More people moved to Polk County in 2023 than any other county in US, census data show

The sale of citrus groves and other agricultural land for housing developments has helped propel Polk County to the top of the list of counties nationwide with the most people moving in from other areas in the U.S., the latest 2023 census data shows.

In data released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau, Polk County saw a net domestic migration of 26,029 in 2023, the highest in the United States. Two other Florida communities made the top 10 for domestic migration: Pasco County, with 23,750, and Marion County with 15,167.

In total numeric growth, which includes net migration plus births and deaths, Polk County placed fifth among U.S. counties in the U.S, with 29,906 more people in July 2023 than in the same month in 2022.

“Almost all the growth in Polk County — 88% — was driven by domestic migration, or people moving from another part of the U.S.,” an Associated Press report citing census data said.

“Only four other counties in metro Houston, metro Dallas, and Phoenix grew by more people, thanks to their higher numbers of births outnumbering deaths,” the AP report said.

Among metro areas, the Lakeland-Winter Haven area was second in the nation in annual percentage growth in 2023, growing from 788,382 in July 2022 to 818,330 in July 2023 for a 3.8% growth rate. The top growing metro area by percentage was Wildwood-The Villages, about 45 minutes north, with 4.7% growth. It went from 144,767 in July 2022 to 151,565 in July last year. Ocala placed fourth in annual percentage growth with 3.4%, growing from 396,437 to 409,959 people in that time span.

While the Lakeland-Winter Haven metro area neatly encompasses all of Polk County, the same isn't true elsewhere. Metro areas often encompass multiple counties with social and economic connections.

In total numeric growth, three Florida metro areas placed in the top 10. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford placed fourth, adding 54,916 for a population of 2,817,933. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater was fifth, adding 51,622 people for a total of 3,342,963. And Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach came in 10th with 43,387 more people, bring its population to 6,183,199.

Polk County's allure

Nearly equidistant from Orlando and Tampa, Polk County offers more house for less money, and it is within a reasonable commute to the major metropolitan areas. Most of the growth in Polk County is concentrated in the northeast area, around Haines City, Davenport and Poinciana, closest to the theme parks.

“In short order, Polk County has come to have fewer orange groves along Interstate 4 and more subdivisions for local service workers as well as distribution warehouses for on-demand deliveries for residents in both metropolitan areas,” the AP reported.

As a blueberry farmer, Polk County Commission Chairman Bill Braswell understands the pressures of urbanization on the county's agricultural lands.

“For decades, the citrus industry has been the backbone of our county's economy, providing livelihoods for thousands of families and contributing significantly to our local tax base," Braswell said. "However, the devastating effects of citrus greening and our reliance on foreign imports have left the industry grappling with an uncertain future.

"Selling to developers is not merely a financial transaction; it's a difficult choice made out of necessity to adapt to changing circumstances," he said. "It allows farmers to reinvest in their future. Polk County supports these farmers in their future endeavors as well as the prosperity of all of our citizens.”

'The numbers aren't that surprising'

When asked about the new census data, Katie Worthington Decker, senior vice president of the Lakeland Economic Development Council, said, “All the same reasons Polk County has grown in population over the last 5 years are still true today, which is why the numbers aren’t that surprising.

“I agree with the assessment on Northeast Polk, which even compared to Lakeland has experienced greater increases in single family and multifamily units,” she said.

Citing the MLS for east Polk County, Worthington Decker said, “It shows that the average sales price for a home in east Polk County is $304,000 for January 2024 and their level of inventory has increased.”

By comparison, “Lakeland’s average home sales price is $366K and there are not as many months of inventory available,” she said.

Statewide, a recent study by Architecture Lab using the Zillow Home Value Index showed Florida coming in second place among the 50 U.S. states on a list of the highest percentage of home value increases.

Florida home values grew by 164.37% 2013 to 2023, the Architecture Lab report said. In 2013, the average value was $159,567.

County Commissioner George Lindsey said Thursday's release of census data “confirms what we already know, that we're growing rapidly.”

“These second- and third-generation citrus growers were caught in the crunch of citrus issues they've been facing for the last decade,” Lindsey said. “So as that industry moves south and moves out of the county; those lands, those property owners, have private property rights and those owners are converting to development of some sort.”

Roads and infrastructure

With growth comes pressure on infrastructure such as roads, schools and utilities.

“I think the board has done a credible job of staying ahead on most of the infrastructure,” Lindsey said. “But where we are woefully inadequate is transportation because there is no long-term plan on transportation and it’s not going to get any better.”

Road projects that only recently have gone from the county’s unfunded list to its funded list took 10 to 15 years of waiting until funding was available, he said.

Despite support from Lindsey and city officials countywide, his colleagues on the County Commission declined to place a referendum on the ballot for a half-cent sales tax for transportation improvements. Lindsey said he hopes the county's funding requests with the state and federal governments to improve parallel roads along the U.S. 27 and U.S. 98 corridors will come through to help with demand for roadways to and from Interstate 4.

Creek Ranch: State agrees to purchase and preserve entire property in Northeast Polk

Another measure of rapid growth in Polk County has been tax revenues. Lindsey said, the tax collector’s office has reported property tax revenue increases in the previous two years by an average of 16.5% to 17%, but those increases are projected to fall to an 8% increase for the 2024-25 fiscal year. The anticipated decline is from recent mortgage interest rate increases slowing sales of homes.

From the Winter Haven Chamber of Commerce, Sara Beth Wyatt said, “Growth brings a world of opportunity, when it comes to new businesses moving into town.”

Wyatt, who is also a Polk County School Board member, added, “While growing pains can sometimes be uncomfortable, we are proud to live in a community that recognized the need for additional infrastructure and amenities – housing, expanded roads and traffic patterns, additional schools and hospitals, designated greenspace etc – and is already implementing solutions.”

The AP also spoke with Matt Joyner, a seventh-generation Polk County resident and executive vice-president and CEO at Florida Citrus Mutual.

"Subdivision growth has been springing up and it happens in such a manner that you don't always notice it. But when you are stuck in traffic, that's when you really pay attention that it's going on," Joyner told the AP about the influx of new residents to Polk County.

Despite losing citrus groves to development, Polk County has held onto its leadership spot in citrus because many of the citrus growers who sold their land for home building moved their operations to the southern part of the county, where citrus groves are still thriving, Joyner told the AP.

And as citrus trees bloom, there are still plenty of places in Polk to catch that sweet smell.

"Everywhere you go right now, the groves are snow white and the smell is sweet," Joyner said. "It reminds you of the old days."

This article originally appeared on The Ledger: Polk led the nation for new residents in 2023, census data show