districts are heading for a perfect storm financially and schools could lose more staff members as federal pandemic relief aid is fully spent.

Teacher turnover in Michigan schools continued through the pandemic, and Michigan teachers were 28% more likely to leave the public school system following the 2021-22 school year than in the last full pre-pandemic school year, according to new research from the National Center for Research on Education Access and Choice in collaboration with the Education Policy Innovation Collaborative at Michigan State University. Researchers say the loss creates a long-term problem for the state in retaining and hiring qualified teachers in public school classrooms, particularly in crucial subject areas such as special education and science.

"The teachers who were most likely to leave were the novice teachers in their first three years," said Katharine Strunk, one of the researchers formerly with MSU, now dean of the graduate school of education at the University of Pennsylvania. "So those are the teachers that we know we will need to keep on rejuvenating our workforce. We saw them leave at large and higher rates in Michigan."

But staffing levels in schools may be further complicated in the coming months as school districts and boards begin setting next year's budget as federal pandemic relief funds dry up. The third and largest bucket of relief funds sent to schools through the American Rescue Plan Act must be committed by schools by September 2024.

The funds' expiration, coupled with declining enrollment, might mean fewer schools will be on the hunt for teachers and other staff members this year, forecasts Marguerite Roza, director of the Edunomics Lab at Georgetown University.

Districts this year might be "crossing their fingers and hoping this will be a big year for attrition, because they can't afford all the staff they just hired," Roza said. "There will be a lot of people who moved or ... quit and are now looking for a job going, 'Wait a minute, I thought we were in a teacher shortage. I can't find a job because no one's hiring.' "

A complex financial picture

Possible financial calamity has been foreshadowed by some layoffs and layoff notices at districts across the state in the past year. Detroit Public Schools Community District approved a budget in June 2023, eliminating 300 positions from the district, Chalkbeat Detroit reported. Planned layoffs in the Wayne-Westland Community School District were put on hold in December, but the district is still grappling with budget issues.

Many school leaders have lamented that declining enrollment across the state is partly to blame for cuts, and it has put some districts under considerable financial stress. The number of students enrolled statewide at public schools from pre-K-12 has declined 5% between this school year and 2018-19, according to state data. Some districts have been hit harder: Enrollment at Wayne-Westland, for example, has declined by 12% in those years. Detroit public schools has lost a significant number of students — a 63% decline — in a longer stretch of time, from 131,568 students in the 2005-06 school year to 48,476 students this year.

Michigan's schools are funded on a per-student basis — currently at $9,608 for the 2023-24 school year — so fewer students means less funding. And even though losses like Detroit's have been over many years, managing sustained funding losses is difficult for school finance offices.

And the decline in enrollment creates a complicated dynamic with staffing.

"In urban districts across the country, we've seen declining enrollment for a decade, and you don't see a commensurate decline in number of teachers," Strunk said.

An Edunomics analysis of state data shows that while enrollment has declined in Michigan, the number of full-time equivalent employees in the state's schools have increased, from 195,501 employees in the 2013-14 school year to 213,990 employees in the 2022-23 school year. But those numbers largely show growth in noninstructional staff members: The number of full-time equivalent teachers in the state's schools has hovered around 100,000 in recent years, according to state data.

While some teacher attrition is expected with declining public school enrollment, the departures aren't even and research has shown shortages of educators in critical subject areas. Rural areas of Michigan, in particular, have long struggled to hire.

"The problem is when, even if you have attrition, it's not the right people, right?" Roza said. "You end up losing all your math and science teachers, and you don't have anyone to teach math and science and you've got too many ceramics teachers."

An impending financial cliff

Across all three rounds of COVID-19 relief funding, public schools received $6 billion. Schools have about $1.2 billion more to spend, according to the Michigan Department of Education's COVID spend dashboard, nearly all of it from the third and final round of aid. About 48% of the money that has already been budgeted went to what was categorized as salaries and benefits. Some districts hired additional tutoring or aids to help stem learning loss. Other districts awarded bonus payments to staff members. Flint, for example, awarded $22,500 payments to staff members.

But relief money was always one-time, and once it's gone, it's gone. Which means schools will soon — if they haven't already — have fewer financial levers to pull to try to incentivize key staff members to stay or hire in concentrated high-need areas.

"We saw a lot of districts actually put that money toward maintaining teachers jobs," Strunk said.

School districts with the highest levels of students living in poverty received the most funding. And that could present a major problem for those districts as the money dries up, said Jen DeNeal, director of policy and research at The Education Trust-Midwest. EdTrust is a nonprofit advocacy organization that promotes advancement in education.

"These districts with high concentrations of poverty, they got the most money, meaning that they have had the greatest ability to shore up their staffing and shore up their programs and resources," she said. "Now they're the ones facing the biggest cliff."

The solution to saving districts from financial chaos is complicated, DeNeal said. Long term, the state should direct more funding to districts through an opportunity index, which would concentrate funding to districts with higher numbers of vulnerable students, such as English learners and those in poverty.

The money going away is "creating some havoc for school districts," Roza said. And conditions have long been complicated, particularly in hiring during the pandemic as schools flush with relief funding competed with other schools to hire the best to stem learning loss and help students academically rebound. The growing "financial headache" is not good for kids, she said.

"I'm sympathetic with how we got here," she said. "And I do think it's going to be pretty messy."

Contact Lily Altavena: [email protected].

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan's teacher shortage is about to get more financially complicated