New Yahoo News/YouGov poll: Just 28% of Americans say assassination attempt 'changed Trump for the better'

One of the major themes of last week’s Republican National Convention was that the party’s three-time nominee, former President Donald Trump, had been transformed — in a good way — by the assassination attempt a few days earlier in Butler, Pa.

“When Trump stood up after being shot in the face, bloodied, and put his hand up — that was a transformation,” conservative pundit Tucker Carlson said while onstage in Milwaukee. “Everything was different after that moment. Everything. This convention is different. The nation is different. The world is different. Donald Trump is different.”

But according to a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, most Americans disagree. Just 28% say that the shooting has changed Trump “for the better” — while a majority (51%) say either that it hasn’t changed him at all (44%) or that it has changed him “for the worse” (7%).

The survey of 1,743 U.S. adults was conducted from July 19 to 22, immediately following the convention. Its results suggest that one of the most eventful periods in recent U.S. history — a period that began with the assassination attempt, continued with the vice-presidential nomination of Sen. JD Vance of Ohio and ended with President Biden dropping out of the race — has had little effect on Trump’s political standing.

No convention 'bounce'

In the past, presidential candidates have tended to enjoy a post-convention “bounce.” But Trump remains stuck at 46% in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with the current frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, Vice President Kamala Harris, who also polls at 46%.

In both 2016 and 2020, Trump won less than 47% of the vote; that still appears to be his ceiling. The last time a Yahoo News/YouGov survey pitted Trump against Harris, in early July, he polled at 47% and she polled at 45%.

Trump’s favorable rating has increased slightly (from 39% to 43%) since the previous Yahoo News/YouGov survey, which was conducted after his June 27 debate with Biden. His unfavorable rating has fallen by a few points as well (from 56% to 53%).

But this mostly reflects a reversion to Trump’s normal numbers rather than some sort of new breakthrough; his favorable rating was actually higher in January (45%), March (45%) and April (44%). Republicans and Republican-leaning independents — among whom Trump’s favorable rating ticked up from 83% to 88% — account for most of the shift.

The shooting, the convention and the VP pick do appear to have had one statistically significant impact: a 5-point increase (from 21% to 26%) in the number of Americans giving Trump a “very favorable” rating, the highest level since late 2020. But again, that change occurred entirely among Republicans and Republican leaners, whose very favorable rating of Trump has risen from 49% to 58% since early July. Recent events have not improved the former president’s very favorable rating among Democrats (2%) or independents who lean toward neither party (10%).

America the polarized

To put Trump’s current numbers in perspective, then-President Ronald Reagan’s job-approval rating increased by 7 points (from 60% to 67% approve) after he was shot and wounded by John Hinckley Jr. in 1981 — with significant gains among Democrats (from 41% to 51% approve) and independents (from 61% to 69% approve ).

Partisan polarization has largely put an end to swings of that sort; most people now stick to their political “team” no matter what.

Perceptions of the recent Republican National Convention illustrate this point. Slightly more than one-third of Americans (36%) rated the RNC excellent or good — but about the same number (35%) rated it fair or poor. (Another 28% did not watch or follow the convention in any way.) Reflecting the self-contradictory nature of Trump’s speech — which toggled between calls to heal the “discord and division in our society” and attacks on “crazy Nancy Pelosi” — about one-quarter of Americans considered it mostly unifying (26%) and one-quarter considered it mostly divisive (25%). In total, just 30% of Americans watched some or all of the convention — and nearly two-thirds of them (62%) were Republicans or Republican leaners.

In other words, last week’s spectacle did not change many minds.

Perceptions of the July 13 shooting follow a similar pattern. Nearly twice as many Republicans (53%) as Democrats (28%) say they’ve followed news of the assassination attempt “very closely,” and nearly all of those who believe the shooting changed Trump for the better — a group that includes 64% of 2020 Trump voters and 62% of Republicans — already support him politically. Barely any Biden voters (4%) or Democrats (5%) agree.

Could Vance help?

When Trump offered Vance a spot on the ticket, he told the Ohio senator it was because “you can help me win … some of these Midwestern states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and so forth."

But for now, at least, Vance’s political impact is unclear. Slightly more Americans say that picking Vance was the right decision (30%) than say it was the wrong decision (25%) — but even more are not sure (45%). And while Republicans (62%) are far more likely than Democrats (9%) or independents (27%) to think Vance was the right choice, a significant share (31%) remain uncertain.

At just 39, Vance would be the youngest veep since Richard Nixon; he’s served less than two years in the U.S. Senate. Perhaps as a result, only 29% of Americans say he’s “ready to serve as president if necessary.” Forty-one percent say the same about Harris.

It remains to be seen if more exposure to Vance will help or hurt the GOP ticket. To test that question, Yahoo News and YouGov asked respondents whether they agree or disagree with eight different statements the senator has made in recent years. (The statements were edited slightly for clarity and consistency and not attributed to Vance.)

Only one of Vance’s statements earned majority agreement: We need to apply some broad based tariffs, especially on goods coming in from China. We need to protect American industries from all of the competition (61% agree, 24% disagree).

Next was Joe Biden’s open border is killing Americans (48% agree, 41% disagree).

On abortion, Vance’s old position — I would like abortion to be illegal nationally — is extremely unpopular (25% agree, 64% disagree). His newer position — I’d like abortion to be primarily a state issue. Ohio is going to want to have a different abortion policy from California, from New York — breaks even (40% agree, 42% disagree).

Finally, Americans tend not to see eye to eye with Vance on Ukraine, the 2020 election or the federal bureaucracy:

• I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another (23% agree, 64% disagree)

• I think the election was stolen from Trump (32% agree, 57% disagree)

• An incoming president should fire every single mid-level bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state and replace them with loyal people (32% agree, 49% disagree)

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The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,743 U.S. adults interviewed online from July 19 to 22, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2020 election turnout and presidential vote, baseline party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Baseline party identification is the respondent’s most recent answer given prior to Nov. 1, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democratic, 27% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.8%.