Narrowing race shows Tammy Baldwin with a slight lead over Eric Hovde in new Marquette poll
With the election less than a week away, Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin holds a narrow lead over Republican challenger Eric Hovde, according to a new Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin voters released Wednesday.
Baldwin leads Hovde among likely voters by 51%-49%, the poll found. That is within the poll's margin of error.
"It's a close race for sure," said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette poll. He added that the race has "been tightening for a while."
These new survey numbers are a dramatic change from the last Marquette poll, which had Baldwin in front by 7 percentage points over Hovde among registered and likely voters in late September. Both campaigns disputed the results, suggesting the contest was much closer than that. Most other polls at the time also had the contest within their margin of error.
As of Tuesday, Baldwin led Hovde by 0.4 percentage points in the Real Clear Politics average of the last seven polls since Oct. 9. By contrast, the Democratic incumbent held a lead of 7.8 points over the GOP challenger on June 30 — just four months ago — in the Real Clear Politics average.
In the latest Marquette poll, Baldwin is viewed favorably by 45% and unfavorably by 50%, with 5% expressing no opinion.
Hovde is viewed favorably by 36%, and unfavorably by 48%. About 15% of voters had no opinion of him.
Franklin said both candidates have been hit by a deluge of negative advertising, driving up their unfavorable ratings. Outside groups have spent more than $100 million in the race.
"The race is tightening in terms of perceptions (of the two candidates) as well," Franklin said.
When the Senate ballot includes independent candidates, the Marquette poll found that Baldwin receives 49%, Hovde 47%, Phil Anderson, the “Disrupt the Corruption Party” candidate, 2%, and Thomas Leager, of the “America First” Party, 1%, among likely voters.
The race is closely watched as one that could help determine the balance of power in the Senate, where Baldwin is seeking her third term.
The new poll surveyed 834 registered voters, between Oct. 16-24. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. There were 753 likely voters, with the same margin of error.
The Marquette poll released Wednesday is the fourth one conducted since Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris replaced President Joe Biden at the top of the ticket against Republican former President Donald Trump.
This is the first Marquette poll since Baldwin and Hovde met in a contentious debate hosted by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association Foundation at WMTV-TV in Madison on Oct. 18. Baldwin declined to participate in any additional statewide debates.
(This story has been updated to include more information.)
Contact Daniel Bice at (414) 313-6684 or [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @DanielBice or on Facebook at fb.me/daniel.bice.
This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Marquette poll shows Tammy Baldwin with slim lead over Eric Hovde