Mike Braun's next hurdle is not the general election for governor. It's the GOP convention.

As the newly minted Republican nominee for Indiana governor, U.S. Sen. Mike Braun's next challenge is not the general election in November.

It's the state party convention in one month.

This won't be a run-of-the-mill convention where Braun can present his preferred running mate and convention delegates give him the nod of approval. Instead, Braun's pick for lieutenant governor ― one-term Indianapolis state Rep. Julie McGuire ― will face competition in Noblesville pastor Micah Beckwith, who's been campaigning vigorously for nearly a year. It's the first time in decades that the gubernatorial nominee's choice isn't all but guaranteed to be selected.

So in mid June, Braun's clout as the GOP nominee will be tested in an unusual set of circumstances: Will party delegates defer to Braun, a candidate who, due to the nature of a six-way race, earned the smallest vote percentage of any nominee in Indiana's gubernatorial primary history? Or will Beckwith's pavement-pounding result in a snub for the ages?

Many establishment Republicans are feeling fairly confident Braun's weight will carry the day. But they also know that delegates, who tend to lean more conservative and activist than even primary voters, have been known to upset the status quo and surprise people ― as recently as 2022, when they chose Diego Morales for Secretary of State over Gov. Eric Holcomb's choice, Holli Sullivan.

"It’s always hard to tell," said Pete Seat, a former communications director for the state party and Holcomb's 2016 campaign. "The delegates are unpredictable."

Plus, while Braun pulled out an early win on election night, he faced a constant barrage of attacks from his Republican opponents and a divided party throughout the cycle — something that most Republican gubernatorial nominees haven't had to bounce back from in years past. (That's primarily because there's usually a clear favorite or only one candidate by primary Election Day.) His opponents, mainly Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, shared a steady stream of endorsements from local Republican leaders, the types of people Braun now likely needs to court.

There's been a lot of rhetoric from the gubernatorial campaigns about unifying behind Braun ― a signal to some that a McGuire victory isn't guaranteed without some work.

Braun and whomever his running mate is will face Democratic nominee Jennifer McCormick and Libertarian Donald Rainwater in the fall.

Micah Beckwith's unusual campaign

Beckwith is not a no-namer.

He's an outspoken, ultra socially conservative pastor in Hamilton County who, as a political newcomer in 2020, placed third out of 15 candidates for the 5th Congressional District primary race. He made a name for himself lambasting Holcomb's COVID-19 lockdowns, and later, promoting an anti-transgender, anti "woke" platform. He made headlines when he joined the Hamilton East Public Library board as it was embroiled in strife over some books in its children's sections. After playing an instrumental role in passing a controversial book-relocation policy that was later rescinded, he resigned from the board to, he said, focus on his lieutenant governor campaign.

Beckwith estimates he's reached out to around 3,000 past and present delegates, from meet-and-greets to Lincoln Day dinners to coffee dates to phone banking. And he's still going: On May 20, he's holding a fundraiser for his campaign that delegates have free entry to, with special guests Rob Kendall and Casey Daniels from WIBC.

He wants delegates to have an actual choice in the matter when they choose the lieutenant governor nominee who will appear on the November ballot, as state law gives them the power to do. Rarely is there competition; typically, the gubernatorial nominee's endorsed candidate runs unopposed.

"We haven’t been honoring the system for years in Indiana. We’ve been telling the delegates who to vote for," Beckwith told IndyStar. "I think it’s wise that we see the lieutenant governor not being the employee of the governor and being the employee of the people."

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In addition to speculation about competition for the attorney general race should Todd Rokita be disqualified if his license is suspended from the pending disciplinary complaints, the competition in the lieutenant governor's race has drawn out a staggering number of candidates interested in serving as delegates: About 2,750 filed for Tuesday's primary, compared to about 2,300 in 2022. In Hamilton County, where Beckwith lives, some townships drew more than 50 candidates to fill 10 or so delegate seats ― three times as many as in 2022. For his city, Noblesville, 67 candidates filed to run for 10 seats.

"There’s a lot of people that applied to run for delegate because of the contested nature of this convention," said Hamilton County GOP chair Mario Massillamany. "It creates more energy, excitement."

