The mid-Atlantic is in a 'flash drought': What is it, and when will relief arrive?
In June, the heat began and the rain stopped. The result for millions in the mid-Atlantic? A flash drought.
This unique summer phenomenon has many from the Carolinas to Pennsylvania wondering what just happened and when relief will arrive. Without that relief, the economy would suffer millions as crops shrivel and favorite summer activities go by the wayside.
AccuWeather experts expect this year's flash drought to have a tremendous impact on local economies, with effects stretching even into the fall months, despite the possibility the drought might already be over by then.
A flash drought is the sudden arrival of drought conditions. Drought.gov describes it as being "set in motion by lower-than-normal rates of precipitation, accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, winds, and [solar] radiation." That combination of conditions almost exclusively occurs in the summer months.
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Dry lawns, such as this one in Goode, Virginia, on July 12, 2024, are a hallmark of summertime flash droughts. (photo by Emily Young) |
Unlike long-lasting droughts, similar to the ones observed across the western United States in recent years, flash droughts are often short-term in nature and can disappear as quickly as they arrive. In the meantime, though, they can cause severe economic damage.
With effects most notable in the top layers of the soil, impacts range from dried, burned-out lawns to low flows on smaller creeks and streams to detrimental effects on agriculture and crop yields.
Other complications related to flash droughts include the necessity for municipalities to enact water-use restrictions, ban burns and issue warnings about the use of fireworks.
This year's flash drought started in a familiar way: a sudden rise in temperature and a pause in precipitation events.
On June 4, the U.S. Drought Monitor showed just a few areas with abnormally dry conditions, while most of the East was in decent shape coming out of a spring with near- or even above-normal precipitation. Later in the month, everything changed.
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The flash drought, as seen in versions of the U.S. Drought Monitor from June 4 and July 9, a span of just five weeks. |
An area of high pressure parked itself over the Southeast and mid-Atlantic beginning in the middle of June and continuing into July, which developed and prolonged a heat wave that caused temperatures most days to reach into the 90s to even near 100. It also helped to steer rain and thunderstorms away from the region, mainly to the north across the Great Lakes and New England and to the south along the Gulf coast and Florida.
The dry, hot weather worked in unison with day after day of bright sun. The rays of sunshine around the summer solstice are the strongest they are all year in this part of the world, which helps to increase the evaporation rates, more quickly removing moisture that is stored in the top layers of the ground.
The result was starkly evident in the Drought Monitor update released from just five weeks later, on July 9. Practically all of the Eastern Seaboard from northern Florida to Pennsylvania was at least abnormally dry, with Virginia and the Carolinas hit the hardest.
In Virginia, the percentage of land in drought went from 0 to over 86 percent. In South and North Carolina, land considered to be in drought ballooned from 0 to 85 and 72 percent, respectively.
A severe drought was also observed by early July in portions of Alabama, Georgia, Maryland, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and West Virginia.
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Percent of normal rainfall during the month of June 2024 (NOAA Water Prediction Service). |
By far the biggest factor for the development of the flash drought was the exceptionally dry June, especially from central North Carolina north to around the nation's capital. Most places in this region observed less than 25 percent of the historical average rainfall for the month.
Lynchburg, Virginia, was hardest hit by the dry weather, with a mere 0.04 of an inch of rain falling all of June, versus the historical average of 3.82 percent. Many places saw a little more rain, thanks to showers and thunderstorms, but that was more the exception than the rule.
With the dry weather leading up to and lasting through the Fourth of July holiday, when holiday activities take place and farmers begin to evaluate the condition of their crops, the practical and real-world effects of the flash drought have been widespread.
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Drought and heat-stricken corn is seen on a farm in Illinois before it is chopped down for feed Wednesday, July 11, 2012. Farmers in the mid-Atlantic are facing similar conditions this summer. (AP Photo/Seth Perlman) |
"It has been a rough stretch for major crops such as corn, soybeans and cotton," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Agriculture Expert Dale Mohler. "Corn has been hit the hardest as it's in the pollination period now, and that's when water needs are the greatest. There will be significant corn yield loses that cannot be reversed."
At Vaughn Farms Produce in the Pungo community of Virginia Beach, owner and farmer Robert Vaughn told local TV station WAVY about what his corn and pumpkin crop was up against in late June.
"It's no more than 4 or 5 feet tall that ... tassel, and that's when it needs the majority of the water and it's not getting it," Vaughn said. "There are going to be crop failures down here this year and [it's] something we haven't seen in eight or 10 years. It's been a dust bowl. I don't dare plant the seed because it's not going to come up."
Vaughn points out that irrigation systems, which most farms in this region do not have, are not even enough in the face of the heat.
Parched amid the flash drought conditions, many counties and communities have started to institute water restrictions, including in parts of Dauphin County, Pennsylvania; Oconee County, South Carolina; and Fauquier and Louisa counties in Virginia.
The short answer for whether relief is ahead for those dealing with the flash drought: yes, but it will be "uneven," according to AccuWeather experts.
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A rowing team glides along the Potomac River past the Washington Monument as the sun rises on another hot and humid day in Washington, D.C. (AP Photo/J. David Ake) |
As AccuWeather accurately predicted, the summer has been a hot one so far, and that is expected to continue. Working in unison with strong sunshine and periods of dry weather, the drought may continue for many; however, some uneven relief will come in the form of shower and thunderstorm activity in the short term.
"Drought levels should not worsen for the week of July 15, as some rainfall is expected," said AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok. "However, the amount of rain will not be enough to break the drought."
Some of the most significant rain in weeks moved across parts of the mid-Atlantic, to the east of the Appalachians, from Friday into Saturday of last week. A few inches of rain were observed from the eastern Carolinas north through Delmarva and into the Delaware Valley, providing a much-needed drink of water for agricultural interests. Ultimately, it was not enough rain to end the drought.
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Because of an expected lack of consistent, widespread rain and the prospect of additional heat waves through August will prolong the drought for many.
"While we are expecting an increase in rains over the next several weeks, there will still be some heat at times," said Mohler. "Soybean and cotton crops can recover better than corn, assuming the rains show up."
Mohler also suspects that fruit crops will be smaller than usual come this fall, and that peaches, which are in season now, will be hit hard.
Likely the only way to deliver a widespread, soaking rain to the East Coast in the summer and fall months is via a tropical system. Of course, the trade-off is potentially damaging winds and coastal impacts. "This area will be in search for assistance from the tropics in August to break drought," said Pastelok. "If that does not come, the drought will hold the rest of the summer into the early fall based on the forecast pattern."