Is Minnesota a swing state? What to know after Tim Walz was named Harris' VP pick

Kamala Harris picked Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential running mate on Tuesday, shining a national spotlight on the outspoken Midwestern Democrat from a reliably blue state while adding a key ally to her fast-moving campaign for the presidency.

Walz, 60, brings political acuity, suburban-and-rural appeal, and progressive patriotism to a competition where all three criteria are seen as helpful for Democrats to clinch a 2024 win against the Republican ticket of former President Donald Trump and Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio.

More: Tim Walz is Kamala Harris' VP pick: Minnesota governor named running mate: Live updates

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The pair will face off against the Republican nominees this November, and Walz’s place on the Democratic ticket is raising questions about whether it will affect the race nationally. Minnesota is not considered a swing state, but Trump has insisted that it’s a state he could win in 2024. That is unlikely.

The last time the "Land of 10,000 Lakes" went red in a presidential election was when a majority of Minnesotans voted for former President Richard Nixon in 1972.

“Minnesota has generally been a safe state for Democrats, so it is less critical than Pennsylvania or Arizona, but it has been trending more competitive over the last few elections,” said James Riddlesperger, a professor of political science at Texas Christian University.

It’s also a state Trump falsely claims he won in 2020. That year, 52.4% of Minnesotans voted for Biden, while 45.3% voted for Trump. In his 2018 race for governor, Walz showed he could win over some non-Democrat voters, securing 53.8% of the vote in comparison to the 42.4% his Republican rival earned.

Despite holding one of the longest Democratic presidential win streaks in the country, some of those elections were close calls, so Democrats in the North Star State have been preparing for a tight race this fall.

Before Joe Biden exited the race, a June KARE11, MPR News, and Star Tribune poll found that 44.5% of Minnesotans said they were planning to vote blue in the presidential election, while 40.6% said they would cast their vote for Trump with a margin of error of ± 3.5%. With Harris and Walz now on the Democratic ticket, those numbers could change dramatically.

But the popular vote doesn’t determine the outcome of presidential elections; the Electoral College does. Based on the number of members of Congress, each of the 50 states and Washington, D.C. receives 538 electoral votes. Candidates need to secure 270 votes to win, and Minnesota has 10.

The states that are considered swing states this year are those that flipped parties in the presidential election between 2016 and 2020. They include Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia. Nebraska, Nevada, and North Carolina are also part of the conversation when discussing battleground states.

Rachel Barber is a 2024 election fellow at USA TODAY, focusing on politics and education. Follow her on X, formerly Twitter, at @rachelbarber_

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Is Minnesota a swing state? What to know as Walz joins Harris as VP