Milwaukee crime has dropped to start the year: 'Now is certainly no time to relax'

Crime in Milwaukee continued falling in the first quarter of 2024, as overall numbers dropped 10% from the same time last year, according to data Milwaukee police shared Tuesday.

Homicides were down 39% in the first quarter, dropping from 38 last year to 23 for the same period this year. Compared to the first quarter of 2022, when Milwaukee broke its homicide record, homicides are down 54%.

The promising data, which covered the start of the year through March, was presented at a press conference Tuesday. It represents some of the coldest months of the year – when crime typically slows down – and officials credited the continued decreases in homicides, shootings, car thefts and other categories to various community and city efforts.

“We’ve got every reason to applaud the latest numbers,” said Mayor Cavalier Johnson. “Across the board, Milwaukee is heading in the right direction … but now is certainly no time to relax.”

Other categories provided similar strong results as well, with nonfatal shootings down 27% in the first quarter of 2024, from 176 last year to 129 this year. Compared to the same time frame in 2022, it’s a 25% dip.

Notably, the city’s homicide clearance rate reached 83% for the first quarter of the year, compared to 74% at the start of last year.

Homicides, shootings down; clearance rate up

The quarterly statistics continue a positive trend for the city after homicides spiked in Milwaukee and throughout the country after the COVID-19 pandemic and the murder of George Floyd.

Milwaukee experienced three years of record-breaking homicides before a 20% reduction in 2023 and that drop has continued into 2024.

So far in April, which Tuesday's report did not include, there have been seven homicides in the city.

What is perhaps even more encouraging is the drop in nonfatal shootings this year – down 27% from the year before. Nonfatal shootings did not drop as much as homicides in 2023, only 4%, which puzzled many officials.

But a bigger drop this year may hint at more of a return to normalcy.

From 2020 through 2022, the city did not experience the typical seasonal fluctuations associated with violent crime. That seasonality has been more recognizable in 2023 and so far in 2024.

Norman referenced the seasonal fluctuations in recent years, describing it as a “fluid situation.”

“I will say this, these past couple of years, it didn’t make a difference if it was raining, it was sunny, it was cold, it was snowing. We still had unacceptable behavior going on in our community,” he said.

Norman said that some of the shootings occurred due to negligence among gun owners and irresponsible conflict. He said it's important the city and police continue to emphasize de-escalation training and outreach in the community to continue the trend.

“This is something to be pleased with,” Norman said. “This is not something we can say ‘we’ve made it, we’ve done it.’”

As homicides fall, it is natural for police to clear more cases, with 83% cleared so far this year.

To clear a case, an individual must be arrested, charged and turned over for prosecution, according to the FBI’s crime reporting standards. Cases can also be cleared by exceptional means. For example, when a suspect has been identified but cannot be arrested because they cannot be located or have already died.

Norman said that bolstering the detective bureau and better delegation of resources in the department have led to improved results.

Milwaukee mirroring some national crime trends

Milwaukee is one of many cities in which homicides have continued to drop in recent years, following a historic national increase in 2020.

Preliminary national numbers from the FBI suggest homicides in the country fell 13% in 2023. And so far in 2024, homicides in 208 cities have fallen 20% from the year before, according to Jeff Asher, who runs AH Datalytics, a data analysis firm.

According to data from AH Datalytics, cities like Chicago have seen a six percent drop in homicides – and that’s at the low end. Other major cities have followed suit with Milwaukee’s figures, with Philadelphia and Baltimore dropping 37% compared to last year at this date.

Alex Piquero, a professor of sociology and criminology at the University of Miami, attributed that to two major developments. First, the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the murder of George Floyd have eased significantly. Second, communities across the nation, including Milwaukee, have ramped up programs that prevent community violence.

That combination has also resulted in nationwide drops in robberies, assaults and other kinds of crime.

“I think you have that happening at the same time,” Piquero said. “It produces this overall effect on just about every other crime. It’s pretty substantial. It’s happening almost everywhere, but not everywhere.”

Other crime drops too, but domestic violence issues linger

Crimes like robbery, theft and other categories followed the decline as well.

Thefts dropped by 14% from last year’s first quarter, and 29% from 2022’s first quarter. Meanwhile, robbery followed as well, dropping 14% in this year’s first quarter; and 11% from 2022.

Johnson credited an “all the above approach” to the positive statistics, noting efforts like community programs aimed at getting city youth into positive activities and increased efforts to engage the public beyond traditional media channels like texting are paying off.

Johnson and Norman also announced a new program that encourages residents to turn in unwanted firearms at district locations. Norman said the department would release more details at a later date.

“We are using an all the above approach to reach out to families and reach out to young people to make sure that they’re engaged. And when they’re engaged, they’ll be safe,” Johnson said.

Despite the good news at Tuesday’s press conference, domestic violence lingered over the positive statistics. In April, there have been three domestic violence-related homicides and one attempted homicide.

It prompted a community advocate news conference at Sojourner Family Peace Center on April 12.

"Each one of these acts of violence are 100% preventable," said Melissa Edwards, a local survivor of domestic violence. "You can leave anytime. You don't have to wait until he physically harms you or threatens you. You can change the trajectory of your life, just like I changed mine."

At the Tuesday press conference, Norman said data on domestic violence-related crimes was not yet available. Still, officials said tackling the issue requires community and city support. Ashanti Hamilton, the director of the city's Office of Community Wellness and Safety, said the city is looking at areas where there are service gaps in assisting victims and finding ways to address perpetrators.

“As we continue to move forward and hone in on where those gaps and services are, how to better serve victims … that’s a very specific area that a growing coalition of folks are looking at for the city of Milwaukee in particular,” Hamilton said.

Johnson said the recent domestic violence issues underscore the need for measures to be put in place at the state and federal level that prohibit people with criminal backgrounds from owning guns.

“These folks should not have their hands on guns,” he said. “When they do, they cause death, harm and destruction.”

The Journal Sentinel’s Elliot Hughes contributed reporting to this story.

This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Crime in Milwaukee dips to start year, with progress in shootings