The most important debate this week isn’t the VP debate. It’s for the Senate race in Montana

On Tuesday, Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz will square off in New York for the only vice presidential debate of the election. Polling from Prolific exclusive to The Independent shows the debate has a chance to tip the scales.

But in truth, whoever wins the White House will not be able to do much if they do not control the Senate, which not only passes bills, but also ratifies treaties and most importantly confirms cabinet and judicial nominees.

That is why both Democrats and Republicans are pouring in money to determine Montana’s Senate race results. Senator Jon Tester, the Democratic incumbent who first won the seat in 2006, is running against Tim Sheehy, a retired Navy SEAL. Polling shows Democrats lead in Senate races with incumbents in Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, as well as in open Senate races in Michigan and Arizona.

But Democrats faced a major blow when Senator Joe Manchin — the former Democrat-turned-independent Senator from West Virginia, a state where every county voted for Donald Trump — announced last year that he would not seek re-election, almost guaranteeing the seat would fall into Republican hands. That left Democrats with only 50 Senate seats, and few opportunities to flip seats save for longshot attempts in Florida and Texas, and turned the spotlight on Montana’s race.

On Monday evening, Tester and Sheehy traded barbs in a debate at the University of Montana at Missoula on everything from abortion to immigration to health care.

The debate focused heavily on reproductive rights given that Montanans will vote on a constitutional amendment that would codify abortion rights, which Tester said he would support.

“I believe women should be, should be able to make their own health care decision,” Tester. “It shouldn't be the federal government. It shouldn't be a bureaucrat. It shouldn't be a judge. Women should be able to make their own health care decisions. That's what Montanans like.”

Tester sought to criticize Sheehy for previously opposing the amendment being on the ballot. But Sheehy tried to pivot by saying that he supported exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother and trotted out a known lie, claiming that Tester and Democrats are extremists wanting abortion up until the moment of birth.

“When a baby is born alive, they refuse to enshrine protection for that life,” he said, a common talking point that former president Donald Trump has also made, which is not true and Tester called “total bunk.”

“It's a lie. It doesn't happen,” he said. “Those lives are already protected. Tim, you know it, you're saying it to try to politicize this issue more than it already is.”

Republicans think they have a decent shot at winning the Montana race. Senator Steve Daines, Montana’s junior senator, serves as the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and played a major role in clearing the field for Sheehy to avoid a bruising primary. In addition, the Cook Political Report recently changed the rating in Montana’s Senate race from “Toss-up” to “Lean Republican.”

Sheehy attacked Tester on immigration, which has become a top-of-mind issue for many voters, saying it contributed to the increasing cost of housing and sought to tie Tester to Vice President Kamala Harris.

Tester in turn tried to hit Sheehy for opposing a bill that would have tightened restrictions at the US-Mexico border, though Sheehy noted he was not a senator at the time.

“They'll point to a bill that maybe would have done something that didn't pass, and have yet another messaging opportunity to distract from the issue that they selectively and intentionally opened the border, stood by and let it stay wide open for years,” Sheehy said.

Montana voted for Trump by double digits in 2016 and 2020. And Trump has frequently criticized Tester — who as the top Democrat on the Veterans Affairs Committeee, sank Trump’s nominee to lead the department in 2018. In August, Trump traveled to Montana to hold a rally for Sheehy.

During his closing remarks, Sheehy pointed to Tester’s opposition to Trump.

“He also voted to impeach Donald Trump twice. [He] said on CNN, we should punch him in the face” Sheehy said.

Monday’s debate was likely the final direct match up between Tester and Sheehy. But while all eyes will be on the debate in New York, Big Sky Country might determine the fate of either Trump or Harris’s agenda.