In the hours since Tuesday's primary results were finalized, Beckwith's team has been tallying up how many of the roughly 1,800 successful candidates he counts among his supporters. Having looked at nearly 1,400 of them as of Wednesday afternoon, he said he's up to 330.

And he feels good about that.

"I think we got a good shot," he said.

Does Mike Braun have enough sway?

Braun and McGuire, meanwhile, have one month to catch up in terms of campaigning.

Braun doesn't see himself as starting from scratch, though: He argues that he's been molding relationships with delegates in all 92 counties during his six years as a senator.

"I don't mind the competition at all," Braun told IndyStar. "I think we’ll win the day."

Competition has been more common among the other state offices, like secretary of state and attorney general. These have a history of being unpredictable ― the 2022 convention being a major recent surprise.

Having multiple lieutenant governor candidates at a Republican state convention is far more rare. Political observers think 1996 is the last time: There were six people vying to be Republican gubernatorial nominee Stephen Goldsmith's running mate. Goldsmith didn't even try to sway the delegates: He opted not to make an endorsement and to let the delegates decide.

Part of his reasoning was there were so many candidates and no clear frontrunner. But it was also because the primary was so contentious, not unlike Braun's. Goldsmith defeated his opponent by nearly 20 percentage points, but that opponent was state party chair Rex Early, around whom many county party chairs coalesced their support ― that "it made the most sense to defer to the party in the selection, in order to show respect for their views and to bring about more reconciliation," Goldsmith told IndyStar via email.

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So while convention goers have a history of voting with the gubernatorial nominee's choice, they also haven't been truly tested in recent memory.

Still, former delegate Brad Rateike, also a former Donald Trump and Mitch Daniels staffer, thinks Braun's base of support among delegates is strong enough. Other party insiders tend to agree.

"They know that partnership matters," he said. "Sen. Braun's support from former and future GOP delegates should give you every reason to believe 2024 delegates will warmly welcome his selection and give that person the chance to talk about how they would be a strong partner in leading our state. Never confuse noise with progress and never believe that the desire to create chaos will result in chaos."

While Braun's 40% of the vote is the smallest voter mandate of any gubernatorial nominee since Indiana's governor seat began holding primaries in 1976, it still wasn't a close election ― he beat second-place Crouch by 18 percentage points. And it's likely that, had there been fewer candidates, some more of the vote share would have gone to Braun.

Goldsmith's leaving his running mate choice entirely up to the delegates wasn't entirely advantageous in the view of Mike McDaniel, who was the state party chair at the time. Running as a real team is important, he said.

"He was never really considered to be Goldsmith’s person," McDaniel said, referring to George Witwer, a publisher whom the delegates chose. Goldsmith later lost the general election to Frank O'Bannon.

That Braun named his running mate preference clear so quickly indicates his campaign is aware of how important it is to start getting McGuire's name in front of delegates.

McDaniel doesn't see Braun having an issue getting McGuire nominated. He thinks the more important task ahead for Braun is building rapport with state legislators, whose whims are far more powerful than the governor's weak veto. (The supermajority Republican legislature can easily override the governor, and has even when Republicans controls the executive branch.) McGuire, who is well-respected among legislative leadership, could help with that.

McGuire's newness to the political scene, however, may add a wildcard element to the convention, Seat said. It could be positive if delegates choose to trust Braun's judgment, or a negative if they don't and have no idea who she is.

"The winds of politics are fickle at times," he said. "If there’s something you’ve done or said that people aren’t thrilled about, they will send a message when they have the opportunity." (In 2008, for example, delegates bucked Gov. Mitch Daniels' pick for attorney general as conservative bloggers accused the governor's campaign of being "abrasive" and "divisive" during the process.)

Should Braun be forced by democracy to work with Beckwith instead of McGuire, Braun says he'll of course accept it ― as a longtime business owner and now a senator, he's no stranger to working with people who he might wish had "done it a different way."

"I think that we'll win that competition, and if by chance that doesn't work, which I think is very slim," he said, "I'll deal with it."

Contact IndyStar state government and politics reporter Kayla Dwyer at [email protected] or follow her on Twitter @kayla_dwyer17.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Will the Indiana GOP OK Mike Braun's lieutenant governor pick?